History Vs. Campaign Issue Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Over at the Wonk Room Matt Duss makes an important point.  According to McCain:

Support for the Iraq invasion = a matter for historians. Support for the surge = a matter for the voters.

I think Matt is spot on in his assessment.  Unfortunately for McCain, I don't think the public is willing to ignore the mistake of going into Iraq in the first place.  It's sort of a big deal...

Comments

[Kreliav]

"Support for the Iraq invasion = a matter for historians. Support for the surge = a matter for the voters."

Actually, that sounds about right.

The wisdom of invading Iraq will forever involve a fruitless exercise in counterfactuals about what Iraq, the Middle East, and the rest of the world would look like had we left an unpredictable and unstable dictator at the helm of the region's most strategically consequential state.

By contrast, the surge question revolved around the simple matter of whether or not the surge would be successful in reducing violence. We know now how that turned out.

Only one of these issues can still be seriously debated.

[Eric Martin]

By contrast, the surge question revolved around the simple matter of whether or not the surge would be successful in reducing violence. We know now how that turned out.

Actually, the surge question should revolve around the question of whether or not it facilitated political accommodation and reconciliation. That was the goal that Bush and Petraeus both stated. They both stated that without that, the violence would continue regardless of short term reductions.

And we know that, thus far, it has not. Let the voters decide on that if you like.

[Kreliav]

Actually, the surge question should revolve around the question of whether or not it facilitated political accommodation and reconciliation. That was the goal that Bush and Petraeus both stated.

I think you would have a meaningful point if these two variables - violence and political cooperation - are seen as completely independent of each other. But I don't think it is really in serious dispute anymore that the reduced violence has facilitated political accommodation -- and vice-versa -- to the extent that Maliki now plainly declares that the Americans will not be necessary in sixteen months. Only the most deluded leftist ideologues observe this and see an impotent government paralyzed by political gridlock.

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