Between a Ran and a Hard Place Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

This LA Times article perfectly encapsulates the unenviable position in which the Iraqi government currently finds itself - stuck in a tug of war between Iran and the U.S. in which there is little incentive to take sides.

Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's spokesman backed away Sunday from Iraqi officials' accusations of Iranian interference, saying that a committee had been formed to determine whether there is merit to U.S. charges that its eastern neighbor is arming and training Shiite Muslim militants here.

But hours later, spokesman Ali Dabbagh told journalists that his comments at a news conference had been misinterpreted. In a telephone call with Reuters news agency, he said proof existed and the committee's job was to compile the evidence to submit to Iran.

U.S. officials are encouraging the Iraqi Government to take a more confrontational approach to Iran, but for all the bluster there is little incentive for Iraqi Shi'a politicians, many of whom spent their exile years in Tehran, to actually agitate a powerful neighbor like Iran.  Still, they aren't eager to confront the U.S., which has essentially put them in power.  So you end up with this mucked up tight rope act. 

A rational policy response to this whole situation would be for the United States to recognize that eliminating Iranian influence is all but impossible.  The best thing to do is agree on some kind of final settlement in Iraq that is at the very least tolerable to Iranian interests, so that at a very minimum Iran does not choose to play the role of spoiler. In an ideal world, Iran could actually play a constructive role as it did last month in negotiating the Basra ceasefire . 

But to get there, you need substantive and meaningful discussions at the highest level between Iranian and U.S. representatives.  Instead, what you get from the Bush Administration is saber rattling and meaningless  talks that are so limited by tight diplomatic instructions that they are predestined to fail.

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