Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch - The Hopeless, Not Hard Version Posted by Michael Cohen

Over at abumuqawama, Andrew Exum approvingly cites Robert Kagan's op-ed in the Washington Post on the issue of wars of necessity vs. wars of choice.  As is often the case with a Kagan op-ed it reduces a complicated question about fighting wars to a black and white issue - all wars, unless the United States is being invaded or in imminent danger, are ones of choice says Kagan:

It would have been bad if the United States had not defended South Korea in 1950 . . . but it would not have been the end of the world, either. The United States and the West suffered far more from the Soviet Union's stationing of the Red Army across Eastern Europe after World War II, but no one, including Haass, claims it was necessary to go to war with Stalin in 1945.

The fact is, unless the nation is invaded or its very survival is imminently threatened, going to war is always a choice. So what is the point of trying to make this elusive distinction anyway?

For many, including Obama, the present purpose is to distinguish Afghanistan from Iraq, Obama's "good" war from George W. Bush's "bad" war. But it won't work. As Haass correctly argues, right or wrong, they were both wars of choice.

This is wrong on a number of counts. First, it must be noted that even if you buy Kagan's formulation, there can still be good wars of choice and bad wars of choice. So Korea was likely a good choice (well until MacArthur brought the Chinese Army across the Yalu), same goes for the Gulf War. Iraq, a bad choice - same for Vietnam.

But Kagan has this whole thing backwards. The war in Afghanistan began as a war of necessity and to some extent continues to be one, because policymakers have convinced themselves that it is a war they must fight to prevent a return of an al Qaeda safe haven to Afghanistan (which would of course pose an existential threat to the United States). If you believe, for example, as Peter Bergen does that "if the Taliban did come back to power in Afghanistan, of course they would give safe haven to al Qaeda" (a rather amazing statement I might add) then of course the war in Afghanistan is a necessity.

The problem here is that we have policymakers who are operating under the dubious assumption that the current war in Afghanistan - and the current mission - is a war of necessity.  Indeed, has any president who sent troops into harm's way not believed that it was absolutely necessary to do so? So yes, let's stop arguing about wars of necessity and wars of choice - and instead let's question the assumptions that lead us to believe any war not in the country's self-defense must be fought.

Even more striking than Kagan's argument, however, is the response of Andrew Exum. He recounts a story of being quizzed by public servants as to "What are we doing in Afghanistan and why are we there in the first place?" his reaction is "this is now Obama's war, and he and Stan McChrystal need to explain to the American people in non-IR-speak why we are in Afghanistan and what we are doing there."

Yes, I suppose that is one solution. But one would imagine that if so many people were asking me "What are we doing in Afghanistan and why are we there in the first place?" it might cause me to step back and say NOT how can I sell this war better, but if after 8 years, people are still asking me this question then maybe the whole enterprise doesn't make a lot sense.

What is striking to me about the "hard not hopeless" crowd is that they no matter how "hopeless" things seem in Afghanistan, it's still not "too hard" that we shouldn't muddle through. For every indication that we don't have enough troops on the ground, that we don't have the support of the Afghan government and security forces, that the American people are increasingly unconvinced that we should be fighting this war . . there is always another call to do more, to give it another 12 months, to improve the PR job, to send more troops etc. There is always something more that can be done, except that is, actually changing course.

When does hopeless actually become . . hopeless.

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

If you believe, for example, as Peter Bergen does that "if the Taliban did come back to power in Afghanistan, of course they would give safe haven to al Qaeda" (a rather amazing statement I might add) then of course the war in Afghanistan is a necessity.

I doubt that even this much is true. People like Bergen seem to be mesmerized by the term "safe haven", and overestimate the degree to which attacks such as the 9/11 attack depend on the existence of large al Qaeda bases or safe havens, and on "state sponsors".

Exactly how much of a “safe haven” do terrorists need? A safe haven could be an apartment building in New Jersey, a social club in London, a home in North Africa or a dorm room in Spain. What resources are required? Some cell phones? An internet connection? Access to some bank accounts?

The 9/11 hijackers trained to fly in the US. An they didn't need a safe haven in Afghanistan to learn how to incapacitate airline personnel with box cutters. If the base in Afghanistan played any role at all in the attack, it is a role that could easily have been played by any number of other locations.

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