New Thinking for the US Role in Asia Posted by Heather Hurlburt

I wonder whether it's a coincidence that I found two interesting re-thinks of Asian geopolitics in my inbox the same day.  In the months between now and the Beijing Olympics, we're going to read a drumbeat of cheap, often inflammatory commentary about China threat this, and giant market that.  This is good stuff to inoculate yourself with first:

Jeff Laurenti and Matt Homer of the Century Foundation have a good brief analysis of how the Australian elections deal the final blow to VP Cheney's vision of an Indo-Austro-Japanese-US alliance to contain China.

David Shorr's Stanley Foundation colleague Michael Schiffer posits that the six-party talks might eventually serve as the nucleus of Northeast Asian regional security arrangements.  I disagree with his emphasis on institutionalization, and some of the specific "way forward" proposals seem off to me, but this is far, far above the usual "Asia should replicate the OSCE" or "all relevant democracies should join NATO" stuff you often get on this subject.

Comments

[Don Bacon]

It's difficult to comment on any "new thinking for the US Role in Asia" without any evidence of new US thinking, or even knowing who the six governments are.

What is the evolving US role in Asia? It used to be that the reason the US needed a naval presence in the East China and South China Seas, and the Indian Ocean, was to safeguard shipping. But now the Chinese and Indian navies are modernizing what's the future requirement for a US fleet, except to confront China?

There is no mention of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, whose full and observer members form not only the world's largest economic power but also the world's biggest producer and consumer of energy and 25% of Earth's land area. Members: Russia, China and the Stans; Observers: India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia. India wants full membership, and if a package deal can be worked out with Pakistan then US power in Asia takes another hit. Oh, and it looks like the "politically isolated" Iran isn't so isolated after all.

Regarding Northeast Asia, the US has been actively resisting the signing of a peace treaty in Korea and fighting the reconciliation of the two Koreas. How long can this go on, considering Japan's move away from the US, and China's increasing power?

This is a great subject but we need more information.

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