Not a Gaffe: A Fundamental Misunderstanding of Iraq Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

John McCain made a mistake this evening, which as far as I'm concerned disqualifies him from being President.  It is so appalling and so factually wrong that I'm actually sitting here wondering who McCain's advisers are.  This isn't some gaffe where he talks about the Iraq-Pakistan border.  It's a real misunderstanding of what has happened in Iraq over the past year.  It is even more disturbing because according to John McCain, Iraq is the central front in the "war on terror."  If we are going to have an Iraq-centric policy, he should at least understand what he is talking about.  But anyway, what happened.

On Katie Couric tonight McCain says:

Kate Couric: Senator McCain, Senator Obama says, while the increased number of US troops contributed to increased security in Iraq, he also credits the Sunni awakening and the Shiite government going after militias. And says that there might have been improved security even without the surge. What's your response to that?

McCain: I don't know how you respond to something that is as-- such a false depiction of what actually happened. Colonel McFarlane [phonetic] was contacted by one of the major Sunni sheiks. Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening. I mean, that's just a matter of history. Thanks to General Petraeus, our leadership, and the sacrifice of brave young Americans. I mean, to deny that their sacrifice didn't make possible the success of the surge in Iraq, I think, does a great disservice to young men and women who are serving and have sacrificed.

One problem.  The surge wasn't even announced until a few months after the Anbar Awakening.  Via Spencer Ackerman, here is Colonel MacFarland explaining the Anbar Awakening to Pam Hess of UPI, on September 29 2006.  That would be almost four months before the President even announced the surge.  Petraeus wasn't even in Iraq yet.

With respect to the violence between the Sunnis and the al Qaeda -- actually, I would disagree with the assessment that the al Qaeda have the upper hand. That was true earlier this year when some of the sheikhs began to step forward and some of the insurgent groups began to fight against al Qaeda. The insurgent groups, the nationalist groups, were pretty well beaten by al Qaeda.

This is a different phenomena that's going on right now. I think that it's not so much the insurgent groups that are fighting al Qaeda, it's the -- well, it used to be the fence-sitters, the tribal leaders, are stepping forward and cooperating with the Iraqi security forces against al Qaeda, and it's had a very different result. I think al Qaeda has been pushed up against the ropes by this, and now they're finding themselves trapped between the coalition and ISF on the one side, and the people on the other.

And here is the NY Times talking about the Anbar Awakening back in March 2007.

The formation of the group in September shocked many Sunni Arabs. It was the most public stand anyone in Anbar had taken against Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, which was founded by the Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

And here is Colin Kahl in Foreign Affairs

The Awakening began in Anbar Province more than a year before the surge and took off in the summer and fall of 2006 in Ramadi and elsewhere, long before extra U.S. forces started flowing into Iraq in February and March of 2007. Throughout the war, enemy-of-my-enemy logic has driven Sunni decision-making. The Sunnis have seen three "occupiers" as threats: the United States, the Shiites (and their presumed Iranian patrons), and the foreigners and extremists in AQI. Crucial to the Awakening was the reordering of these threats.

This is not controversial history.  It is history that anyone trying out for Commander in Chief must understand when there are 150,000 American troops stationed in Iraq.  It is an absolutely essential element to the story of the past two years. YOU CANNOT GET THIS WRONG.  Moreover, what is most disturbing is that according to McCain's inaccurate version of history, military force came first and solved all of our problems.  If that is the lesson he takes from the Anbar Awakening, I am afraid it is the lesson he will apply to every other crisis he faces including, for example, Iran.

This is just incredibly disturbing. I have no choice but to conclude that John McCain has simply no idea what is actually happened and happening in Iraq. 

Comments

[Jay C]

I have no choice but to conclude that John McCain has simply no idea what is actually happened and happening in Iraq.

Ilan, even if Sen. McCain DOES have some sort of accurate understanding of the timeline/history of the Iraq War, isn't it simply more likely that he doesn't care if his public pronouncements on it are accurate?

