What's Russian for My Head Hurts? or Golova Moya Kruzhitsa Posted by Patrick Barry

Though a few reporters and bloggers have cautiously welcomed this NY Times story, about Russia reaching an agreement with General Petraeus to allow NATO the use of Russian transit routes to Afghanistan, there does seem to be one reason to be skeptical - the Russians may not have actually signed off on the agreement!  From an op-ed in the Asia Times:

At any rate, within a day of Petraeus' remark, Moscow corrected him. Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Maslov told Itar-Tass, “No official documents were submitted to Russia's permanent mission in NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] certifying that Russia had authorized the United States and NATO to transport military supplies across the country."

A day later, Russia's ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, added from Brussels, "We know nothing of Russia's alleged agreement of military transit of Americans or NATO at large. There had been suggestions of the sort, but they were not formalized." And, with a touch of irony, Rogozin insisted Russia wanted the military alliance to succeed in Afghanistan.

Adding to the confusion are the articles written about U.S.- Russia relations, which continue to describe the agreement as a done deal, even though just a short google search finds that members of the Russian government began issuing these denials just a few days after the New York Times article appeared on January 20.  So what gives?  Why did General Petraeus say that an agreement was as good as inked when, from the Russians perspective, that clearly wasn't the case? 

Part of what makes these denials perplexing is that the Russians' suggestion, not that there was never any agreement with the U.S. on transit routes, but that the agreements were never "formalized," on account the failure to submit "official documents."  It's entirely possible that a deal was reached, but that the Russians never expected it to go public.  When the Times story broke, it might have had the effect of putting Russian officials in an awkward position.  That would explain why the pushback appears to have hinged on a technicality, and also why the Kremlin statements seem to be in such small circulation (I haven't seen their remarks outside of Asian sources).

Another possibility is that the Russians are trying to create wiggle room, by denying the deal exists on paper, while leaving open the possibility for substantive cooperation down the road.  Leaving out the productive conversations on transit routes, recent Kremlin statements on Afghanistan have generally been quite cagey.  On Friday, President Medvedev made some vague assurances of support, tempering those overtures with the expectation that any partnership should be "full-fledged and equal."  Medevedev's Monday remarks, on future NATO - Russia relations could easily constitute an extension of that strategy - opening the door for cooperation, but staying evasive when it comes to anything concrete. 

A third possibility is that there never was any agreement and someone, somewhere goofed.  Of all the options, I'd say it's the least plausible, but stranger things have happened.

Update: HT to Heather for the addition to the title - Golova moya kruzhitsa is Russian for "My head is spinning."

Comments

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Some analysis of this situation from M.K. Bhadrakumar.

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