Speaking of situations that could get out of control Posted by Moira Whelan

Now without taking sides in the debate as to whether or not Russia has something against Georgian corn and potatoes and therefore may or may not have decided to bomb some poor farmer’s field, this does not look good.

A walk down memory lane provided by Reuters (abridged here):

-- Georgia's uneasy post-Soviet relations become openly hostile after the 2003 "Rose Revolution" which propels President Mikhail Saakashvili to power. Saakashvili … pursues close relations with the United States.

-- Moscow and Tbilisi bicker over Georgia's restive breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

--Moscow considers the United States is encroaching on its traditional influence in Georgia and the Caucasus.

--Georgia is dependent on gas from Russia but this dependence will decline in years to come when a BP-led pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey opens.

-- Russia has banned imports of Georgian wine, fruit and even mineral waters such as Borjomi, one of Georgia's biggest revenue earners.

-- Transport and trade links were cut after Georgia paraded Russian military officers on TV who it said were spies, in September 2006. Although some communications since resumed, there are still no direct flights between the capitals.

Let’s put this in the current context of US relations. I don't think any Black Sea specialist would dispute that the region is in some ways a powder keg, but would the United States really be in a position to do anything about it? SHOULD the United States be trying to do something about it. Afterall, the United States loves democracy and therefore has some affinity from the break-away from our former nemesis, Georgia. There are major challenges with Russia’s oil dominance. The United States has a major concern about the pipeline that is going through Georgia, which is certainly complicated by the ethnic challenges that exist in Odessa and Abkhazia, not to mention the long-standing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But now, let’s be realistic: what kind of brokerage power would the United States have to assist in this situation? What could be realistically brought to the table?

I’m sure Black Sea watchers will correct me, but it appears that this is a situation in which the United States would take tremendous interest, yet unlike the past, are there real opportunities that exist to make a difference that come with being the world's superpower, or will Europe’s influence surpass ours, and is this a sign of the times or just a regional reality?
   

Comments

[Peace]

The reality is that the United States really cannot be effective in settling this dispute. If the United States is too aggressive with Russia that could led to some sort of military confrontation which is dangerous considering that Russia has nuclear weapons. Moreover, the European Union is relunctant to get involved because a large percentage of its gas comes from Russia. So in retropect there is little that either the EU or the United States could do that would change the situation.

[Joe Lucas]

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