Virtually the entirety of Sen. McCain's campaign thus far has consisted primarily of repetitiously trumpeting his own "superior" "strategy" for dealing with Iraq, and mostly, said strategy has been to push a simpleminded "win-vs-lose" narrative, parading himself as the "win" candidate, and Sen. Obama as the "lose" one.

It's Rovian campaign strategy at its finest [sic]: message is all, image is vital; and the voting public is hugely unlikely to much care. Things like truth (still less historical accuracy) are optional extras, at best.

[Neil]

Yes, McCain doesn't care if he is right on the facts or wrong on the facts, as long as he projects as a man who will utilize all of our US military resources (everything he can do) to keep us safe.

When Obama supporters see this they say. OMG not McCain. When the rest of the country sees it, they say, he's tough, I like that. When I see it, I wonder if he's talking out of his ass by mistake or doing in intentionally.

[JAZ]

I thank the authors for this article because it exposes the shocking misrepresentations that Sen Obambi has been making to the national and international press corps.

Sen Obama has asserted abroad and to Couric and Moran that NO ONE could have anticipated that the Sunnis in the Anbar Awakening would turn against Al Queada.

Here are the quotes:

Obama says to Couric: "There is no doubt that the extraordinary work of our U.S. forces has contributed to a lessening of the violence, just as making sure that the Sadr militia stood down or the fact that the Sunni tribes decided to flip and work with us instead of with al-Qaeda - something that we hadn't anticipated
happening."

"SOmething that we hadn't anticipated happening".

Similarly on Nightline,

"Here is what I will say," Obama said, "I think that, I did not anticipate,and I think that this is a fair characterization, the convergence of not only the surge but the Sunni awakening in which a whole host of Sunni tribal leaders decided that they had had enough with Al Qaeda, in the Shii’a community the militias standing
down to some degrees. So what you had is a combination of political factors inside of Iraq that then came right at the same time as terrific work by our troops. Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct."

How did Sen Obama fail to anticipate the "Sunni flip" if it had started before his votes on the surge.

Seems to me Sen Obama failed to investigate the facts on the ground before he opposed the surge. Seems to me Sen Obama didn't even bother to check the facts before he made these bald faced lies to the international press corp. And this is the guy that Americans should entrust the lives of our troops? I "hope" not.

[JAZ]

I thank the authors for this article because it exposes the shocking misrepresentations that Sen Obambi has been making to the national and international press corps.

Sen Obama has asserted abroad and to Couric and Moran that NO ONE could have anticipated that the Sunnis in the Anbar Awakening would turn against Al Queada.

Here are the quotes:

Obama says to Couric: "There is no doubt that the extraordinary work of our U.S. forces has contributed to a lessening of the violence, just as making sure that the Sadr militia stood down or the fact that the Sunni tribes decided to flip and work with us instead of with al-Qaeda - something that we hadn't anticipated
happening."

"SOmething that we hadn't anticipated happening".

Similarly on Nightline,

"Here is what I will say," Obama said, "I think that, I did not anticipate,and I think that this is a fair characterization, the convergence of not only the surge but the Sunni awakening in which a whole host of Sunni tribal leaders decided that they had had enough with Al Qaeda, in the Shii’a community the militias standing
down to some degrees. So what you had is a combination of political factors inside of Iraq that then came right at the same time as terrific work by our troops. Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct."

How did Sen Obama fail to anticipate the "Sunni flip" if it had started before his votes on the surge.

Seems to me Sen Obama failed to investigate the facts on the ground before he opposed the surge. Seems to me Sen Obama didn't even bother to check the facts before he made these bald faced lies to the international press corp. And this is the guy that Americans should entrust the lives of our troops? I "hope" not.

[JAZ]

I thank the authors for this article because it exposes the shocking misrepresentations that Sen Obambi has been making to the national and international press corps.

Sen Obama has asserted abroad and to Couric and Moran that NO ONE could have anticipated that the Sunnis in the Anbar Awakening would turn against Al Queada.

