Dipping a Toe Into the COIN Debate Posted by David Shorr

I have just read Michael Cohen's excellent World Politics Review piece on the Powell Doctrine versus counterinsurgency doctrine. Michael gives a very effective rundown of all the qualms that should be weighed when considering the aims (and advisability) of US intervention. That said, one of his key points is for me both important and at the same time the barrier that keeps me from joining the chorus of the COIN-skeptical.

The issue is the disparity between the relatively low stakes for the outside intervener and the steely determination of its local adversaries, and the relevant passage is the following:

Rarely considered in all these conflicts, was the political will, devotion and even fanaticism of potential rivals, as well as their patience for armed conflict... [T]he political will to see such conflicts to the end was in short supply on the U.S. side -- and in great supply among its enemies.

To which I would merely add "...except when it isn't." I'm sure Michael recognizes that these factors will vary from one situation to the next, and for my part, I agree that this balance of stakes and determination should always be weighed. But interveners aren't the only ones who overplay their hand. Insurgencies can be brittle too -- operating as criminal gangs rather than genuine political movements or sowing the seeds of their own destruction with brutality against the local population. I don't think we can deny COIN's insight into these dynamics, nor what US power might have to offer. 

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