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June 15, 2009

The Fallout from the Other Election
Posted by Adam Blickstein

While Iran continues to erupt, positive outcomes continue to manifest from the other recent major election in the region: Lebanon. The news coming out of Beirut, though, couldn't be in starker contrast to the tragic situation in Tehran:

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said on Sunday that Hizbullah's right to veto legislation would not be reinstated by the new Lebanese government. The Shiite movement Hizbullah and its Christian allies last year obtained the right to veto thanks to a deal that allocated them 11 of 30 cabinet seats.

The deal was eked out to defuse a power struggle with the rival coalition of Saad Hariri, whose coalition defeated the Shiite group and its allies in a general election on June 7.

This is a pretty big deal. To the extent that Hezbollah will be marginalized politically in Lebanon at a time where turmoil in Iran could further weaken Hezbollah's stature with the possibility of reduced support from Tehran as they try to sort out their political situation strikes me as a potentially game-changing moment for the expansion of reform and democracy in Lebanon. But then again, it could also inspire Hezbollah to renew nefarious actions in Beirut and elsewhere, attempting to inflame the delicate political situation to a degree. Nonetheless, this news is encouraging. 

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But of course, they actually won the popular vote.
http://friday-lunch-club.blogspot.com/2009/06/aah-that-popular-vote.html

As'ad AbuKhalil responds to Eliot Abrams:
http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2009/06/brilliant-insights-on-lebanon-from.html
"Hezbollah’s inability to win support outside its Shiite base."
"Yes, Middle East expert. Hizbullah failed to win support...outside of the single largest sect in Lebanon, and outside of 50.3% of the Christians, and outside of 25% of the Sunnis, and outside of 30% of the Druze."
And again
http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2009/06/pro-westernsalafite-jihadi.html
"Meet the new MP, Khalid Daher. He won on the Hariri list in `Akkar. This Bin Ladenite is now part of the coalition that the Western media insists on labeling as "pro-Western." I am not sure how Daher would react if you were to call him "pro-Western." Pro-medieval would be more appropriate. Mr. Daher allegedly helped recruit volunteers for Abu Mus`ab Zarqawi. By the way, was Zarqawi "pro-Western" too'"

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But then again, it could also inspire Hezbollah to renew nefarious actions in Beirut and elsewhere, attempting to inflame the delicate political situation to a degree. Nonetheless, this news is encouraging.
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