Here are the quotes:

Obama says to Couric: "There is no doubt that the extraordinary work of our U.S. forces has contributed to a lessening of the violence, just as making sure that the Sadr militia stood down or the fact that the Sunni tribes decided to flip and work with us instead of with al-Qaeda - something that we hadn't anticipated
happening."

"SOmething that we hadn't anticipated happening".

Similarly on Nightline,

"Here is what I will say," Obama said, "I think that, I did not anticipate,and I think that this is a fair characterization, the convergence of not only the surge but the Sunni awakening in which a whole host of Sunni tribal leaders decided that they had had enough with Al Qaeda, in the Shii’a community the militias standing
down to some degrees. So what you had is a combination of political factors inside of Iraq that then came right at the same time as terrific work by our troops. Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct."

How did Sen Obama fail to anticipate the "Sunni flip" if it had started before his votes on the surge.

Seems to me Sen Obama failed to investigate the facts on the ground before he opposed the surge. Seems to me Sen Obama didn't even bother to check the facts before he made these bald faced lies to the international press corp. And this is the guy that Americans should entrust the lives of our troops? I "hope" not.

[JAZ]

I thank the authors for this article because it exposes the shocking misrepresentations that Sen Obambi has been making to the national and international press corps.

Sen Obama has asserted abroad and to Couric and Moran that NO ONE could have anticipated that the Sunnis in the Anbar Awakening would turn against Al Queada.

Here are the quotes:

Obama says to Couric: "There is no doubt that the extraordinary work of our U.S. forces has contributed to a lessening of the violence, just as making sure that the Sadr militia stood down or the fact that the Sunni tribes decided to flip and work with us instead of with al-Qaeda - something that we hadn't anticipated
happening."

"SOmething that we hadn't anticipated happening".

Similarly on Nightline,

"Here is what I will say," Obama said, "I think that, I did not anticipate,and I think that this is a fair characterization, the convergence of not only the surge but the Sunni awakening in which a whole host of Sunni tribal leaders decided that they had had enough with Al Qaeda, in the Shii’a community the militias standing
down to some degrees. So what you had is a combination of political factors inside of Iraq that then came right at the same time as terrific work by our troops. Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct."

How did Sen Obama fail to anticipate the "Sunni flip" if it had started before his votes on the surge.

Seems to me Sen Obama failed to investigate the facts on the ground before he opposed the surge. Seems to me Sen Obama didn't even bother to check the facts before he made these bald faced lies to the international press corp. And this is the guy that Americans should entrust the lives of our troops? I "hope" not.

[steve]

McCain's a little confused...again...

[Elrod]

JAZ,
Obama is not claiming that he didn't anticipate the Sunni flip. He's saying that he did not anticipate the Sunni flip AND the Shi'ite militia ceasefire (in August 2007) as being enough - in conjunction with the surge and Petraeus' appointment - to lower the violence. Oh, and the ethnic cleansing of Baghdad in the spring of 2007 helped too. Obama DID predict that would happen. Petraeus's walls helped pacify Baghdad because Sadr stood down and because the walls kept the gangsters out. Then Petraeus applied the Anbar model to the now-homogeneous Baghdad neighborhoods, which helped local neighborhood patrols keep out Al Qaeda.

The surge helped, but it was more supplementary than anything else. McCain is lying about the chronology of events. Obama is telling the truth about what he thought would happen.

Nice try though.

[Sean]

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MGM2YWI4ODI0MDA1ZjczOTFjNDNkMGQzMzM0MGQ4Mjg=

Fred Kagan national review: A few sunnis were taking part in the sunni awakening before the surge and grew to 14,000 after the surge.

