Men of Mystery Posted by Patrick Barry

I went to an interesting talk today at the US Institute of Peace, with the somewhat noirish title “Iraq’s Mystery Men: Insurgents, Tribes, and Sadrists.” What’s so mysterious about insurgents, tribes and Sadrists you’re probably asking? Well quite a bit, though apparently not so much as there used to be.  For some time, these groups have played a more shadowy role in internal Iraqi politics, but now each seems poised to step out of obscurity to take a more significant place for themselves.  Views from the panel indicated that the Sadrists’s recent truce has allowed them the space to consolidate their power; tribesmen have used the awakening movement to come to make demands for inclusion; and insurgent organizations have remade themselves into political-military parties in the style of Hamas or Hezbollah.

Without delving too deeply into the specifics of what the panelists discussed, there seemed to be agreement that during the last several months, a view that the US occupation is coming to an end (albeit deliberately) has taken hold in Iraq, which has prompted a political awakening among the various ethnic and sectarian factions (looks like the folks at CAP are on to something.)  Guided by a perception that the US presence in the country is on the wane, former spoilers have coalesced into new, more coherent movements, movements which are now jockeying for political advantage, competing for American largess, and struggling to amass anything that will strengthen their relative position. To paraphrase panelist Daniel Serwer, a thaw has occurred in Iraq, and the political environment is now fluid.

These developments are typically viewed positively, and with some cause.  Violence in Iraq has lessened to the point where the different players recognize an opportunity to converge and enter the political sphere (though this has far more to do with the awakenings and the perception of an American departure, than the implementation of the surge.) But we have to be careful not to confuse movement with reconciliation.  The emergence of these new political forces by itself, does not portend greater stability.  In fact, if they are not integrated sufficiently into the country broader governing structure (which events indicate is the case), the results could be disastrous. 

Where there were once relatively few influential political coalitions with numerous ‘mystery’ movements operating on the periphery, now there are multiple parties, of differing sectarian and ethnic compositions, each with legitimate claim to the future status of Iraq’s government and each with the force and following to back those claims.  The Sadrists, the Political Council of the Iraqi Resistance, and the Anbar Salvation Council are all examples of entities whose political consciousness has stirred, yet still insist on maintaining experienced, well-armed militias with no ties to the central authority in Baghdad.   Why do they feel a need to keep those armed men at their side? What end do they seek?  Here's a hint – it’s not reconciliation.