Something's happening in Northern Virginia... Posted by Max Bergmann

The Democratic take over of the State Senate in Virginia and Tim Kaine's victory in 2005 were due largely to Democratic gains in rapidly growing exurban counties in Northern Virginia. Some see this merely as the result of population growth, as more traditionally urban-based liberals have moved into formerly rural and conservative areas. Another popular attribution is that this is apart of the backlash against George Bush. There is certainly something to both of these points, but they fail to completely explain the turnaround.

What we are seeing isn’t just some psychological shift - but a backlash. At the local level, where the rubber literally meets the road, Republicans have been in charge and have pursued conservative free market policies that have created increasing sprawl and increasing traffic that are directly impacting quality of life.

Most of the people in the exurbs moved there to get the post card version of the “American Dream” - a large house, white picket fence, and a three-car garage. These conservatives elected conservatives, not just to national office, but to local office as well. As a result, local conservative politicians supported uncontrolled growth policies, and have resisted efforts to manage such growth.

But as these exurbans communities grow, tranquility ceases. More and more sprawling communities are built and the existing transportation infrastructure simply cannot cope. Traffic becomes a plague, commutes into the city dramatically increase, and simple errands like driving to the grocery store become a major hassle.

Now, many of these conservative exurban voters, formerly supportive of local leaders favoring uncontrolled growth policies, are now desperate for a more pro-active government to control growth. A large par of the reason Tim Kaine, a man from Richmond, won conservative Loudoun county in Northern Virginia, when Mark Warner from Alexandria in Northern Virginia, did not, was due in large part to his focus on transportation issues.

An LA Times story yesterday on the falling housing market concluded that there was frustration in the exurbs as more and more Republicans are claiming to be independents. One notable quote, "Every house that's built out there raises my taxes," Schroeder fumed. "I don't appreciate getting my assessment telling me that my house is worth $500,000 and I'm paying taxes on that."

So how do progressives capitalize on these issues at the national level?

The difficulty is that uncontrolled growth is often a byproduct of a lack of local coordination. Localities suffer from a kind of “race to the bottom,” where different counties or localities are unable to institute growth control policies as a result of fear of losing businesses and developers (and therefore revenue) to neighboring localities that have more lax policies.

Basically, addressing traffic and sprawl is difficult to do on a national level. However, creative ideas such as a national “smart growth fund” - that would provide grants and assistance to localities pursuing “smart growth” policies - could provide an important incentive. One could even imagine seeing a bizarre coalition forming in favor of smart growth policies, similar to environmentalists and gun toting ranchers joining to support environmental policies out west. At the very least, progressives on a national level should start talking about these issues and tap into the seething discontent that is starting to bubble to the surface.

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