The Tehran Beat - UPDATED Posted by Michael Cohen

None of us really know what's happening in Iraq right now - or what's going to happen. We're truly in the midst of "interesting times."

Since everything I know about Iran I learned in a great seminar with Nasser Hadian at Columbia University (and that was 7 years ago), I'll do my best to pass along smart analysis of the situation.

At TNR, John Judis makes a great argument as to why the Obama Administration should say less not more about what's happening in Iran:

The Obama administration has to be very careful about backing, or even placing great hopes on, someone like Iran's Moussavi and even on his impassioned followers. If we are seeing the beginning of another revolution--or structural transformation--in Iran, it is worth remembering that before the dust clears on this events, Kerensky can become Lenin and Bani Sadr can become Khomeini. The U.S. should use its influence--and get European countries to use theirs--but we should be careful and not allow ourselves to get into crusading mode where we think we can protect or defend one side against the other.

This take from Noah Milman is worth a read:

America should be playing it pretty cool right now. There are states that could plausibly bring pressure to bear in support of proper democratic procedures and against stealing elections or shooting protestors, but they would have to be states with real credibility both as democracies and as friends of Iran – i.e., places like Germany or India, not us. But it’s not obvious to me why Germans or Indians would want to interfere like that. We, unfortunately, can’t do much more than watch.

Finally, Trita Parsi tells us all to get a grip . . . sort of:

What's often forgotten amid the genuinely awe-inspiring spectacle of hundreds of thousands of long-suppressed people risking their lives on the streets to demand change is the fact that the political contest playing out in the election is, in fact, among rival factions of the same regime. Ahmadinejad represents a conservative element, backed by the Supreme Leader, that believes the established political class has hijacked the revolution and enriched themselves and is fearful that the faction's more pragmatic inclination toward engagement with the West could lead to a normalization of relations that will "pollute" Iran's culture and weaken the regime. Mousavi is not really a reformer so much as a pragmatic, moderate conservative who has campaigned with the backing of the reform movement because it recognizes that he has a better chance of unseating Ahmadinejad than one of their own would have.

Also keep an eye on Andrew Sullivan and Nico Pitney and Spencer Ackerman who are all on top of this in a big way.

UPDATE: Laura Secor has a fascinating post as well over at the New Yorker blog:

This is uncharted territory for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Until now, the regime has survived through a combination of repression and flexibility. The dispersal of power throughout a complex system, among rival political factions, and with the limited but active participation of the voting public, has allowed a basically unpopular regime to control a large population with only limited and targeted violence. There have always been loopholes and pressure points that allow the opposition and the regime to be dance partners, even if one or both of them is secretly brandishing a knife behind the other’s back. That has been less true under Ahmadinejad than in the past. But the culture of the organized opposition under the Islamic Republic has tended to remain cautious and moderate. Many of the protesters of recent days are not calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. They are calling for their votes to be counted. More nights like last night, however, when some seven protesters were allegedly shot, could swiftly change that.

So is there any way Khamenei can dial the situation back even to the unhappy modus vivendi of June 11th? He could have the Guardian Council concede that the official figures were wrong, and assert that the vote was close enough, after all, to send the election to a second round between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad. If this had been the initial announcement from the Interior Ministry on June 12th, it would have been entirely plausible. Ahmadinejad has a reliable base that could comprise as much as thirty per cent of the country, as well as all the advantages of incumbency, including access to state television; his conservative challenger, Mohsen Rezai, had amassed little momentum; and, at least until Mousavi’s late surge, there was a real contest between Mousavi and Karroubi for the hearts of the uncommitted. A split vote and a run-off would hardly have raised an eyebrow in the first instance. But to call one now, after having already endorsed a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad and called out riot police to enforce it, would be an admission that a brute power grab had been attempted and abandoned.

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

Parsi wins.

[true religion jeans]

Cool website, like what I have read. Will definitely be back to read again.

[cheap jordan shoes]

I agree that slowing down imports will probably help the US economy. Especially from countries like Japan who really haven't been playing fair all along.

