About That Timetable - Part 2 Posted by Michael Cohen

The other day I was on the radio debating Max Boot - and he was arguing that the key to success in Afghanistan was a counter-insurgency approach that protected the population and I was arguing that any new troops in Afghanistan should be used to more aggressively target the enemy. I was the hawk; he was the dove (ish)

And then the host's head exploded.

Ok, jokes aside, Bernard Finel picks up that point in a smart post about the paradox of trying to do pop centric COIN on an 18-month timeline:

18-24 months is probably sufficient to beat the insurgents about the head and neck sufficiently to make them willing to sit down and engage in a process leading to a negotiated cessation of hostilities.

. . . Operationally, this approach would require an unabashedly enemy-centric military campaign, with the goal of systematically dislodging Taliban forces from strongholds and pursuing insurgent fighters vigorously.  The goal isn’t to build institution or win the hearts and minds of the people.  The goal is to alter the cost-benefit calculation of insurgent leaders to make them willing to enter into a serious negotiation process.  This approach also has the advantages of (a) not holding American hostages to the ability of the Karzai government to get its act together and (b) takes better advantage of our military dominance of the battlefield.

I'm not exactly sure how this approach would work on the ground. It would certainly be tricky if you can't also get access to Afghan Taliban safe havens in Pakistan - and like Finel I tend to think that it's politically difficult - but the underlying point is spot on. If we want to get the Taliban into a serious political negotiation, its going to be the stick and not the carrot that will likely do the trick.

Now I'm still not clear on which approach McChrystal will use although if his review is any indication it would likely be the carrot. But it's really hard to believe that a population centric approach - which by its very nature is slow going - is going to turn things around in 18-24 months. I feel like a bit of a broken record on this point, but if you a) accept the notion that you are not going to eliminate the Taliban b) understand that the Taliban will likely play some role in Afghanistan's political future c) want to make political reconciliation with the Taliban a key part of your strategy then d) you're going to need to regain the military initiative in order to change facts on the ground and lay the groundwork for a negotiation process.

Finally there is e) that's more or less what happened in Iraq. It wasn't the carrot that ended the insurgency. It was the stick.

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