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March 30, 2009

SOI Danger
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Brian Katulis has the breakdown on disturbing reports out of Baghdad with new confrontations between members of the Sons of Iraq and the Iraqi Security Forces.

What happened this weekend in central Baghdad between Iraqi security forces and members of the Sunni Awakening groups was not unexpected, in large part because many of the tactics used in the 2007 “surge” of U.S. forces built a shaky and unstable foundation. Violence broke out in the central Baghdad neighborhood of Fadhil—just a few miles north of the Green Zone—when Iraqi troops backed by U.S. forces arrested Adil Mashadani, an “Awakening” militia leader on charges of terrorist and sectarian crimes. According to news reports, Mashadani allegedly maintained ties with Al Qaeda forces, helped plan roadside bombing attacks against Iraqi security forces, and ran an extortion racket that squeezed Fadhil residents for tens of thousands of dollars.


It might be easy or tempting to try and blame this on the Obama administration or somehow claim that the President should stop his plan to withdraw American forces.  But its very obvious that this is a structural problem that was put in place in 2007.  It was a problem that was pointed out by Brian, Marc Lynch, Colin Kahl and Shawn Brimley, myself, and many others.  Lets hope this is just a blip and not the beginning of something bigger.

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This recent uptick in violence and potentially unraveling of the political stability in Iraq point out the futility of trying find a victory in a COIN war without a political solution. If a political solution is the main and only source for victory in a COIN campaign than what really is the usefullness of conducting COIN campaigns or having an army devoted to that form of warfare when in fact in order to have a "victory," one has rely more on diplomats and not on soldiers.

This recent uptick in violence and potentially unraveling of the political stability in Iraq point out the futility of trying find a victory in a COIN war without a political solution.

This recent uptick in violence and potentially unraveling of the political stability in Iraq point out the futility of trying find a victory in a COIN war without a political solution.

This recent uptick in violence and potentially unraveling of the political stability in Iraq point out the futility of trying find a victory in a COIN war without a political solution

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