The Pakistan Dance Posted by Patrick Barry

Earlier, General Petraeus expressed his view that in spite of Pakistan's domestic political turmoil, he saw no prospect for a military coup.  Here's Spencer's coverage:

“I don’t think that the current challenges imperil civilian rule,” Petraeus said. He praised the efforts of Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who has performed shuttle diplomacy with senior Pakistani generals for years. It appears, Petraeus said, that the U.S. desire for continued democratic rule in Pakistan has Pakistani uniformed partners: “I don’t see the prospect or desire for anyone to change civilian rule.”

Hillary Clinton made a similar point in an interview last week, saying:

"I think that in my talking with the military, I didn't have any indication that they have any intention of doing anything other than supporting the democratically elected government," she said. "Now I know that there are all kinds of challenges to the current government. That is for the people of Pakistan and for your political process to work out. But of course, we want to see a strong, vibrant democracy, and that is what we are going to continue to support."

While I think it's very important to avoid sounding alarmist or patronizing when speaking with the Pakistanis about their domestic politics, statements like these underscore the bind we're in when it comes communicating expectations.  For while it's probably true that the military doesn't want a coup, and has no plans to revolt, there is evidence that at least some elements have been working to undermine the civilian leadership in ways the U.S. would probably deem inappropriate, the kerfuffle over the the civilian aid package being the clearest example.  So saying that we have no expectation that there will be a coup, doesn't really get at what is an actual concern: the military's intrusion on civilian turf.

Comments

[valentines day presents]

Nice post I must say. I think that we have no expectation that there will be a coup, doesn't really get at what is an actual concern: the military's intrusion on civilian turf.

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