Post SuperDuper Tuesday Blogging Posted by Michael Cohen

For fear that Ilan will come to my home and close the laptop really hard on my fingers I will limit my political blogging to once a week - but there's no way I'm not writing something about last night. Here are a few random thoughts:

REASON # 451 WHY McCAIN IS A WEAK NOMINEE: Not only did the Arizona Senator lose a majority of primaries yesterday, it really does appear that conservatives hate him. Across the board he lost among the GOP's most conservative voters, losing primaries in the Deep South and Far West - places that represent the GOP's base. What's more, he keeps winning in places where moderates are tipping the balance in his favor. Fairly obviously if McCain can't win among conservatives that's a problem, but the bigger issue is that now he has to spend the next few months moving to the right, which will hurt him among independents, which theoretically is the best advantage he had in the Fall race. If Obama is the nominee and he does particularly well among independents) the situation is ever harder for McCain. Catch-22, thy name is John McCain.

WHEN THE WALLS COME CRUMBLING DOWN: Back in New Hampshire I heard talk that Hispanics would be Hillary's firewall on Super Tuesday - and they were. She won big in California, New Jersey, Arizona and obviously New York. Without the Hispanic vote in these places (esp California where Obama won among whites) this thing would be over. But here's the problem, with 24 primaries to go there's only one state left where Hispanics dominate - Texas. And if you look at Hillary's base of support vs. that of Obama it's much more limited, basically she cleans up among older white women and Obama has seemingly opened up a lead among white men. She now has a month or two to broaden her support, but with Obama's huge fundraising advantage that will not be easy. The Hispanic firewall held, but the notion of the firewall was based on Hillary winning Super Tuesday, not fighting to a draw, which is basically what happened.

WHY THE DEMOCRATIC RACE IS LIKE THE PUSAN PERIMETER: So I've been reading David Halberstram's wonderful "The Coldest Winter," which helps explain this analogy. For those of you unfamiliar with the Korean War, in the early weeks of the war, the North Koreans drove down the peninsula and had the South Korean military (or what was left of it) and the Americans surrounded in the Pusan Perimeter. But they had stretched their supply lines and were exhausted from weeks of battle. They made one last effort to wipe out the Americans and it failed. A few weeks later MacArthur landed in Inchon and back up the peninsula the North Koreans went. That's kind of what happened yesterday. Hillary had Obama's back to the wall about a week or so ago and she really had to wipe out Obama last night. But she didn't. This doesn't mean he's going to win, but if you look at the primary map and the fundraising numbers Obama has the advantage going forward. Like the American forces in Pusan he has vaster resources. She could be fighting a rearguard action for a while, hoping that Obama does something stupid . . . like go all the way to the Yalu! Seriously though, it's very hard to imagine a situation where she beats him among pledged delegates. Even wins in Ohio and Texas would only counter-balance Obama's likely success in February. If Hillary wins this, my guess is that it happens at the convention (which by the way, considering her likely advantage among superdelegates could definitely happen).

PREDICTION TIME: That reminds me: here is my fearless prediction for how this thing turns out - brokered convention, baby! See ya in Denver!

"WE ARE THE ONES:" I actually thought Romney gave a pretty good speech, too bad we won't have him to kick around anymore. McCain was desultory as usual and can someone in the Hillary campaign buy her a teleprompter. Not only was her speech uninspiring but she was clearly reading it. Obama's speech was not his best performance and at times it seemed a bit overly harsh on Hillary, but oh can he close. That line about the "We are the ones we've been waiting for." I got goosebumps.

REASON #452 WHY MCCAIN IS A WEAK NOMINEE (IF OBAMA IS HIS OPPONENT VERSION): Everyone agrees that Obama has a problem with Hispanics, but McCain has a problem with conservatives who hate him for supporting amnesty. So if Obama is the nominee how does McCain keep anti-immigrant conservatives and Hispanics (especially Mexican-Americans) happy? There's that old Catch-22 again . . .

Comments

[Mike Costantini]

McCain is a war mongering idiot, he knows squat about the economy and our flawed monetary policy. Ron Paul proved that in the last debate where McCain did not answer his question. There will be a brokered convention and Paul will finally have his opportunity to speak to America. End the Fed, End the IRS, Adopt Non-Interventionism and restore the Constitution!

[walter]

Can someone please make obama stop the "Yes, We can!" its a stupid slogan and is pure pandering.

[Mike M.]

walter, the slogan bugs me too. But asking Obama to make changes right now... well... that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, does it?

[piglet1]

"We are the ones we've been waiting for". This is the title of a book by Alice Walker: http://www.feminist.com/resources/artspeech/genwom/wearetheones.html

It's also the title of a 2006 hip-hop album by a group called the Visionaries.

At any rate, it's a common phrase, and not original.

Get over it.

[piglet1]

"We are the ones we've been waiting for". This is the title of a book by Alice Walker: http://www.feminist.com/resources/artspeech/genwom/wearetheones.html

It's also the title of a 2006 hip-hop album by a group called the Visionaries.

At any rate, it's a common phrase, and not original.

Get over it.

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