Iraq's Provincial Elections: Looking Ahead Posted by Shadi Hamid

I've written a short piece for World Politics Review (a great site by the way) on the Iraqi provincial elections and what they mean for future of Iraq's political development. One aspect I focus on is the process of "alternation of power" - and ask whether the losers of the election will accept the results peacefully:

Iraq's provincial elections took place without major incident, leading observers to let out a sigh of relief. Some hailed the elections for what they were -- in Larry Kaplow's words, "orderly, safe, and enthusiastic" -- others for what they weren't -- a vindication of the Iraq war and the subsequent surge. Most assessments thus far have been premature. After all, it is one thing to vote, it is quite another to accept the results.

The real test for Iraq's fledgling democracy will be not Saturday's voting, but rather how the competing parties come to interpret Saturday's meaning. While these were not the first elections since the American invasion, they were the first in which those in power were called upon to give it up according to the preferences of the electorate. It is worth remembering that, with the exception of Lebanon, there are no Arab polities where voters can replace their leaders through the ballot. With the Dawa Party likely to take over governates previously held by the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), and Sunni Arabs wresting control of Niniveh from the minority Kurdish population, the process of power transfer has begun. It is less clear how it will end, and whether the vanquished will go down without a fight.

Already, in Anbar province, one of Iraq's literal "battleground states," threats of violence abound amid allegations of fraud. Ahmed abu Risha, leader of one of the famed "awakening councils," has said that if the Iraqi Islamic Party, which currently governs the province, ends up winning, Anbar will look like "Darfur." It is an odd analogy for an Arab politician to use, but one that may very well be apt.

You can read the whole thing here.

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I had heard that the provincial elections will also provide the most detailed insight so far into the relative strength of Iraq’s political parties...

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