Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch - The Wrong Tactics Approach Posted by Michael Cohen

I really try to be optimistic about our chances in Afghanistan - I try to look on the positive; I really do. But, it's stories like the one today in the Wall Street Journal that just further erode my dwindling confidence.

Commanders in Afghanistan say they will devote the majority of the fresh troops expected from the White House to securing the country's troubled south and will especially target this volatile city, the Taliban's main power base.

. . . Military commanders on the battlefield are ready to implement a plan that makes a defensive ring around Kandahar a linchpin of the fight to come. No matter how many troops the president decides to authorize, the Kandahar campaign will be an early, large-scale test of U.S. Gen. Stanley McChrystal's plan of refocusing allied military, political and economic efforts on population centers and away from sparsely peopled rural areas.

Commanders say the Kandahar campaign will force them to pull troops away from less-urgent fights. "There's no slack out there," said U.S. Brig. Gen. Frederick "Ben" Hodges, director of operations in the south. "Additional forces -- I need them big time. I can't dominate all of the places I want to dominate."

Beside being remarkably similar to the approach utilized by the Soviets during their occupation of Afghanistan the problem here is that you are unlikely to dominate Helmand no matter what you do!  Not only will the Taliban continue to own the countryside (they are after all a rural insurgency); and be able to slip over the border into safe havens in Pakistan, but the increased US presence is almost certainly going to play into the hands of the Taliban - and the image of the US as a foreign occupier. It shouldn't seem accidental that the Taliban are  most popular in the Pasthun-dominated South and East - and that the government's reach is the most minimal there. So wouldn't adding more US troops do as much harm as good?

This is particularly important when you factor in the Taliban's growing inroads in the North and West. Wouldn't it make more sense to focus US troops strength there, where the Taliban are more feared and disliked as opposed to places like Helmand where an increased US military footprint again will play into the hands of the Taliban - and is unlikely to be militarily decisive?

And here's the worst thing, even with 30,000 more troops you're not going to be able to secure Helmand AND pushback Taliban gains in the North and West.  Where is the prioritization? Once again you have a military command that seems intent on spreading itself too thin instead of focusing its energies in those places where it currently enjoys an advantage. And it would be one thing if you were going to send additional troops to the South in order to engage the Taliban more directly. But in fact, we're doing the exact opposite - and focusing on population rather than enemy centric COIN.

One of my biggest fears with the new White House strategy on Afghanistan was that by giving McChrystal more troops it would discourage him from thinking more strategically about how those troops were utilized. From early indications, these fears are being realized: and more troops may lead to the continuation of dubious military decision-making.

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Um, Kandahar is not Helmand.

Not sure why you want to cede all of southern and eastern Afghanistan to the Taliban. This did not work very well when the Pakistanis did it in FATA.

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This is by way of question, not debate. The argument against troop increases in Iraq (I refuse to accept the term "The Surge," as it sounds like a rock band) was something similar to this. Now, I'm willing to accept the conclusions that (1) the increase in troops in Iraq had nothing to do with security gains there (though I think that formulation may be too strong); and (2)Afghanistan is "different." But you've got to explain to me why.

There's simply too much conclusion in the public debate on Afghanistan and not enough explanation, and it's giving me a headache.

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