Sea Ladder of Escalation in the Perisan Gulf Posted by David Shorr

Interesting NYT op-ed today by military historian David Crist on Iran's recent provocations in the Persian Gulf. He's right of course about the importance of preserving the open sea lanes in the Gulf, and he has some good ideas about mobilizing international support. We need to take a close look, though, at his ideas about how an escalated confrontation can be controlled and kept from mushrooming into a full-blown war. Our own Max Bergmann last week picked up on Fred Kaplan's point about the dangerous lack of communication channels with Tehran.

I have a few questions about the moves that Crist considers measured responses:

1. Would "any attempt by the Revolutionary Guard to interfere with the free navigation of international waters" really be equivalent to a terrorist attack?
2. Are you sure that American attacks on the islands of Abu Musa and Farsi would be seen as minimally provocative in contrast to striking the mainland? I agree that the Iranian government is susceptible to pressure, but this seems like a huge assumption with extremely high stakes. The author is relying on a kind of universal language of military 'signals,' a pretty risky business.
3. How can we be sure that Tehran will respond just as they did 1988? When I was in grad school, they taught us to look at the differences as well as similarities between current situations and earlier ones.
4. In sum, then, what if you're wrong? Will we be just as confident about the wisdom of brushing the Revolutionary Guard back this way if Iran doesn't back down?

Recently I saw a preview of an interesting new documentary, "Virtual JFK," by Errol Morris and the makers of "Fog of War." The film focused on Pres. Kennedy's repeated caution in avoiding military moves that could be escalatory. Seems to me we could use that kind of prudence.

Comments

[cheap eve isk]

Here is the eve isk,
eve online isk is the regular site.
buy isk we supply the regular service.
I like to buy eve online isk here.

[cheap requiem lant]

When you have requiem gold, you will become strong. With requiem lant, you can upgrade and admire by others. You can use requiem money to start the journey of the world. So, do not hesitate, let us move to buy cheap requiem lant

[buy sof gold]

According to the agreement of the game, I should get the Scions Of Fate gold to go into the world of the game and SOF gold is sold by some companies. The Scions Of Fate money is not free and it will take some money to own the cheap SOF gold.

[dd]

I hope i can get FFXI Gil in low price,
Yesterday i bought FFXI gold for my friend.

[Buy Perfect World Gold]

What do you know Perfect World Gold. And do you want to know? You can Buy Perfect World Gold here.

[pandora bracelet]

i like it

[Nightly Business Report]

The enormous destructive potential of even a few thousand nuclear weapons launched against military forces illustrates why such a reduction is necessary. thanks

[Gatehouse Academy Reviews]

Max Bergmann picked up on Fred Kaplan's point about the dangerous lack of communication channels with Tehran.

[North Scottsdale Audi]

Iranian government is susceptible to pressure, but this seems like a huge assumption with extremely high stakes.

[Liushuanglin198606]

ugg boots clearance On my Egypt Air flight yesterday to Cairo, I witnessed one of the more intriguing in-flight exchanges that I can remember. A bearded, well-dressed man sitting a few seats behind me began shouting at the flight attendant. He was complaining that the in-flight movie was inappropriate. What are these “offensive images?” he asked. These included a 15-minute stretch of the movie where at least one woman at any given time was wearing a bikini. In a couple of scenes at a club, members of opposite sexes were dancing in close proximity while, it appeared, consuming alcoholic beverages. “Are we really all Westernized now?” the man behind me asked,ugg boots clearance as if posing a question to those of us in the back of the plane.

The man’s arguments were rather interesting. He pointed out that if you took a poll of the passengers,ugg boots outlet most would agree the film was morally offensive. He asked the attendant, “if we ask the passengers what they think and they agree with me, then what will you do?” The attendant responded, “we don’t take public opinion (ra’i al ‘am) on the airplane.” The man was right: most passengers, and most Egyptians – the vast majority of whom don’t drink, go to clubs, or wear bikinis – would object to the film’s content. But at what point do they have the right to restrict minority expressions of unfaithfulness?ugg boots clearance

It was an odd, amusing exchange that justified the otherwise unpleasant experience of flying on EgyptAir.ugg boots clearance But it was a reminder of the fundamental lack of consensus in the Arab world over the boundaries and limits of the state. There are two groups – Islamists and secular elites – with worldviews which couldn’t be more different. They live parallel lives in parallel worlds, with parallel institutions. They rarely intersect.ugg boots clearance One group believes it has both history and the Egyptian people on its side. The other side, considerably smaller in number, likely has neither. It does, however, have the power.

This stalemate has paralyzed the Arab world for decades now.ugg boots outlet

Sunday’s elections will be just another version of this.ugg boots clearance The main players are the Muslim Brotherhood – populist, religious, and righteous – and the regime coalition which, with its president soon to pass, finds itself in an uncertain place. Both sides are strong in different ways – and weak in others. Neither seems to have anything resembling a coherent strategy for dealing with the impending transition that is soon to come.

ugg boots clearance

[Capital Gold Group]

Well was really nice Interesting NYT op-ed today by military historian David Crist on Iran's recent provocations in the Persian Gulf..thanks for sharing with us..

[PetCareRx Reviews]

The film focused on Pres. Kennedy's repeated caution in avoiding military moves that could be escalatory.Thanks

[Gaia Saunas]

I think the author is relying on a kind of universal language of military 'signals,a pretty risky business.