Anbar and the Surge
The tribal leaders in Anbar began to turn against al Qaeda in Iraq last year, largely due to unspeakable atrocities committed by the terrorists against their own hosts. Many analysts and observers have seized upon this fact to argue that the movement in Anbar had nothing to do with the surge, began before the surge did, and would continue even without the surge. This argument is invalid. Anbari tribal leaders did begin to turn against AQI in their areas last year before the surge began, but not before Colonel Sean MacFarland began to apply in Ramadi the tactics and techniques that are the basis of the current strategy in Baghdad. His soldiers and Marines fought tenaciously to establish a foothold in Anbar’s capital, which was then a terrorist stronghold, and thereby demonstrated to the local leaders that they could count on American support as they began to fight their erstwhile allies. Even so, the movement proceeded slowly and fitfully for most of 2006 and, indeed, into 2007. But when Colonel John Charlton’s brigade relieved MacFarland’s in Ramadi and was joined by two additional Marine battalions (part of the surge) elsewhere in Anbar, the “awakening” began to accelerate very rapidly. At the start of 2007 there were only a handful of Anbaris in the local security forces. By the summer there were over 14,000. Before the surge, Ramadi was one of the most dangerous cities in Iraq; now it is possible for Americans to walk through its market with limited security details and without body armor. David Kilcullen describes the relationship between the surge and the movement very well in his Small Wars Journal posting, and I have also addressed the issue in detail in a recent Weekly Standard article . The fact is that neither the surge nor the turn of the tribal leaders would in itself have been enough to turn Anbar around — both were necessary, and will remain so for some time.

[Sean]

Obama said in January 2007 on MSNBC that the surge would have the opposite effect of reducing violence and in fact adding more troops would create more sectarian violence.

The nutroots are silent on that quote.

[Armando]

Ilan,

You are the one that is mistaken.
Here are some important points:

1. The fact is that in December 2006 the argument was between a change of strategy and "surge" of forces, and a defunding of the war and precipitous withdrawal of forces.

2. Until then, the US military did not have enough forces to stop the deterioration in the situation, the Sunnis and the Shiites continued to perpetuate sectarian violence and the early stages of civil war, and communities cooperated with extremists on both sides because those extremists filled the power vacuum and protected their sectarian community.

3. As a result, the Sunnis allied with AQI because through the terrorist group they were able to organize, coordinate, and protect their community from Shiite militias. They had to do this because they sensed that the US was close to beginning a withdrawal and thus was not a long term partner or protector.

4. Although some Sunni tribes began to rebel against AQI before the "surge" it was a piecemeal, uncoordinated, and largely unsuccesful effort which led AQI to assassinate many of these Sunni tribal leaders. The vast majority of Sunni tribes did not turn on AQI because they did not have the capability to defend themselves from AQI and their leaders feared being assassinated by AQI. Also, the security vacuum created by insufficient US forces meant that the tribes had no other choice but to turn to AQI for protection from Shiite militias.

5. The "surge" sent a clear message to Sunni tribes that the US was committed to improving conditions on the ground and was a credible long-term partner against AQI. Thus the Sunni tribes then began to trust the US as a partner and protector against AQI and Shiite militias. This is the important action that catalyzed Sunnis to turn against AQI and join the US on a wide scale.

6. The "surge" enabled the US military to actually defeat AQI by clearing and holding areas and uniting and organizing Sunni tribes to govern their areas. Without the surge the Sunni tribes would not have been organized in a united and coordinated way to defeat AQI, and security gains would not have been sustainable.

In short, before the "surge" very few tribes turned against AQI and allied with the US. The "surge" demonstrated a renewed American commitment to Iraq that gave the Sunni tribes the confidence to turn against AQI and ally with the US on a large scale. The "surge" then enabled the US to definitively defeat AQI and organize the Sunni tribes to govern and protect themselves.

Had the US performed a precipitous withdrawal as the Democrats and Obama insisted at the time, the Awakening Movement would have failed, its leaders would have been assassinated either by AQI or Shiite militias, and AQI today would be a powerful force in Western Iraq. There is just no doubt that the success of the Awakening Movement is due in large part to the "surge" in forces and counterinsurgency tactics.

[MsSwin]

Gaffes Happen has become the official teeshirt of the McCain campaign and they may come to regret 'whining' for more news coverage.

