Allawi Will Never Run Iraq Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

There is no way Iyad Allawi will ever run Iraq.  This is strictly a Washington story (And I gotta say the Republican lobbying angle is distributing).  But the man has zero support inside Iraq and so the only way into power is through a military coup, which is impossible to pull off right now.   This is no different then when the neocons supported Chalabi before the war, only to have him fall flat on his face once he got to Iraq because he had no support amongst the population.

The reality is that if Maliki were to lose a no-confidence vote you would have total deadlock in the Iraqi government and no one would be able to form a governing coalition.  It took the Iraqis five months to form the Maliki government the first time (January-May 2006), and you'd probably have an equally long stand off today.  That is why the NIE concluded that "Maliki will continue to benefit from recognition among Shi'a leaders that searching for a replacement could paralyze the government."

Ironically, one of the more sensible pieces on this comes from Nibras Kazimi.  He clearly has his own vehemently pro Shi'a agenda, having worked for Ahmed Chalabi at the Iraqi National Congress and on the de-Baathification Commission (Surprise, he is now at the Hudson Institute).  To be very clear, I don't agree with much of what Kazimi says in his post, but the vote counting he does in the Iraqi Parliament seems to be on the money.

-No one can pull-off a military coup in Iraq.

-Parliament is out for another three weeks, so Maliki is not facing an immediate no-confidence vote.

-Adel Abdel-Mahdi, the current Vice-President, cannot deliver SCIRI’s parliamentary votes for the Allawi camp.

-The Sadrists won’t vote for Allawi.

-The Da’awa Party won’t follow former PM Ibrahim Jaafari if he moves against Maliki.

-Anyone seen as “Saudi Arabia’s guy”—as Allawi projects himself, although that may not really be the case as far as the Saudi leadership is concerned—is not likely to get Sistani & Co. to go along with this plan.

-The Iranians won’t let this happen, and they have far more political cards to play in Iraq than the Americans—and they can play those cards smarter than O’Sullivan.

-Why would the Kurds substitute their strong alliance with the Shiites, who are going to run the country for a very long time to come, in return for the fleeting favor of the defeated Sunnis (their rivals on Kirkuk) and a politician such as Allawi whose word really doesn’t go that far?

-Qasim Daoud, a favorite of the Emirati leadership and another PM candidate as far as the Americans are concerned, has too many corruption scandals hovering around his head.

-My sources tell me the following: one of the principal actors who was attempting to bring down Maliki has left Iraq for an extended vacation, telling anyone who’d listen that it can’t be done.

I’ll say it: the Americans are irrelevant to political events in Iraq.

Comments

[Don Bacon]

The problem isn't Maliki or Allawi, the problem is the US policy of continuing its military occupation of a foreign country where the 'government' is not motivated to govern because the US hasn't, as Rumsfeld said we should, "take the training wheels off". Instead, after getting rid of Generals Abizaid and Casey, who counseled against it, the US escalated its military presence and thereby further weakened the Iraqi 'government'.

from the Salt Lake Tribune:
President Bush's troop surge in Iraq was supposed to improve security in Baghdad enough that the Maliki government could patch up sectarian differences and move boldly toward a united nation. But the latest U.S. intelligence estimate says that vision is a pipe dream.
Security has improved, at least in spots, but despite that the Maliki government has failed at Iraqi reconciliation, according to the latest National Intelligence Estimate. In fact, it says, "Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively."
U.S. intelligence analysts aren't telling us anything that Americans can't see on their TV screens every day. It should be obvious by now that the Shia-dominated Maliki government will never lead Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs and the Kurds back into a common fold, and it is a cruel hoax to continue to pour American blood and treasure into that false hope. As Sen. John Warner bluntly told the president on Thursday, it is time to begin bringing American troops home.

[Hani Qasim Al-Baghdadi]

"the man has zero support inside Iraq "
>WRONG WRONG WRONG! Allawi is the most supported man in Iraq. The walls are being graffitied with things like 'where are you abu hamza?' (another name for Allawi).
All polls conducted show that support is 1-Allawi, 2-Jaafari.
The fact is the Iraqi people think that Allawi is a lite-version of Saddam, and that is why the taxi drivers, the grocers, and everyone you see on the street supports Allawi. Of course the author makes unsubtantiated comments and expects us to believe them and he has probably never visited Baghdad.

-No one can pull-off a military coup in Iraq.
I agree...don't you think Allawi knows that! just how clever are you!

-Parliament is out for another three weeks, so Maliki is not facing an immediate no-confidence vote.
Yes....but soon after, whats going to happen?

-Adel Abdel-Mahdi, the current Vice-President, cannot deliver SCIRI’s parliamentary votes for the Allawi camp.
With the right pressure applied from the right places, Abd Al-Aziz Al-Hakim can and would vote for Allawi.

-The Sadrists won’t vote for Allawi.
Wrong - Allawi has developed strong links with Sadrists. He went after mehdi army (the militias) not the Sadrists (who are in the political process). Sadrists now want to follow a line of national unity.

-The Da’awa Party won’t follow former PM Ibrahim Jaafari if he moves against Maliki.
Wrong! You really don't follow Iraqi politics- the split has effectively taken place, and da'wa are already with Jaafari.

-Anyone seen as “Saudi Arabia’s guy”—as Allawi projects himself, although that may not really be the case as far as the Saudi leadership is concerned—is not likely to get Sistani & Co. to go along with this plan.
He's not seen as a Saudi guy by the Iraqi media- read the Iraqi media before you make comments on how Allawi is seen. He is seen as someone supported by the WHOLE Arab region.

-The Iranians won’t let this happen, and they have far more political cards to play in Iraq than the Americans—and they can play those cards smarter than O’Sullivan.
Yes that's right- the only one's standing against Allawi are Iran.

-Why would the Kurds substitute their strong alliance with the Shiites, who are going to run the country for a very long time to come, in return for the fleeting favor of the defeated Sunnis (their rivals on Kirkuk) and a politician such as Allawi whose word really doesn’t go that far?
Because he will stand up for them against Turkey (as he has done before), and will provide a secure and safe Iraq which is in the interests of the Kurds, as a destabilised Iraq will eventually affect the Kurds.

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[m3i zero]

Very well written article.I have query on this mater.I would like to ask is Allawi the Duong Van Minh of Iraq? We know what happened after the second time Duong Van Minh led Vietnam.

[Infrapunasauna]

The Iranians won’t let this happen, and they have far more political cards to play in Iraq than the Americans—and they can play those cards smarter than O’Sullivan.

[Account Deleted]

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