Re: The False Hope of Democracy Promotion Posted by Shadi Hamid

Greg Scoblete at RealClearWorld is right to flag a potential contradiction in a post I wrote last week on the need for the new administration to make clear to Arab regimes that we’re serious about democratic reform. I say:

Committing ourselves to real support for democracy and democrats in the Middle East is urgent for other reasons. Obama has a window of opportunity. Like all windows, this one will close… This isn’t to say we’re going to stop working with the Egyptian government (we need their cooperation on key national security issues).

Greg asks “Can you really have it both ways? I think that you're either serious about democracy promotion (i.e. regime change) or you're serious about cooperating with the existing rulers to advance key national security issues. You are not going to have both.”
The two goals in question are not mutually exclusive. After all, during any transition to democracy – which could last, say, 10, 15, or 20 years – you will have to work with the regime that’s currently in power. Also, no one is advocating “regime change,” which has the implication of some kind of forceful foreign imposition. It is true that any transition to democracy, to be considered as such, will have to ultimately result in peaceful rotation of power, but this would happen within the framework of an understanding between regime and opposition about the rules of the game, and would probably include power-sharing guarantees that would ensure that erstwhile autocrats maintain some influence in the new regime. But all of that is far, far down the road.

In the meantime, any process of political reform in Egypt is not going to be done behind the back of the Mubarak regime, or by explicitly and actively undermining it. What I have suggested is simply for America to make clear to incumbent regimes, in both word and deed, that it is serious about human rights and democracy. This means providing various incentives to encourage regimes to open up political space and respect opposition rights. It can also mean using economic and military aid as leverage, by making a certain percentage of aid conditional on progress on political reform.

In any case, alienating the Mubarak regime and threatening them with “regime change” is a nonstarter for us, them, and even the Egyptian opposition itself, which is very careful in how it articulates its political objectives.

Comments

[Common Ground News Blog]

I agree that alienation and "regime change" threats is not an effective approach at all. In order to come to any lasting solution, all those concerned must collaborate with the intent that there is common ground to work on and bring about conflict transformation. Look at the differences and act on the commonalities.

[Don Bacon]

The US has its work cut out for it with promoting anything in Egypt, where US policies are not highly thought of.

According to a 2006 Pew Global Report of Egyptian attitudes:
* 30% have a favorable opinion of the US
* 56% believe the US in Iraq is a danger to world peace
* 76% favor Hamas in Palestine
* 44% favor Iran getting a nuclear weapon

Probably the US government policy of imprisoning, torturing and killing Arabs doesn't get high marks either in the democracy promotion department..

[Shadi Hamid]

30% favorability rating sounds suspiciously high (Don, which poll is this?). If such a group exists, I don't recall meeting any of them. I can't think of anyone I know in Egypt, in the secular or Islamist opposition, that would admit (openly) to having a favorable opinion of the US. I suppose though it depends if the respondent interprets the question as referring to the United States, broadly-speaking, or, specifically, to U.S. policy and America's role in the region. If it's the former, then the 30% number is more understandable.

[Don Bacon]

Shadi,
A lot depends upon how the question is asked, I'm sure.
the report: http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=252

Anyhow, how can government #1 influence a #2 when #1 is held in low (or no) esteem by #2's people? How can #2 be influenced by #1 to stop torturing people when #1 does it too? How can #1 promote free elections when its own are widely recognized to be unfair to its minorities and only half the people vote because of limited choice?

If no Egyptians have a favorable reason of the US, they must have their reasons. I assume that they are well-informed, rather than propagandized.

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