Cutting the Cord on Musharraf, and a Moratorium on Making Eye Contact with Foreign Leaders Posted by Shadi Hamid

Josh Kurlantzick has an excellent piece in TNR on Pakistan. He hammers in the point that Musharraf has not been good for democracy or for stability, and, to boot, he's been strikingly ineffective in the one thing he's supposed to be good at - fighting terrorism. The conclusion then? It's time to abandon Mush. Personally, I'm not sure I'd go so far to say abandon him altogether (if only because that would be impractical and no one in the foreign policy establishment would go for it), but I think there's no doubt that serious and sustained pressure must be exerted on him, with clear expectations of what we'd like to see in response. If that doesn't work, then we need to follow through with aid cuts. In any case, make sure to read Kurlantzick's whole piece. It's a strong case he makes:

It's time for America to cut the cord on Musharraf and throw in entirely with the country's democratic forces. The Bush administration has repeatedly called for elections in Pakistan, and Musharraf has ignored it. The administration has funneled gargantuan sums of money to Pakistan--over $10 billion since the 9/11 attacks--and Musharraf has misspent that. Despite some initial, post-9/11 victories against extremists near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, Musharraf has allowed radical movements in Pakistan to multiply, while stifling the change Pakistan truly needs: the development of a new generation of democratic-minded leaders that would challenge the generals and corrupt old politicians for power.

But, wait, why is the U.S. so unwilling to take decisive action on the matter? Well, maybe it's because Bush is using the same personal-gut-radar that failed him (and us and, well, millions of Russians) so miserably before. 

As Derek Chollet and Craig Cohen note recent article in the Washington Quarterly, President Bush announced last year: "When [Musharraf] looks me in the eye and says there won't be a Taliban and won't be Al Qaeda, I believe him."

I hereby propose a moratorium on making extensive eye contact with foreign leaders. Any takers?

Comments

[Don Bacon]

Here's a good read, from Juan Cole's Global Affairs blog.

Anonymous said...

Might I add that what we are seeing in these areas is not a 'Pakistani' insurgency. To understand why this is occurring where it is, one must look back to how the British made peace with Imperial Russia, namely settling on the deal which formed the Durand Line.
This line split the Emirate of Afghanistan into two. As a result what we call NWFP, was once part of Afghanistan, and the people there consider it to be still as such.
When Musharraf sent troops into this area to 'establish control' the word in the area went out the the 'Pakistanis were invading Afghanistan!'.
NWFP is not a part of Pakistan in any real sense. But the army of Pakistan (Musharraf) won't give NWFP province to Afghanistan, and this is a very real fear on the army's part, that Karzai is after NWFP.
Twice the Pakistanis have invaded NWFP twice they have been beaten. This is a disaster for Musharraf. The men from the Punjab don't want to fight with the Afghans, they don't care what happens there, its not that important to them.

The Taliban are not based in NWFP they are based in Quetta, in Pakistan. They have offices you can go and see them meet them.
The ISI and the Taliban work together, to prevent the freedom of NWFP, by making a simple deal, 'we put you in power, you keep Pakistan together'.

They all STILL support terrorism in Kashmir which where this all began and of course if NWFP split from Pakistan imagine the damage that would do to the legitimate cause in Kashmir where most of the Kashmiri's would vote to join Pakistan but for Indian human rights abuses and anti-democracy attitude there.

I think that Musharraf is taking the worst of all roads, in his efforts, he is hastening the day when the ISI/Taliban, NWFP issues and Kashmir will all converge and only God knows what will happen. One thing is for sure, I would be crapping myself if I lived in New Dehli during that time.

Does the ISI envision taking on the army, or is the army split in opinion? One thing is for sure, the bourgoise of Pakistan are not being listened to, and that in itself is a danger to stability. Suddenly the market for revolutionary groups looking for sympathizers just got very much bigger. For a long while it looked like the Pakistani middle-classes could have tolerated Musharraf in his dictatorship as long as THEY were left alone, now though that hope is gone.
Events in Pakistan may change dramatically soon.

[Don Bacon]

Josh Kurlantzick quotes that well-known Pakistan expert [not!], Frances Fragos Townsend, whom, according to Kurlantzick "admitted that the general's supposed [anti-terrorist] campaign 'hasn't worked for Pakistan.'" Some "admission" from someone who knows nothing about Pakistan. Townsend was appointed Homeland Security Advisor by the President on May 28th, 2004. Ms. Townsend chairs the Homeland Security Council and reports to the President on United States Homeland Security policy and Combating Terrorism matters. She previously served as Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism.

Ms. Townsend came to the White House from the U. S. Coast Guard, where she had served as Assistant Commandant for Intelligence. Prior to that, Ms. Townsend spent 13 years at the U. S. Department of Justice in a variety of senior positions, her last assignment as Counsel to the Attorney General for Intelligence Policy. Ms. Townsend began her prosecutorial career in 1985, serving as an Assistant District Attorney in Brooklyn, New York.

Perhaps Townsend relied on learned South Asian advice from the new US Ambassador to Pakistan, Anne W. Patterson, who also has no experience in South Asia. Nada. Nothing. Zip. Patterson was confirmed as the U.S. Ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan by the United States Senate on June 28, 2007, and was sworn in on July 6, 2007. Prior to her assignment to Pakistan, Ambassador Patterson served as the Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs. Ambassador Patterson also served as the Deputy Permanent Representative and Acting Permanent Representative at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations from 2004 to 2005. A Career Minister in the Foreign Service of the United States, Ambassador Patterson has also served as the Deputy Inspector General of the Department of State from 2003 to 2004, Ambassador to Colombia from 2000 to 2003, and Ambassador to El Salvador from 1997 to 2000.

Ambassador Patterson joined the U.S. Foreign Service in 1973 as an economic officer. She has served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Inter-American Affairs and as Office Director for Andean Affairs. Mrs. Patterson also served as Political Counselor to the U.S. Mission to the United Nations in Geneva from 1988 to 1991 and as Economic Counselor in Saudi Arabia from 1984 to 1988. She has held a variety of other economic and political assignments, including in the Bureau of Inter-American Affairs, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, and the Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs.

Well, at least Patterson's experience with drugs should serve her well--Pakistan is part of the "Golden Crescent" route of drugs, Afghanistan-Pakistan-Iran. Keep 'em flowing, Anne.

It's a ship of fools.

[IlanG]

Don,

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