Politicians put their foot in their mouth on a regular basis. Sometimes it may be the result of long hours on the campaign trail, sometimes because they simply can't keep their facts straight and sometimes because they can't keep their lies straight. Sometimes it's simply because they do not understand the facts.

Per President Bush and Col. MacFarland, the Anbar awakening was already well under way through organized efforts by the tribal leaders well before the surge began. These events took place months before the surge was even announced. Per McCain, the surge 'began' the Anbar awakening.

http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=3738

The Couric interview gets even more interesting as McCain tries to distance himself from the numerous failed Iraq policies under the Bush administration:

“McCain: The fact is we had four years of failed policy. We were losing. We were losing the war in Iraq. The consequences of failure and defeat of the United States of America in the first major conflict since 9/11 would have had devastating impacts throughout the region and the world.”

Why would McCain support a president responsible for four years of failure?

“no one has supported President Bush on Iraq more than I have.” [John McCain, 03/28/08)

“The fact is that I have agreed with President Bush far more than I have disagreed. And on the transcendent issues, the most important issues of our day, I’ve been totally in agreement and support of President Bush.” [John McCain, 06/19/05]

“I am proud of this president’s strategy in Iraq.” [John McCain, upon receiving endorsement from President Bush, 02/13/08]

Gaffes and old quotes are a living history of our thought processes, how well we think, what we think and when we think it. Even Carly can't change that fact:

“To say that John McCain was aligned with President Bush on the prosecution of the war in Iraq is to change history.” [Carly Fiorina, McCain Campaign Advisor, 07/13/08]

The McCain campaign should be thankful the media has let them slide on many major issues, such as his voting record on veteran health issues and successful effort to shut down all investigation into remaining POW/MIA over the protests of their families and veteran groups in order to open up trade with Vietnam (his father-in-law immediately opened up a multi-billion dollar beer industry there).

http://www.aiipowmia.com/sea/schanberg_mccain.html

McCain has been given no media coverage on the very real probability he suffers from PTSD.

“Among U.S. servicemen taken captive during the Korean War, as many as nine out of 10 survivors may suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other mental disorders more than 35 years after their release, psychologist Patricia B. Sutker of the New Orleans Veterans Administration Medical Center and her colleagues report in the January AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY.”

Perhaps McCain should quit whining about media coverage and not look a gift horse in the mouth.

[Peace]

The success of the surge is nothing more than a temporary window of opportunity to try and form an united Iraqi government. In that aspect it has failed due to the fact that the Maliki government has not yet included a large number of Sunnis into the police and armed forces. The likely outcome of this policy is that Maliki is probably going to go after the Awakening Councils and Sunni militias much like he used the Iraqi army against the the Sadrists. The American army will soon find itself trapped in an Iraqi civil war if they do not withdraw within sixteen months.

[JAZ]

Hey ELrod Nice try buddy. The question is did Sen Obambi know about the Anbar Awakening at the time it started? His answer twice has been that NO One could have anticipated it.

Nice try trying to add in the militia stuff. But as Obambi says (this week at least) anyone could have told you that increased troop strength would quell the violence, ie get the militias to back down. Unfortunatelym, for Obambi in 2006, he ignored those fact and would not credit them because they would have gotten in the way of his political aspirations.

[Carol]

You're kidding right? If Mc made a mistake that disqualifies him, what do you call everything Obama made mistakes on, from Chicago till now. Those are just boneheaded mistakes, history gaffes re: war and detente, speaking on something before he even goes to the ME, FISA, financing, the people that aren't 'who he used to know', receiving how much from those due for trial till this day (including the two Ahmed brothers convicted in Canada out of Minn. recently on terror charges), using a 'fact finding mission' to campaign (who's paying for that btw), not to mention his scrubbing of our first amendment rights on the web, deleting of youtube accounts (google is a big supporter), his lobbyists (which for some reason never get mentioned, as if 300 mil came from the oppressed little people), the state of Chicago (with Blago, due for impeachment for scandal, calling for the National Guard due to crime, 10% tax, screwed up schools and of course many condemned and abandoned buildings thanks to his friend, favors for those wanted by Interpol re: Oil for Food, one who walks around his district this minute). Oh, I suggest you go look at open secrets to see where the money comes from. Nukes, defense, lawyers, education (see Chicago), big pharm and oh yes, oil. Yeah, check that ethics bill there and see when it passed.

