One year since the surge Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

So, if you haven't figured it out yet, today is the one year anniversary of the President's surge speech.  Joe Lieberman and John McCain are celebrating the fact the surge worked, even as  Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle Eastern Affairs Mark Kimmitt asserts that there's only a 3 in 10 chance that this will actually work in the long run.  (I actually put the odds at lower than that.)

Over at NSN, we have a piece outlining the lack of progress on the political front as well as a closer look at the dubious "Awakening" strategy.  Brian Katulis and Peter Juul outline four ticking time bombs.   In short form, here are the major concerns.  I've written about them many times before, but it seems appropriate today.

1.  There is still no political reconciliation at the national level or agreement on how Iraqis will share power.  Yes.  Yes.  We've heard this many times before:  political reconciliation, oil law, de-baathification, etc..   Ultimately all of these are the details of what is really a much broader question.  Can Iraqis come to some kind of national accommodation on how to share power.  So far, the answer seems to be no.  And they have been trying for a few years now.   If anything, the situation has gone backwards in the last year.

2.  The dubious nature and sustainability of the "Awakening."  There are no clear indications that deals at the local level with various Sunni tribal leaders will actually lead to anything other than an exacerbated civil war.   The Shi'a Iraqi central government distrusts these groups, has refused to arm them, and at times there have been skirmishes between them and Iraqi Security Forces.  Meanwhile, the "Awakening" isn't as much a movement as a splintered group.  There is internal fighting for power, as well a struggle between the Sunnis who have been in the central government for the past two years and the tribal leaders who want more influence. 

3.  What about the North and the South?  We have no idea what is going in the South at this point.  Meanwhile, in the North you have major tensions between Kurds and Arabs around Kirkuk that could eventually explode into war.  You have Al Qaeda in Iraq gaining a stronghold in Mosul, and of course you have issues with the PKK and cross border fighting with Turkey.

In all, we are no sitting on a big, splintered, divided, ugly mess.  The basic fundamentals haven't changed and there really doesn't seem to be any strategy for how we might change that situation.  Instead, we are still one catalytic event away (Such as the Samarra bombing) from returning to full scale civil war   

Comments

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What about the cost of the actual surge? I don't know what the extra dollar costs were but we lost 790 lives to achieve very little.

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Good point. Somewhere in the $100 billion range for the past year. And 900 lives in the last year.

[Mike M.]

Thanks for the updated numbers, Ilan. I know I make too big a point of it but it seems to me that when people discuss whether or not the surge is working they don't reflect the costs. My used 95 Hyundai might be working but if I paid 50 grand for it, would be hard to argue I got a great deal.

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