Nuclear Posture Review: Say it Ain't So DoD Posted by David Shorr

A very important warning from Ron Rosenbaum at Slate that inertia and resistance from the Pentagon's nuclear weapons establishment threaten to undermine President Obama's stated goals for nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation. The piece makes a number of excellent points, but most important is how Rosenbaum highlights the link between the United States' doctrinal reasons for having (and potentially using) nuclear weapons and the associated policies to preserve nuclear forces. The key grafs, worth quoting at length, point out that early hints related to the impending Nuclear Posture Review could be devastating for nuclear disarmament:

The first disquieting signal on this front came earlier this month, when the Pentagon released a series of talking points about the upcoming NPR. Although the release began with lip service to [the goal of] Zero, it quickly moved on to a long list of desiderata for maintaining, updating, modernizing, and improving our nuclear-weapons-deterrence system. "In his April 5, 2009 speech in Prague," the Aug. 6 NPR talking points begin, "President Obama made clear his intent to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy and to take concrete steps toward a world without nuclear weapons. He also promised that as long as nuclear weapons exist, the United States will maintain a safe, secure, and effective arsenal to deter any adversary, and guarantee that defense to our allies."

"He also promised ..." That's what the NPR talking points are all about: The "also" reality we actually live in where Zero is just a dream.

Note the wording "as long as nuclear weapons exist": The Pentagon is committed to business as usual. There are also little code words in there for those in the know. Consider effective, which, in this context, can be interpreted to mean that the aging and supposedly deteriorating nuclear warhead stockpile needs more than the current "Life Extension Program" (an ironic name), which works to refurbish fissile warheads from the Cold War to ensure the credibility of their deterrent value. Most of the nuclear establishment has been straining at the bit to junk the LEP and replace it with the RRW—the "Reliable Replacement Warhead" program—which would involve developing an entire new generation of nuclear warheads and probably require underground testing (rather than the computer simulations disparaged as insufficient), and thus continued U.S. refusal to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban treaty. Obama has made signing that treaty one of his goals, but the nuclear-weapons-making establishment doesn't want to be hamstrung by it. Just another way the nuclear bureaucracy is derailing the commander in chief's goals.

There is absolutely no necessary logical connection between "as long as nuclear weapons exist" and the development of new nuclear warheads. The only real implied commitment in that sentence is to retain a nuclear arsenal to deter others from launching a nuclear attack -- i.e. forces sufficient to meet any such attack with a devastating retaliatory strike (God forbid). Rosenbaum also helpfully links to an sensible, readable, and implementable proposal from the good people at Natural Resources Defense Council and Federation of American Scientists. I just hope Rosenbaum is wrong about where the posture review is headed.

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