The Terrorist Co-Op Posted by Patrick Barry

In a sign that Pakistan's recalcitrant attitude toward terrorist groups it defines as assets may be coming to roost, Bill Roggio reports that that according to US military intelligence sources, al-Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba and elements of the Taliban (both the Mehsud and Haqqani networks) are conspiring to assassinate key Pakistani officials:

Al Qaeda has transferred seven operatives from the Iraq theater to target senior Pakistani leaders. The targets of the planned attacks are President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani, General Kiyani, and other senior military officers, cabinet ministers, and provincial leaders.

The seven operatives, who were behind deadly attacks in Iraq, reportedly met in Afghanistan's eastern province of Paktia on May 3 to plan the operations, according to a report in the Daily Times. The al Qaeda operatives are assigned to cooperate with the Pakistani Taliban, led by Baitullah Mehsud...

...A US military intelligence official has confirmed the report in a conversation with The Long War Journal, and said that some of the operatives are members of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The location of the meeting, in Paktia province, also indicates involvement with the Haqqani Network, which controls operations in the eastern Afghan provinces of Paktia, Paktika, and Khost.

Yikes!  This might as well have been the annual conference for the Afghanistan and Pakistan Regional Association of Terrorists (APRAT). I hear the lunch buffet at the Paktia Airport Comfort Inn is not to be missed.

Ok seriously now, if true, this report is a pretty strong illustration of Pakistan's long-time cultivation of ties with terrorist proxies beginning to backfire.  Each of these groups falls somewhere within the taxonomy sketched out by Bruce Riedel (HT Spencer) in that the Pakistani government has either 'fought,' 'ignored,' or 'supported' each of them, and yet as Spencer observes, the groups "see little problem cooperating with one another," in this case, to eliminate Pakistan's civilian and military leadership. 

In this context, its still not clear whether the latest offensive signals that Pakistan's establishment grasps what they're up against.  For folks like a Riedel, the real test will likely be whether the military turns its sights to South Waziristan - closer to the heart of militant territory, where there tends to be more terrorist\insurgent co-mingling. So far, indications that an expanded offensive will take place have been inclusive, with Zardari announcing, then backpedaling.  Reuters attributes this to the Pakistani military's reluctance to prompt a 2nd refugee crisis in the FATA - completely understandable given the displacement brought on by the Swat offensive.  At the same time, by not acting against insurgent\terrorists gathered in the FATA, Pakistan makes their argument that what's happening in Swat represents a definitive break from past behavior more difficult to chew.

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In this context, its still not clear whether the latest offensive signals that Pakistan's establishment grasps what they're up against. For folks like a Riedel, the real test will likely be whether the military turns its sights to South Waziristan - closer to the heart of militant territory, where there tends to be more terrorist\insurgent co-mingling. So far, indications that an expanded offensive will take place have been inclusive, with Zardari announcing, then backpedaling. Reuters attributes this to the Pakistani military's reluctance to prompt a 2nd refugee crisis in the FATA - completely understandable given the displacement brought on by the Swat offensive
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