[nike sb]

Just wanted to say HI. I found your blog a few days ago and have been reading it over the past few days.

[ghghg]

CHEAP rs gold
MY lotro gold
CHEAPEST aion gold

[rolex watches]

I have to agree with the comment.

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[cheap coach bags]

Great comments! You are so nice, man! You never know how much i like'em!

[cheap coach purses]

Yes, that's cool. The device is amazing! Waiting for your next one!

[SesliChat]

I have to agree with the comment
Great comments. You are so nice, man. You never know how much i like'em
Thank You For sesli sohbet seslisohbet Sesli Chat

[iedge]

What unfolds in Tehran in the weeks and months ahead may prove more important to the global financial and economic crisis than the public utterances of officials in Washington.

[sesli sohbet]

This is uncharted territory for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Until now, the regime has survived through a combination of repression and flexibility. The dispersal of power throughout a complex system, among rival political factions, and with the limited but active participation of the voting public, has allowed a basically unpopular regime to control a large population with only limited and targeted violence
seslisohbet
seslichat

[TıkLa-SohbeT]

SesLiSohbeT siteleri arasında ekol bir adres SesTonum hemen sohbette başlamak icin SesTonum 'tıklayınız..! SesLiSohbeT Ve SesLiChaT adreslerinin gözdesi hemen tıklayarak SesLiSohbeT yapmaya başlaya bilirsiniz..!

SesTonum
SesLiChaT
SesLiSohbeT

[FFXIV Gil]

Are you fighting in Final Fantasy XIV for FFXIV Gil or Final Fantasy XIV Gil?
Can you suffer yourself being called newbie in FFXIV Gil game?
Are you seeking unofficial Buy FFXIV Gil cheats or Final Fantasy XIV guides in order to make Final Fantasy XIV Gil faster?
Can you get millions of Cheap FFXIV Gil in one day?
Even if you know how to farm Buy Final Fantasy XIV Gil you have to prepare enough Final Fantasy XIV Power Leveling first to buy height class Final Fantasy XIV Items, to upgrade your Final Fantasy XIV characters.
FF14 Gil Then why not Buy FFXIV Gil from us?
In Final Fantasy XIV it's the fastest way FF14 Gil,for you to get rich. We are online 24 hours a day ready and 7 days one week to power up your FFXIV Gil accounts with FFXIV Gil. Here is the best place for the Final Fantasy XIV Online players to buy your Final Fantasy XIV Gil.
We are the professional website in FFXIV GIL sale.FFXIV GIL here,We are professional FFXIV Power Leveling online. We update price every single day to make sure we are the lowest in the market.(we don't compare price with scam sites which uses unbelievable low price to deceive.)
Our slogan:Cheapest price, Fastest delivery, Best service! Final Fantasy XIV GIL
In the 2 years we are in this field , FFXIV GILbuilt many business with tens of thousands of customers. They are very satisfied with our service.So if you want to get a log of Cheap FFXIV Gil ,no doubt ,come to our website to buy. Our customer service is ready for you on line now!(GM MMO)

[uggsofaufanfan]

welcome to china

[3g modem]

well! i like this interesting post,thank you your sharing!

[charlene]

Convenience for you to buy Cheap NFL Jerseys.

[watchstore]

I'm sorry, but it's not good enough to say "do over." The pundits' second thoughts should carry the cargo of their previous assumptions, heady projections and salient selling points.I'm a businessman, but also about this thing.nike air max .

[tree]

PDF作成
Word PDF変換
Excel PDF変換
画像 PDF変換
PPT PDF変換
テキスト PDF変換
CHM PDF変換
DjVu PDF変換
RTF PDF変換

[syq123]

Money is indeed
Tiffany Bangles important, but Tiffany tassel comb money cannot buy everything. A miser may Tiffany Collection Money Clip think that “money talks,” but if you only give your attention to making money, you may lose many things, such Tiffany Pendants as health, friendship and love. I don't think we should regard money as everything. Money Tiffany Key Rings is just a tool that can help us solve problems or enable us to live a comfortable life. What Tiffany Cuff Link we should do is to use it appropriately and not become misers. This way, all of us can lead a happier lives.