You guys seem to forget... you don't like a guy who evades, lies, blames others, stubborn/not changing his mind (he revises and nuances, will not admit he's wrong, is a warmonger; Go ahead, put another Bush in, it will be fun when the press and then our net rights are snatched away because he can't take criticism (the press knows it too). Like someone else, he will never be held accountable.
This guy will make Bush look like JFK after he's in.

I also suggest that folks who love to act as if our military's been drafted, to read his Global Poverty Act closely. That National Security Civilian Force he talked about? That he wants just as many, as well trained, just like our military? (This isn't the Americorps or Peace Corps plan, this is a different monster) He wants it mandatory... go dig (After that dig for the history of this). That fluffy you'll get money to go to school, 50 hours a year, etc.... BS, go read about the Canadian and UN programs (via Global Poverty Act), for conscription, he's diverting you with the others, trust me? You guys raise hell on Iraq, say nothing on Afghanistan, or his Pakistan threat from before (that wasn't a mistake either).

What you guys don't understand is, it makes no difference... this is about globalism, the press as well as the left and right elite have chosen this whole election for us. When you have a minute, look back and see how many unreal choices were made... you know the voters didn't make them. It will be interesting to see him buck them with socialism.

I'm still attempting to figure out why he's on a mission if he didn't chair the subcommittee, and where the expenses breakdown is. I'm also thinking there hasn't been a convention yet, he's not from the State Dept., why the heck is he broadcasting what these leaders tell him.

confession: I was kinda hoping though... when that piece-o-'news' re: Malike came out, Bush would've said 'screw you, let's get outta there then' (as if, I can dream), due to the press shilling and big mouth. In case no one noticed, there are two war fronts going, and some need to think before they speak (as evidenced by wrong votes in IL and present votes), an Alinsky disciple and constitutional lawyer should know better.

Oh well, time to dust off the Manifesto and flip through the little red book, who knows, maybe the civilian forces will tell on those who abuse thermostats, drive over 55, grill meat outside and eat what they want... I must plan accordingly.

Via the next first lady,

Barack Obama will require you to work. He is going to demand that you shed your cynicism. That you put down your divisions. That you come out of your isolation, that you move out of your comfort zones. That you push yourselves to be better. And that you engage. Barack will never allow you to go back to your lives as usual, uninvolved, uninformed.

Hmmm, no... i'll die with my cynicism, thanks.

Primer:

Socialism is premised on the assumption that only the government should decide what’s in the best interests of every citizen, even if that involves micro-managing every citizen’s political, economic and personal choices.

If we are a Capitalist society what does this mean for us?

Is there a re-education summer camp in your future? Will we all be sent out in solidarity with the farmers to help with the beet harvest? When will you need to convey your summer home to the “collective” for the good of workers?

Hmmm... I'd like to check back with the BushHitler crowd after the implementation of the five year plan after Obama wins... If possible. I lot of folks are really going to hate themselves after pushing him, I promise you that.
Trojan horse.

[Jay Rosen]

"This is just incredibly disturbing. I have no choice but to conclude that John McCain has simply no idea what is actually happened and happening in Iraq."

Hi Ilan: I was at your panel with Spencer Ackerman at Netroots Nation and asked that odd question about things being "impossible" militarily and why that would disqualify the US from doing them, just because they're impossible and can't work and will end in disaster. I didn't quite succeed in clarifying what I was asking about, but it bears on your post here, and your statement about having "no choice."

You do have a choice. You can decide that McCain is signaling that he's ready to continue with a peculiar policy move we saw during the Bush years: the defeat of reality-based policy making, the retreat from empiricism in the government as a whole, and the placement of impossible fantasies (like, "Chalabi will take over and we can leave by August...") in the middle of the most deadly and far-reaching strategic decisions.

