Caucasus Mountain High Posted by Adam Blickstein

An obvious aspect of the Georgia/Russia conflict is just how unfocused we were to either anticipate or react to the level and intensity of the situation.  Jeff Stein over at CQ makes some astute points, noting that prior to the deterioration in the region, we had 127 Pentagon advisors and intelligence contractors in Georgia, not to mention the 1,200 American troops that were participating in a three-week joint exercise with Georgian forces that started only a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, according to a Senior State Department official:

"I wouldn't say we were blind," the official said. "I would say that we mostly were focused elsewhere, unlike during the Cold War, when we'd see a single Soviet armor battalion move. So, yes, the size and scope of the Russian move has come as something of a surprise."

Of course, Stein calls BS that we had no idea Georgia was planning to take initial action:

As easy as it is to believe that the CIA, etc., blew another huge event, I find it impossible to accept that not one of the 127 Pentagon advisors in Georgia, including Special Forces and intelligence contractors, were clueless about Tblisi's intent -- and preparations -- to move into South Ossetia.

As Stein goes on to note, there is a lot here we simply don't know yet, and there are no plans to redeploy the U.S. advisors and intel official stationed in and around Tblisi. But it is clear that we have a lot of administration officials speaking in diametrically opposite fashions and intoning varying levels of knowledge.  While it is true that during the Cold War we would know if the Russian moved a single Kalashnikov from Novgorod to Volgograd and it's obvious our intel apparatus, like the military, is stretched thin with invigorated focus on the Middle East and other strategically important areas in the region, not knowing about the Russian incursion and the breadth of its use of force is simply not a possibility, especially since only three weeks ago, both Russia and Georgia (with the 1,200 American troops) were holding competing war games. Is this a conflict we knew about but let happen? Did we really (unlikely) not anticipate that the Russians would steamroll into Georgia?

If we were in fact blind to the institutional knowledge and historical patterns to think that Russia would not use all the might in its arsenal in order to crush its tiny, pro-western, pro-Democracy neighbor with rival oil interests, than not only were we caught flat footed, but  also intoxicated in a hazy cloud of ignorance. It's pretty obvious the U.S. knew, or at least anticipated an outcome similar to what is currently happening in the Caucuses. The larger question is did we want the conflict, and if we didn't, why didn't we wield all our diplomatic muscle, though substantially atrophied these days, to try and diffuse a situation we should have seen coming.

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

Is this a conflict we knew about but let happen? Did we really (unlikely) not anticipate that the Russians would steamroll into Georgia?

It sounds like one possibility is that the Georgians might have gone ahead with the South Ossetia gambit with full US knowledge and support, perhaps seen by Washington as a test of Medvedev, and that the Russians responded firmly to send an unmistakably clear signal and leave know doubt about their continued Putin-like resolve under the new president.

However, another possibility is that there was not much the US could do to either "let the conflict happen" or prevent it, since the decisions ultimately rest in Georgian and Russian hands, and come after a long period of gradual escalation that might have simply bubbled over due to difficult-to-control local events on the ground.

[Zathras]

More likely a number of Americans resident in Georgia as well as Washington did see this crisis approaching, disagreed about what it meant, and could not appeal to any higher authority able to decide what to do about it.

Intelligence failures are intelligence failures. Like or dislike Georgia's president, sympathize with his grievances or not, it doesn't seem as if our government should have been taken by surprise by how this crisis developed or how it transpired. And it seems that it was. It would be interesting to find out how completely it was surprised, and why.

[David Tomlin]

I wouldn't be surprised if it was Bush's - or Cheney's - idea to begin with. Why leave the next administration just two wars, if you can leave them three? And conventional wisdom is that international trouble is good for McCain.

[Jake]

Conspiracy theory: Bush wants to start a major war an invoke archaic law that would allow him to stay in power because the U.S. is at war.

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