Needing Russia Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

The Washington Post has an editorial cavalierly titled "Who Needs Russia" in this weekend's paper where it argues that we don't really need our relationship with Russia because it hasn't been very useful anyway.

A common theme of commentary since the war began has been that the United States is constrained in its condemnation of -- or sanctions against -- Russia because it needs Russia too much in areas ranging from counterterrorism to checking the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran. But you can't lose what you never had, and it's fair to question how much help Russia has been providing in any of those areas, even before Aug. 7.

Yes.  One problem.  We do need Russia.  Of course their cooperation on counterterrorism or dealing with Iran and North Korea would be great, but the Post misses the point.  That is not why we need them.  We need them because they happen to have a massive amount of nuclear weapons and without their cooperation the non-proliferation regime won't have a chance of surviving.  Not to mention the fact that greater confrontation with Russia will make it even more difficult to secure all of the nuclear material that is still unprotected in Russia.

The Post's description of why we deal with Russia shows a fundamental misunderstanding of nuclear terrorism and the dangers we face.  A nuclear device of some sort is not going to go off in an American city because Mahmoud Ahmedinejad or Kim Jong Il decide to give it to some terrorist.  The likelihood of that is incredibly low because there is very little incentive for these leaders to supply nuclear weapons to terrorists knowing full well that if it is ever traced back to them they would likely face nuclear retaliation.  A nuclear terrorist attack would much more likely be the result of an A.Q. Kahn selling the weapons and knowledge to  the highest bidder.  That is the real danger.  An enterprising Russian scientist who has the means and the motive, in a country that has so much nuclear material and hasn't exactly done the best job securing it, could be much more dangerous than a dictator who has neither the intention or capability to give Al Qaeda a nuclear weapon.   

So, despite the fact that the Russians have behaved quite badly in Georgia, the reality is that we still need the world's second largest nuclear power.

Comments

[Peace]

Russia also has thousands of missiles armed with nuclear warheads and if America follows the Washington Post's foolish advice it would find itself in a nuclear war. Moreover the Russians supply gas to Western Europe and is slowly becoming economically connected with Europe. Finally the Russians could have helped the Americans in dealing with Iran. It just appears to me that whoever wrote the Washington Post editorial has no strategic vision whatsover.

[Don Bacon]

Russia controls the main land route from Europe to Afghanistan, leading Russia’s ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, to say that the West should not bite the hand that feeds 50,000 servicemen in Afghanistan.
http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/25-08-2008/106188-russia_usa-0

Then there's the little problem for NASA: WASHINGTON (AFP) — The chill left on US-Russian relations by Moscow's military incursion into Georgia could spell problems for future US access to the International Space Station, US experts said.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gFs-KdAHqfcOLpWZWcf5hjzXPYow

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Yeah...I have heard somewhere that Russia could make life far more difficult for many of America's friends if it chose to do so, just as it could, if it chose, help combat terrorism and nuclear proliferation. But President Bush's imagined partnership with president-turned-prime-minister Vladimir Putin has been pretty much an empty husk for a long time.Please share more on this topic also.

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