Would McCain Talk to Larijani? Posted by Adam Blickstein

Big news out of Iran today. Ali Larijani, Iran's  former head of nuclear negotiations and rival to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, became the Iranian parliament's new speaker today by a narrow an extremely wide margin. Larijani differs greatly from Ahmadinejad in demeanor, temperament, and some substance, favoring a more diplomatic approach on a host of external issues, including Iran's nuclear program in which he has favored a more inclusive approach:

Enmity between Larijani and Ahmadinejad runs deep. Larijani ran and lost against Ahmadinejad for the presidency in 2005. As Iran's nuclear negotiator he chafed against Ahmadinejad's belligerent international tone, which he complained undermined his talks with European leaders and international arms inspectors.

...European diplomats who have dealt with Larijani on the nuclear issue and other matters said he was far better informed and more flexible than Ahmadinejad's loyalists. He also appears to have Khamenei's ear. When Larijani quit as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator late last year over disagreements with Ahmadinejad, Khamenei's office intervened to have him stay on for a transition period.

As the article suggests, this portends a Spring 2009 showdown between the hardliners headed by Ahmadinejad and the realist/pragmatist wing lead by Larijani, who may have perhaps a tacit blessing, at the very least, from Ayatollah Khamenei, whom with Larijani is said to be a close follower.

Now Larijani is not an actor who would bring serious and needed reform domestically to Iran (while he was head of Iranian Radio & TV, he implemented cultural filters on foreign programming while also expanding Islamic broadcasting), but on the issue most salient to America's interests, Iran's nuclear program, he could represent a departure from Ahmidinejad's bellicosity. Though it's still extremely early (Larijani has already threatened to "review cooperation" with the IAEA after the UN body expressed concern over hidden information), Larijani's accession has the potential to create a new avenue for diplomacy, or at the very least, a greater likelihood of more high-level, back channel discussions.

With some Republican Presidential candidates wrongly asserting that Iran's President, not Ayatollah Khamenei, is the country's true political leader, would John McCain open the door towards diplomacy with Iran if a more conciliatory politician becomes President there? Or would a President McCain maintain his doctrinaire stance even if the political situation in Iran shifted, even if only in rhetoric and temperament?

 

Comments

[peace]

I personally believe that McCain would not talk to even a moderate Iranian leader, because during the nineties when moderate Iranians dominated the government, neocons and the foreign policy establishment, still took a hardline against Iran.

[Appalled Moderate]

The Iranian system is unusually opaque -- it isn't clear who you should talk to, and whether said person really has much power or not. I think the sort of forum shopping discussed in this post, however, approaches risible. Just because one guy might be reasonable does not mean the unreasonable can't and won't overrule him.

In any event, the Democratic arguments on this subject have been increasingly silly. It's as if a foreign politician pledged he would talk to the US leadership -- the opposition said "You mean Bush?" -- and the politician answered "No, Cheney, you stupid twit!" In this case, this little blog post would be a suggestion that, perhaps, the real guy to talk to is the Secretary of Defense, cause he seems to have some power, and is a rational kind of guy.