Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch - The Definition Of . . . Posted by Michael Cohen

I apologize to my loyal readers for not earlier referencing this gobsmacking piece from the NYT today:

Fifty Afghans believed to be drug traffickers with ties to the Taliban have been placed on a Pentagon target list to be captured or killed, reflecting a major shift in American counternarcotics strategy in Afghanistan, according to a Congressional study to be released this week.

United States military commanders have told Congress that they are convinced that the policy is legal under the military’s rules of engagement and international law. They also said the move is an essential part of their new plan to disrupt the flow of drug money that is helping finance the Taliban insurgency.

Ok, just so I have this straight: we're going to start killing drug traffickers in Afghanistan because drug money from opium sales goes to the Taliban. (Oh and by the way don't worry this is totally legal because the military said it is).

The reason we are killing drug traffickers is because if the Taliban pockets that money they can buy more $10 a day soldiers; and if they have more soldiers they can one day take over Kandahar, which by the way is the next new battle in Afghanistan (never mind that pesky little offensive in Helmand Province that was underresourced and had no host country support. Nothing to see here, move along, move along, just a sideshow).

And if we don't target these drug traffickers the Taliban will drive from Kandahar to Kabul where they will take over the country again. Then they will create a safe haven for Al Qaeda, who will set up precisely the same terrorist infrastructure that they had pre-2001 and there's not a single thing that the US will be able to do about it.

And then America will get hit by a terrorist attack again.

You want to know how messed up this idea is: even Andrew Exum agrees with me!

Are we really going to spend our time, money and precious ISR assets going after the Pashtun Pablo Escobar? Again, why are we in Afghanistan? To fight drugs?

Here's the thing: if we're out there killing drug dealers in Afghanistan that's the practical definition of mission creep. What's next, are we going to start trying to convince farmers to grow something other than opium . . . oh jeez.

I mean part of me is really starting to wonder if all of this - from the targeting of drug traffickers and the prison reform to the calls for 45,000 more troops -- is just a bizarre plot by the military to undermine support for the mission in Afghanistan. Cause it seems to be working.

Comments

[Speechboy's doppelganger]

He's just concerned that drones might be used.

[TMunice]

..."And if we don't target these drug traffickers the Taliban will drive from Kandahar to Kabul where they will take over the country again. Then they will create a safe haven for Al Qaeda, who will set up precisely the same terrorist infrastructure that they had pre-2001 and there's not a single thing that the US will be able to do about it." Why is this not possible - even likely? What am I missing (sincerely asked)? Maybe targeting drug dealers is a stupid tactic - but is preventing the Taliban from retaking Afghanistan really not in our interests? I ask this sincerely.

[J.]

You and Exum are both wrong. Exum has no excuse to not see this straight, but I will suggest that you go immediately to the library and check out Gretchen Peter's "Seeds of Terror." If you have ANY doubt of the nexus between the Taliban and narco-gangs, it will be removed after you read this book.

I think you're overplaying the "military going to kill drug lords" aspect by just a bit. The problem has been that the military provides security, and for the DEA and Afghan police to work the counternarcotics angle (and yes, there is one), they need to team with and deploy with military personnel. The US military has ignored this threat for eight years, and as a result, the Taliban has rebuilt its personnel and firepower to the point that the US military can't ignore it anymore.

No question that there is a lack of strategic thought in figuring out what to do in Afghanistan. But as long as the currrent operational goal is to stabilize the region to the point where Kabul can exercise its authorities across the country, the drug lords have to go. And as long as the DEA doesn't own MRAPs and Predators and can't take on Taliban armies of 500-1000 people, the US military has a distinct role.

[Michael Cohen]

J, I am familiar with Gretchen's work and I don't question the nexus between the Taliban and drug traffickers. What I question is whether this is an appropriate mission for the United States military. You are right that the current "operational goal is to stabilize the region to the point where Kabul can exercise its authorities across the country" but that is not the strategic objective laid out by the President and to meet that goal it would involve a much longer commitment and resource allocation than I believe is necessary.

Muncie, this post gets at some of your questions:

http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2009/08/how-big-is-the-threat-from-afghanistan.html

[SNLII]

Gretchen Peters' work has been widely debunked by UNDOC and a real expert on the subject, Brookings' Vanda Felbab-Brown.

UNDOC last year estimated that the Taliban taxed 10 percent of the earnings of the drug trade in areas that they control, perhaps earning a mere $60 million off the trafficking of narcotics.

It is NOT the $300 million figure one sees quoted often by Peters.

I believe in her book, Peters claims that the various Taliban militias earn 70 percent of their take from opium.

That's just ludicrous.

Michael, you can attack the proposed interdiction policy on its own merits without any reference to Peters and remain on comfortable ground.

[Michael Cohen]

Josh Foust had a pretty good takedown of Gretchen's book:

http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/07/09/seeds-of-terror-how-heroin-is-bankrolling-the-taliban-and-al-qaeda-by-gretchen-peters/

And she responded to it here:

http://blog.gretchenpeters.org/?p=264

But again I'm focused less on the specifics here. Even if Gretchen's numbers are correct, I don't see this as an appropriate mission for the US military. It only gets us deeper and deeper into the a nation building exercise and counter-insurgency mission that is not in our national interests.

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