The Dream Has Died
Posted by Michael Cohen
After seeing Mitt Romney's lackluster performance in today's GOP debate I'm ready to throw in the towel - there isn't going to be a brokered convention on the GOP side after all. It would really take something to see McCain lose the nomination now.
If I may paraphrase Michael Corleone, "Mitt, you broke my heart!"
But don't fret progressives, I may be the only person in America who believes this, but John McCain is eminently beatable in November. Not only is he wrong on the Iraq war (and wrong in a way that he can't get away from), but his top economic adviser is Jack Kemp (major red flag), he doesn't seem to understand how fiscal policy works (minor red flag), he can't deliver a speech to save his life (medium red flag) and most of all, he is going to be 72 years old (a red flag so big you could fly it in Tiananmen Square).
The age thing is Mccain's Achilles Heel. I don't want anyone to accuse me of being an ageist, but President is a tough job and color me unconvinced that a 72 year man can handle it. (As a point of reference my father is 75 and he can't drive at night!) For the record, McCain hasn't exactly had an easy 72 years.
Don't believe me, look what the American people have to say. In a February 2007 poll, people were asked which attributes would be a reason not to vote for someone for President.
Homosexual was 43%. Guess what "72-year old man was" - 42%. That's right: the same number of Americans who say they would not vote for a homosexual would not for an old man. Now if I told you that John McCain was a homosexual you would say there is no chance in hell he could win, but based on these numbers, how is "72 year old man" any different?
Here's why this really matters. If Obama is the nominee, the contrast between a 72-year old man and 46-year old fresh-faced Senator would absolutely play in Obama's favor. To me that is the dream match up for Obama and would absolutely bolster his change message. If Hillary is the nominee . . . well let's just say if you think she plays the race card well against Obama, imagine what she would do to an old man. I shudder at the thought!
I'm not a McCain supporter but it doesn't look like we are going to have a choice. I did read a Rasmussen poll yesterday that had McCain beating both Hillary and Obama by 6-7 points. McCain is hugely favored by independents which probably wouldn't vote for Hillary or Obama. You also have to remember, Bloomberg is waiting on the sidelines and if Romney gets the nomination it will be easier for Bloomberg to run (Perot all over again) giving Hillary a better chance to win. I keep looking back and wonder how these candidates were the best we had to offer.
Posted by: Joe Godfrey | January 31, 2008 at 06:04 AM
I think Michael's right here -- polls that give McCain and edge over Clinton or Obama now are probably not as meaningful as people think. McCain will not be able to tout his own "experience" without drawing attention to his age. The thing McCain has going for him is a fawning press. But the press also fawns over Obama. So if it's Obama, that could be a wash. If it's Hillary, McCain gets the edge with the press but Michael's right, Hillary will launch some barbed attacks and that will be fun to watch.
Posted by: Mike M. | January 31, 2008 at 12:17 PM
If McCain wins the Republican nomination, my two least favorite scenarios are likely to occur: Bloomberg won't run and the Republicans will win.
Posted by: Simmons | January 31, 2008 at 05:30 PM
Hillary is not going to beat McCain. Her negatives are too high and many democrats will not vote for her. McCain has large support among independents and few of these will support Hillary.
Obama has support among independents and even some Republicans and generates larger than average turnout for those supporting him. Whatever the polls say now is meaningless. If it's between Obama and McCain in 10 months the smart money would bet now on Obama. At the least he has a wonderful chance that gets better with a VP choice like Webb from VA.
With that said it's stunning the Dems seemingly want to throw the best chance of winning away on Hillary. Not to mention the best chance of effective governing. Obama works and plays well with others while Hillary is a polarizing figure.
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The thing McCain has going for him is a fawning press. But the press also fawns over Obama. So if it's Obama, that could be a wash. If it's Hillary, McCain gets the edge with the press but Michael's right, Hillary will launch some barbed attacks and that will be fun to watch
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