I wrote about it back in March when McCain was stating that Iran is training Al Qaeda.

Maybe Iran is training Al Qaeda is a “last throes”-type statement, McCain’s way of signaling that he intends to pick up where Bush and Cheney left off in discarding the whole reality-based approach to policy-making. You plant dubious associations in the public mind, and then don’t care if you get called out on them because an image is left on the retina, so to speak. By demonstrating to the press that you can say false things, refuse to correct them, and pay no big price for it, you dishearten reporters and make their efforts appear futile to themselves. The press should be on the lookout for this from McCain.

I'd be grateful if someone with a strategic head would think through the consequences of continuing with the retreat from empiricism. I believe it is an alternative way of framing these things. Cheers.

[peter riggs]

Aside from the chronological errors, isn't there another problem with McCain's story? He says "Colonel McFarlane [phonetic] was contacted by one of the major Sunni sheiks. Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others." But didn't the major Sunni sheik in question get killed by AQ some months afterwards? Can't recall his name, but it was a big story at the time, and threw the Anbar awakening into doubt for a while, IIRC.

[Elrod]

JAZ,
Read the whole quote. When he says "nobody anticipated" he was referring to the drop in violence, not the Anbar Awakening.

[Elrod]

Armando,
You act as if there were no US forces in Anbar before the surge. The "official" kickoff of the Anbar Awakening (Anbar Salvation Council) was in late September 2006. There were thousands of Marines in Anbar ready to help the Sunni tribesmen working alongside Abu Risha. The tipping point came before the surge was even announced.

As Petraeus himself understands, an insurgent force can only survive if it has the support of the populace. Al Qaeda lost support among the Sunni populace, which had organized to defeat in the late summer and fall of 2006.

What the surge did was not sustain the Anbar Awakening. It helped apply a similar Awakening model in Baghdad and Diyala. That's no small potatoes.

You also discount one of the disastrous effects of the surge: the ethnic cleansing of Baghdad. For all their brutality, the Sunni insurgents did help "protect" Sunni Baghdad neighborhoods from Shi'ite thugs. With the Sunni insurgents on the run in Baghdad, the Sadrists had free reign to evict all the Sunnis from mixed neighborhoods. By August 2007, the map of Baghdad literally changed. The role of the surge troops at that point was mainly to build massive concrete barriers to shield off each neighborhood from outsiders.

[Elrod]

I should add, Armando, that any time an argument begins with the statement:

"The fact is that in December 2006 the argument was between a change of strategy and "surge" of forces, and a defunding of the war and precipitous withdrawal of forces."

You are offering a straw man argument.

The most high-profile option in the public domain at the time was the Iraq Survey Group report from James Baker and Lee Hamilton. It called for neither a "precipitous withdrawal and defunding of the war" nor a surge of troops. I'm sure Dennis Kucinich would love to have been able to cut off the purse strings. But Barack Obama never called for that.

There is no way to know what would have happened if the US had adopted the ISG recommendations, which fairly closely aligned with Obama's position.

But to say that the Anbar Awakening would have been crushed without the surge is untrue. Kagan is right that the surge certainly helped by providing some more manpower. But the surge forces did not fully arrive until June 2007, and did not begin to come on board until March. By that point Al Qaeda was already well on the run from Anbar.

[JAZ]

I thank the authors for this article because it exposes the shocking misrepresentations that Sen Obambi has been making to the national and international press corps.

Sen Obama has asserted abroad and to Couric and Moran that NO ONE could have anticipated that the Sunnis in the Anbar Awakening would turn against Al Queada.

Here are the quotes:

Obama says to Couric: "There is no doubt that the extraordinary work of our U.S. forces has contributed to a lessening of the violence, just as making sure that the Sadr militia stood down or the fact that the Sunni tribes decided to flip and work with us instead of with al-Qaeda - something that we hadn't anticipated
happening."

