With Allies Like These . . . Pt. 3 Posted by Michael Cohen

My apologies for beating a dead horse, but today in the Wall Street Journal comes further confirmation that the Pakistanis have no real interest in going after the Quetta Shura or any other Afghan Taliban safe havens in Pakistan:

The success of the U.S. surge in Afghanistan hinges, to a significant extent, on whether U.S. officials can persuade Pakistan to crack down on Afghan insurgents on its side of the border, senior U.S. officials said.

But while the U.S. is stepping up pressure on Pakistan to widen the scope of an offensive against the Taliban, Pakistani officials say the militants attacking their own people must be their primary focus.

This point is bolstered by similar report in the Washington Post and McClatchy. This whole discussion reminds me in part of some of the discussion BWP (Before West Point) about how the US needed to stay in Afghanistan in order to steady the Pakistanis hand - and provide support - for their fight against jihadist terror. Well the Pakistanis seem quite interested in going after Pakistan Taliban who continue to wreak havoc in their country. The Afghan Taliban who wreak havoc in another country. Not so much. For some reason people seem to be forgetting the fact that the Pakistanis have agency here - and just like the US they are able to assess their national security interests and act accordingly (actually you could say they do a far better job of it than the United States does).

For the past two months, Pakistan's military has been driving against the Pakistan Taliban -- an offshoot of the Afghan movement -- in the tribal area of South Waziristan, in what U.S. officials describe as a welcome campaign. Afghan Taliban havens in Pakistan's northwestern tribal areas and southwestern province of Baluchistan haven't been attacked.

With those sanctuaries intact, "our fear is that no matter how many boots we put on the ground [in Afghanistan], the enemy still has a place from where it can regroup, rearm and strategize," said a senior U.S. military commander overseeing operations in Afghanistan.

But Pakistan so far has no plans to move against Afghan Taliban havens in its territory.

Pakistani officials say their first priority is to consolidate control in South Waziristan -- and that doing so will weaken the Afghan Taliban taking refuge in neighboring areas.

They also fear the U.S. surge could further destabilize Pakistan by angering the 27 million ethnic Pashtuns who straddle the border. The Taliban is overwhelmingly a Pashtun movement.

"The U.S. wants the Pakistani military to fight all Taliban factions ... without an understanding of the ground reality," complained a senior Pakistani military official.

Yes and the 'ground reality' is that the Pakistani government views the Pakistan Taliban as an existential threat; it views the Afghan Taliban as a strategic asset. I give the Obama Administration all the credit in the world for pushing the Pakistanis on this issue, but the resistance we're getting should tell us something about the possibilities of success in Afghanistan. If the Pakistanis don't move against the Afghan Taliban safe havens this whole thing isn't going to work. But look don't believe me - believe David Petraeus:

(To make) the really significant progress in Afghanistan that will be necessary over time... it would be very helpful if additional pressure could be put (by Pakistan) on the leadership of the elements that are causing problems in Afghanistan"

Comments

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I have gone thought this post and just wanted to say as I look at the operation in South Waziristan...Something like 600 Taliban people and miscreants were eliminated in this push.Petraeus praised Pakistani operations including that in South Waziristan, but they mainly focused on Pakistani, not Afghan, Taliban groups.

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