Does Afghanistan Need a Big Army? Posted by Michael Cohen

A couple of days ago I highlighted a recent Pentagon report about the weakness of the Afghan Army; and a few DA readers e-mailed me off-line to suggest that things were a bit more nuanced than that otherwise desultory report suggested. As one person put it to me, "Are they a competent, First World force? Hell, no. But they don't have to be. There's a small--very small--ray of hope there, but the ANSF isn't quite as disastrous as many reports make them seem." Point taken. 

But it raised for me another issue that perhaps doesn't get enough attention.  Everyone (this blogger included) seems to take for granted the notion that we need to build up the Afghan Army and police force. General McChrystal has talked about a force of 240,000 soldiers and 160,000 police; in congressional testimony last month General Mullen slightly trimmed those sails with a call for a force of 170,000 ANSF by July 2011. 

The issue here is that, as I pointed out the other day, these numbers are completely insane. Even my offline interlocutors agree that these numbers are utterly unrealistic - and what's worse police training lags even further behind army training (even though from the perspective of fighting a counter-insurgency, police training is probably more important). 

Afghanistan is a country with staggeringly high levels of illiteracy; it's the second most corrupt country in the world; it has little tradition of a professionalized military and most important the Afghan government doesn't have close to the revenue to pay for a military of the size being considered. The current ANSF is approximately 90,000 - and there lots of problems with them like they've been unable to in any significant way support US operations in Southern Afghanistan. What makes anyone think that we can easily double the size of the force . . . or more important that we even should?

Does Afghanistan really need a 170,000 man army or a 240,000 man army or a 400,000 army - or do they perhaps need a better trained 90,000 man army that can protect the country from an enemy that seems to be no bigger than 20,000 fighters? If the US and ISAF are going to rely more on local militias than what is the strategic rationale for a big, centralized Afghan Army? Granted those big numbers look rather sexy, but one can't help but fear that we are building a paper tiger military with potentially unreliable units that will be unable to protect the country once we leave.

And let me ask another question to which I don't really know the answer - how does Pakistan feel about the idea of a 170,000 man army on their Western border possibly commanded by a government that many in Islamabad seem to think is an Indian stooge? I haven't really seen any serious commentary on this issue, but I can't imagine this makes the Pakistanis very happy or terribly inclined to crack down on the Afghan Taliban safe havens in their country.

 

In the end this gets back to the issue of what we are trying to accomplish in Afghanistan; is our goal to stabilize all of Afghanistan? Is it to defeat the Taliban insurgency? Or is it to leave a central government in Kabul that can maintain a semblance of authority and hold off a Taliban take-over of the country?

It seems to me that if the latter is your goal, a smaller, more competent army is what Afghanistan needs. But if you have ambitious goals, then you want a big army with gaudy six figure numbers. But then how would you square those ambitious goals with a political leadership (the White House) that wants to send no more troops and wants to start handing over responsibilities to the Afghan military in 18 months? You can't . . . and that is the problem.

Once again it seems that we have a crucial disconnect between ends and means with well-worn military tactics driving strategy. The White House seems focused on a more restrained mission and the military - as is its wont - wants to go big with ambitious goals for Afghanistan's future. And so the strategic incoherence continues.  

Comments

[ps3 spiele]

It is good that someone writes articles which really matters something.Thanks for such a great article.I has got the information that The most significant challenge to rapidly expanding the Afghan National Security Forces is a lack of competent and professional leadership at all levels, and the inability to generate it rapidly...

[peppermint tea]

Hi,
Fighting in Afghanistan does what exactly about combating that? Until there are sane immigration policies, AQ will continue to be amongst us and launching attacks.However, Obama’s latest move — sending 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan — places him at odds with many of his most ardent supporters in Congress.

[Pallet Racking]

http://www.racking-shelving.com

http://www.t-racking.com
http://www.cold-store-equipment.com

as a whole contractor for cold store equipment, design, manufacturing, installation.

professional racking & shelving manufacturer, pallet racking, drive in racking,
cantilever racking, longspan shelving, dexion racking,

[sdfsdf]

professional racking & shelving manufacturer, pallet racking, drive in rackingshort black ugg boots,
cantilever rackingugg boots sand, longspan shelving, dexion racking,

[john]

buy tramadol
good article

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[cheap coach bags]

Great comments! You are so nice, man! You never know how much i like'em!

