With Allies Like These . . . Pt. 2 Posted by Michael Cohen

Today comes additional word that efforts by the US to get the Pakistani government to crack down on Afghan Taliban safe havens in Pakistan are not going smoothly:

Demands by the United States for Pakistan to crack down on the strongest Taliban warrior in Afghanistan, Siraj Haqqani, whose fighters pose the biggest threat to American forces, have been rebuffed by the Pakistani military, according to Pakistani military officials and diplomats.

The Obama administration wants Pakistan to turn on Mr. Haqqani, a longtime asset of Pakistan’s spy agency who uses the tribal area of North Waziristan as his sanctuary. But, the officials said, Pakistan views the entreaties as contrary to its interests in Afghanistan beyond the timetable of President Obama’s surge, which envisions drawing down American forces beginning in mid-2011.

The demands have been accompanied by strong suggestions that if the Pakistanis cannot take care of the problem, including dismantling the Taliban leadership based in Quetta, Pakistan, then the Americans will by resorting to broader and more frequent drone strikes in Pakistan.

But the Pakistanis have greeted the refrain with official public silence and private anger, illustrating the widening gulf between the allies over the Afghan war.

I'm not sure why any of this should be a surprise - long after we decide to leave Afghanistan, Pakistan will of course still be waging a cold war with India, will still see Afghanistan as an element of its strategic depth and will likely continue to view the Afghan Taliban as a strategic asset. Short of staying in Afghanistan forever there doesn't seem to be a lot we can do to change the Pakistanis minds on this (and even then I'm not so sure).

In the context of our current counter-insurgency strategy this is a rather damning strategic reality. Perhaps the US military believes they can control enough of the population in Afghanistan or improve governance so dramatically that the safe havens in Pakistan will become irrelevant. I'm not sure what the historical analogy would be for this belief. Indeed I'm hard pressed to think of a single example of a successful counterinsurgency fight where the insurgents sanctuary/safe haven went unmolested. And even in places like Algeria, where the FLN's safe haven was neutralized the French still lost the fight.

The notion that we can win a counter-insurgency fight in Afghanistan without taking the Taliban's Pakistan safe havens out of commission seems dubious at best. Working off a compressed time frame - and in concert with an incompetent and corrupt host government - it seems near impossible.

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History has taught all of these nations not to mess with Afghanistan. And these folks ignore it.In fact, but for Pakistan - US would have won the war against AQ. Remember the Northern Alliance (NA) was fighting Taliban in 2001 and US & NATO was just providing them with air support in the initial days. And NA was funded by Iran, India, Russia & China to curtail Taliban while Pakistan opposed NA.If it wasn't tragic, it would be funny to see how US trips itself every time with their Pakistan strategy

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