On the Scene Posted by Michael Cohen

The mood here at the Obama event isn't as glum as one would expect, but folks here look a bit shell-shocked. No one saw this coming and no one seems to have a good argument for why it happened. But I suppose this is the beauty of democracy; it doesn't really count until the voters have been heard. After five days in which everyone thought Obama couldn't lose (including yours truly) this is a veritable political earthquake; just stunning.

Everyone is talking up the tears effect, but I think Hillary's angered response to Edwards charge that she represents the status quo might have helped too. If you watched that Saturday debate you couldn't help but get the sense that Edwards and Obama were ganging up on her (I also think Obama's snarky "you're nice enough" might not have helped either). Maybe it's the Lazio effect; Hillary looked sympathetic. After Gloria Steinem's somewhat absurd op-ed this morning in the NYT about the anti-feminist element of the race, maybe that's what turned the tide - female solidarity.  My understanding was that the campaign really went after female voters in the past few days. Clearly it worked.

Even in defeat Obama's speech was pretty solid; he talked up the "Yes we can" theme last night, but now it looks like this is going to be the new message going forward. To his credit, he really didn't stray too far from his message. He's still peddling the same line, but there is a real question as to whether it will continue to work. I think he may need to more sharply delineate his message.

It's a whole new race. I'm not sure who's the new frontrunner, but it kind of feels like Hillary.

On

Comments

[Mike M.]

If you're going to pick the front runner state by state, you're bound to get whiplash.

I also think it's funny how you try to spin Hillary's victory here as either the result of feminist identity politics orn due to some notion that Edwards and Obama "ganged up on her."

Maybe, just maybe, she won on substance tonight. It's possible, isn't it?

[rawdawgbuffalo]

they both got nine deligates (HC and BO). i have a completely different view of the primaries thus far.... poor mr or mrs next president

[Dan Kervick]

I don't believe the debate had much of an effect. The debate was on Saturday, and there was still polling Sunday night. Obama had his biggest lead in those last polls. I think there were two factors: one was that the polls underestimated turnout in the Clinton urban base, and the other is the crying jag that came too late to be captured by polls. The polls did not show the huge advantage for Clinton among women that materialized tonight.

But if we're looking for a quirly theory, here's one: maybe there are a lot of women who are closet Clinton supporters, and wouldn't tell the phone pollsters that Clinton was their choice while their husbands were listening.