[tiffany and co]

Measure out a good length of wire line or Links of London Letters, if the balls are larger, leather or cotton cord. Should be enough to wrap around your neck than 5 inches. If you are using wire, slide a bead embedded in one end and a part of clasp. Pass the cable through the securing of accounts, adjust, and then flatten the Links of London Sale with crimping pliers. Trim the tail of wire. String accounts. If you want a symmetrical pattern, start with the Links of London Pendants and add segments on each side. Add the second part of the hook or, if you are using a snap hook Should silver jewelry be plated? Silver coating can be done with rhodium, white gold, yellow gold and platinum, even. Another thing you should know when to buy silver Links of London online may no longer be done by hand or machine. Of course, pieces of handmade silver are priced much higher than machine-made counterparts because more value is placed on the works of human hands.

[moncler jackets]

You really want to know that thank you for your post, I look for such article along time, today i find it finally. this post give me lots of advise it is very useful for me .i will pay more attention to you ,i hope you can go on posting more such post, i will support you all the time.

[pandora bracelets]

Thanks for sharing the information there would be some apprehensions from segment but I am up for it.

[ipod touch repair]

great post, thank you

[thomas sabo 2010]

Es ist wirklich eine sehr gute Website, um eine lange Zeit zu finden, sollten Sie bei Sammlungen sehen

[qvod]

很难有发展前途做人体艺术美，看的眼光不同，人也不同
务的受人体艺术是确是很难
做人体艺术这项工作了女so you him
其实有空还不如去看看人体艺术有意思，再不然也可以去浏览下有不错的人体艺术指导，难道看到的古惑仔全集系列要去
short haircutssms jokesshort hairstylessdog groomerswhy

[444]

Csúnya cipő " mbt cipők
, az egészségügyi jelenlegi népszerű kedvenc cipő. Megjelenés, mint a múltban az" alagút cipő "is csúnya, természeténél fogva szilárd," Erő "nyerni, vessen egy pillantást a globális elit, amely lóversenytippeket szerez, mint" zseb Stadion, a svájci egészségügyi túracipő, MBT legjobb technológia most!
mbt cipőkcipő Egészséges erőteljes támogatást a külföldi országokban, mint például Madonna, Kalifornia kormányzója Arnold Schwarzenegger ezek híresség visel, és átvette a vezetést le a tendencia az mbt cipőkFaye Wong és Chao Ma Chao Ma Ying Xu Hao. Tudományos kutatások kimutatták, hogy visel MBT cipő nem fogja elérni az általános játszhat nagyobb szerepet az izmok ereje, fárasztó egy meghatározott időben minden nap lehet javítja a vérkeringést, lelassítja miatt a hosszú munka blokk az okozta hátfájás, így most már azok, akik Nehéz időt találni a testmozgáshoz isszívesen.mbtcipőkelősegítése a testmozgás, ösztönözzék a elhanyagolt izmok, javítja a testtartást és a járás, kiigazítás és alakú testalkat, segítsen javítani a hátsó, fenék, láb, segít az ízületek, az izmok, ínszalagok és inak sérülése hasznosítás, csökkentett A térd-és csont-és ízületi stressz. Egyedülálló egyetlen szerkezet, amely a viselőjének a természetes stabil állapot, hanem az egyensúlyt a mozgás, ami anövekvőizomműködés,megkellszüntetni.Tanulmányok,viselmbt cipőkséta a nyomást a térd csökken 19%-kal. Gyaloglás, stretching lába első közvetlen érintkezik a talajjal, majd kiterjesztette keresztül történő ösztönzése a térd körüli izmok együttes, mbt cipők enyhíti térdproblémák.
Van egy csomó ember visel mbt cipők okoz közvetlenebbül - fogyni! A fárasztó gyaloglás mbtcipőkhatékonyan gyakorolni a kis izmok az ízületek körül, növeli az izom ereje, több zsírt éget, az élvezet a gyaloglás előnyeit tapasztalattal és képzettséggel lehet hatékony kezelésére az elhízás. Eközben, a sarok magassága 5 cm, lehet elérni a megnövekedett rejtett. Most, a beáramló emberek által vezérelt, "csúnya" cipő több lesz a divat, az egészség, fogyás, fokozott, olyan izgalmas ez!

