Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch - The Bret Michaels Version Posted by Michael Cohen

It's hard to make complete sense of the statements today by Secretary of Defense Gates around the length of US involvement in Afghanistan. On the one hand Gates seems to be suggesting that Gates is cognizant of the possibility of mission creep and diminishing public support for the war:

After eight years, U.S.-led forces must show progress in Afghanistan by next summer to avoid the public perception that the conflict has become unwinnable, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said in a sharp critique of the war effort. "After the Iraq experience, nobody is prepared to have a long slog where it is not apparent we are making headway," Gates said in an interview. "The troops are tired; the American people are pretty tired."

. . .While not predicting a parallel fate for the Obama administration, Gates emphasized the need for progress in Afghanistan during an interview aboard his plane as he returned to Washington after visiting sailors Friday at the Great Lakes Naval Station in Illinois. Gates has spoken about the need for progress in Afghanistan and the public's fatigue of war. But in this interview, he went further by offering a more specific time frame for needed progress as well as the consequences of failing to meet it.

However, as Bret Michaels reminds us, every rose has its thorn (and every cowboy sings a sad, sad song):

Gates said that victory was a "long-term prospect" under any scenario and that the U.S. would not win the war in a year's time. However, U.S. forces must begin to turn the situation around in a year, he said, or face the likely loss of public support.

. . . Gates said that Americans would have the patience to continue the war in Afghanistan only if the new military approach began to move the conflict out of deadlock. "If we can show progress, and we are headed in the right direction, and we are not in a stalemate where we are taking significant casualties, then you can put more time on the Washington clock," he said.

There really are two ways to read what Gates is saying: one, we are not in this for the long haul and, truly, if we don't see progress in a year then the US is going to start winding down the mission. Two, if we can show even the slightest example of success in Afghanistan a year from now, the mission will continue.

My bet is on the latter, in part because the former brings with it a whole host of political headaches for President Obama a few months before a mid-term election. Does he really want to start winding down the US presence and open himself and his party up to the criticism that they are 'cutting and running,' 'abandoning the mission' (insert your own GOP talking point here)? The worst that will happen to Obama if he chooses the former course is outcry from liberal Democrats, which will likely be tempered by a desire to not too heavily rock the boat right before a mid-term election.

There is an historical precedent to consider. Back in 2007, President Bush pitched the surge in Iraq on the idea that it would create political breathing space for Iraqi leaders to move forward with political reconciliation. Of course, that didn't happen so instead the new benchmark for success became civilian casualties and overall security in Iraq, which thankfully began to improve. In other words, the metrics for success became a bit of a moving target.

The lesson here is that since the Obama Administration failed to lay out any benchmarks for measuring success or even "victory" in Afghanistan a year from now military (and political leaders) can come up with all kinds of positive metrics to argue that the mission is enjoying success and thus should continue.

This may also provide an explanation as to why the military is pushing forward with a major counter-insurgency operation in Helmand province that lacks both civilian and host country support. If a year from now Helmand is relatively stabilized the military can see 'look how well the mission is going' even though without that the civilian and host country support the gains are ephemeral at best.

But of course the only people making the latter argument will be liberal Democrats and lonely bloggers like myself.  Guess who's going to win that battle.

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This may also provide an explanation as to why the military is pushing forward with a major counter-insurgency operation in Helmand province that lacks both civilian and host country support. If a year from now Helmand is relatively stabilized the military can see 'look how well the mission is going' even though without that the civilian and host country support the gains are ephemeral at best.
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If a year from now Helmand is relatively stabilized the military can see 'look how well the mission is going' even though without that the civilian and host country support the gains are ephemeral at best.