[rado watches]

If you have PANERAI Watches , I still have my idea to achieve.

[seslisohbet]

lt is good that someone writes articles which really matters something.Thanks for such a great article.I has got the information that The most significant challenge to rapidly expanding the Afghan National Security Forces is a lack of competent and professional leadership at all levels, and the inability to generate it rapidly

[sesli sohbet]

Thnx Editors..sesli sohbet sesli chat

[güzel sözler]

Simdi şarkı sözleri sitesinde ozgun icerigimizle tek geceriz. ek olarak menüde şebnem ferah şarkı sözleri - emre aydın şarkı sözleri - hande yener şarkı sözleri ceza şarkı sözleri - konserler - sagopa kajmer şarkı sözleri gibi cesitlerde bulabilirsiniz

[Vibram five fingers]

Different from traditional shoes, vibram five fingers is more lighter and comfortable.When you wearing five fingers shoes you will find that your five fingers of each foot are not tied up by shoes.What's more is the five fingers shoes help you keep the health balance well,and good for your healthy.Vibram shoes which made by high quality matirials and superb technology allow you feeling nature and comfortable when you clibing ,running or only just have a walk after dinner. Vibram fivefingers is a good trademark,it's products is heated saled on the net,and the company of it is good reputation,.welcome to visit our store.

[wholesale cheap lingerie]

Everything is very open and very clear explanation of issues. was truly information. Your website is very useful. Thanks for sharing.

[QodesQoM]

Türkiyenin ilk Hiphop Sitesi Hiphop, Gekko G Fan Sitesi Gekko G, Mask animasyon thank you very good site

[FFXIV Gil]

Are you fighting in Final Fantasy XIV for FFXIV Gil or Final Fantasy XIV Gil?
Can you suffer yourself being called newbie in FFXIV Gil game?
Are you seeking unofficial Buy FFXIV Gil cheats or Final Fantasy XIV guides in order to make Final Fantasy XIV Gil faster?
Can you get millions of Cheap FFXIV Gil in one day?
Even if you know how to farm Buy Final Fantasy XIV Gil you have to prepare enough Final Fantasy XIV Power Leveling first to buy height class Final Fantasy XIV Items, to upgrade your Final Fantasy XIV characters.
Buy aika gold
Then why not Buy FFXIV Gil from us?
In Final Fantasy XIV it's the fastest way FF14 Gil,for you to get rich. We are online 24 hours a day ready and 7 days one week to power up your FFXIV Gil accounts with FFXIV Gil. Here is the best place for the Final Fantasy XIV Online players to buy your Final Fantasy XIV Gil.
We are the professional website in FFXIV GIL sale.FFXIV GIL here,We are professional FFXIV Power Leveling online. We update price every single day to make sure we are the lowest in the market.(we don't compare price with scam sites which uses unbelievable low price to deceive.)
Our slogan:Cheapest price, Fastest delivery, Best service!

Cheap aika gold
In the 2 years we are in this field , AIKA Goldbuilt many business with tens of thousands of customers. They are very satisfied with our service.So if you want to get a log of Cheap FFXIV Gil ,no doubt ,come to our website to buy. Our customer service is ready for you on line now!(GM MMO)

[louis vuiton belts]

The pundits' second thoughts nike zapatos
nike Schuhe should carry the cargo of their previous assumptions, heady projections and salient selling

[designer handbags on sale]

as is its wont - wants to go big with ambitious goals for Afghanistan's future. And so the strategic incoherence continues.

[Küptaş]

as is its wont - wants to go big with ambitious goals for Afghanistan's future. And so the strategic incoherence continues.

[knockoff handbags]

i am glad to study your opinion. m41414 Keepall 55, m41416 Keepall 50, m41522 Speedy 40, m41528 Speedy 25, 219704, m40249 artsy mm, m40259 artsy gm, M45257 Messenger Bag, M40156 Neverfull MM, m40144 Tivoli GM

[冷夜]

ont - wants to go big with ambitious goals for Afgha

[seks shop]

Thanks for such a great article.I has got the information that The most significant challenge to rapidly expanding the Afghan National Security Forces is a lack of competent and professional leadership at all levels, and the inability to generate it rapidly

[my slimmer]

I’ve been looking for something like this! Thanks for sharing this great gülhatmi balı tool!