[Kids UGG]

UGG Short Boots is not merely a pair, then the way in which to blend very much more gorgeous snow boots? right here to reveal with you about UGG snow boots with individual views In UGG Ultra snow boots a leisure beautiful feeling of hips and thighs of loose jeans to cone-shaped up in. You can place affordable UGG Tall Boots Boots pulls out a thick edges for narrow Pant very much more hold out the UGG hairy coat near to the lovely, UGG Boots Tall relaxed leisure sweater or t-shirts, and you can mix of relaxed ethnic taste coat to create mash up.

[Thomas Sabo]

I just bought you look good

[visvim shoes]

Visvim shoes uk
You're tired of waiting. You consider yourself a patient woman, don't you? But when it comes to the subject of commitment, you're really finding yourself running out of tolerance. How is it that you and your boyfriend are still just that, girlfriend and boyfriend after all this time?

[thomas sabo uk]

Thank you, creating such a wonderful site, the article is very exciting, not boring, the color is my favorite style.

[pandora jewelry]

Discount pandora charms is pandora usually formed by the Danish expensive jewelry artists Each Enevoldsen for 1979. In a little while this type of business enterprise has been mopping worldwide. He was quoted saying, pandora charms Ive never thought this Pandora has got delicious effect these days. One reason tends to be that we’ve been concerning about the new product pattern in addition to system superior quality, nevertheless the victory got here soundlessly. Via Early in the eightys, the happy pandora australia couple commonly imported out of Thailand pandora jewelry for full price as well as would a very long time inexpensive online business. After encountering several direction pandora.com.au means together with a solid develop sales, the happy couple decide to build their particular expensive jewelry plant around Thailand later. Inside 1989, they put in place a smaller manufacturing plant inside Bangkok and did start to prepare goods which designed by your pet designed for construct inside Thailand. During 2000, this wonderful pandora rings time Pandora bracelets that had been copyrighted plus created by the pup and sold in that Denmark market, which in turn shot to popularity speedily round the whole entire Pound.

[Küptaş]

Es ist wirklich eine sehr gute Website, um eine lange Zeit zu finden, sollten Sie bei Sammlungen sehen

[wholesale replica handbags]

i am glad to study your opinion. m41414 Keepall 55, m41416 Keepall 50, m41522 Speedy 40, m41528 Speedy 25, 219704, m40249 artsy mm, m40259 artsy gm, M45257 Messenger Bag, M40156 Neverfull MM, m40144 Tivoli GM

[nike shoes cheap sale]

And there are tones of other shoes that serve these purposes in one way or the other. Well they make their owner happy in any case. So that's a purpose alright.

[seks shop]

I look for such article along time, today i find it finally. this post give me lots of advise it is very useful for me .i will pay more attention to you ,i hope you can go on posting more such post, i will support you all the time.

[kobe shoes]

or worse it can put much strain in the knee joint.

[Moncler jackets]

Moncler Moncler Outlet
Moncler jackets
Winter coats
Moncler coats
Moncler Jackets For Men
Moncler Jackets For Women is down king, to date, the industry in the down jacket, Moncler is no longer compete with its objects. Repeatedly in the winter, give yourself put on a Moncler, is happy.

[coach outlet online]

Your Uncle Homer sometimes raises a  Tresor Paris pig. And if Wilbur goes there to live, you can walk down the road and v franklin and marshall i UGG Pas Cher sit columbia sportswear  him as often as you like.""How much m Vivienne Westwood oney should I ask for him?" Fern wanted to know.