"SOmething that we hadn't anticipated happening".

Similarly on Nightline,

"Here is what I will say," Obama said, "I think that, I did not anticipate,and I think that this is a fair characterization, the convergence of not only the surge but the Sunni awakening in which a whole host of Sunni tribal leaders decided that they had had enough with Al Qaeda, in the Shii’a community the militias standing
down to some degrees. So what you had is a combination of political factors inside of Iraq that then came right at the same time as terrific work by our troops. Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct."

How did Sen Obama fail to anticipate the "Sunni flip" if it had started before his votes on the surge.

Seems to me Sen Obama failed to investigate the facts on the ground before he opposed the surge. Seems to me Sen Obama didn't even bother to check the facts before he made these bald faced lies to the international press corp. And this is the guy that Americans should entrust the lives of our troops? I "hope" not.

[Jass]

Jaz you are so stupid it's pukeable. He couldn't have anticiapted as it was happening it, eat s-hit you liar.

[Jass]

Jaz you are so stupid it's pukeable. He couldn't have anticiapted as it was happening it, eat s-hit you liar.

[JAZ]

I am a freaking drunk idiot who nails my sister and blogs w/ his free hand, i lie like a drunk, cause I am

[bwildered]

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Yes, it's true that the Anbar Awakening occurred before the escalation of troops to Iraq and McCain's calling (along with President Bush) for a "surge". However, to suggest it would have been maintained without an increase in U.S. troops is beyond reason. After all, this Awakening didn't magically happen, it occurred because of a U.S. strategy dedicated to winning over the tribal leaders and fence-sitters, convincing them to safely call out insurgents. The strategy that succeeded in Anbar became the model that was then implemented in other areas, and this of course, required more troops. Soon, it could also be the model for Afghanistan, where ironically Obama supports a "surge" (as does McCain).

Ms. Swin, in her comments, provides the following post to a Dept. of Defense press release as some kind of argument against the "surge" :

http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=3738

However, if you read the entire transcript, it becomes obvious that Colonel McFarland is arguing for more troops to continue doing the work that is successful in Anbar. Even that success can only e described as moderate in its early stages, as Colonel McFarland notes the progress that still needs to be made:

"You know, I was talking to somebody the other day, and I said attacks are down 25 percent. That still means we still have 75 percent of the attacks that we used to have, which are still a lot. So you can still go around and find bad news if you want to focus on bad news. It all depends on if you're a glass half empty or a glass half full kind of a person. Right now, you know, the glass is maybe three-quarters empty, a quarter full, but we're pouring more water in it all the time. "

McCain saw the success in Anbar as a reason to double our efforts in the rest of Iraq and win the war. Obama either didn't know about the success in Anbar or considered the glass 75% empty, choosing to focus only on the bad news. In either case, Obama proposed immediate retreat and withdrawal. McCain proposed the "surge." Now Obama and his most ardent supporters try to act like all this progress would have been made regardless of U.S. troops, that the glass could illogically become full without adding any new water. In fact, what they originally proposed is to discount the 25% success, pouring the water out by removing troops and leaving a vacuum of power. Now because we have no way of seeing the repercussions of their proposals, they want credit for the glass being full. Of course, if we had pulled out at their beckoning, and Iraq had deteriorated, they would congratulate themselves for predicting failure and withdrawing just in time.

So we had success in Anbar because of our deliberate strategy of increased security and troops, but increased security and troops would probably "lead to more bloodshed and violence" in Iraq according to Obama. Meanwhile, Obama gives credit to the Anbar Awakening for starting the movement that stabilized the country, even though he ignored its success or considered it a failure in its early days before the "surge", which he opposed. And, of course, this same "surge" which can't be credited for the winning situation in Iraq would help a lot in Afghanistan. This is frightening logic so twisted Hugo Chavez probably wishes he could get away with it.

It's a brilliant political strategy so long as you don't mind what effect it has on the country.

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The "Anbar Awakening" was a camel fart heard in the maqhas of Iraq by a liberal journalist.

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