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June 02, 2007

Slouching Towards An Embassy in Jerusalem?
Posted by Jerry Mayer

So I'm reading Bob Shrum's autobiography, No Excuses, to review it for Politico, and one foreign policy incident stands out. In 1980, Carter's administration voted at the UN against Israeli annexation of Jerusalem. Kennedy's primary campaign tried to rally Jewish voters against Carter on that basis, and seemed to have some success in New York. The status of Jerusalem as Israel's capital has been a perennial feature of first Democratic primary politics and now Republican. I think in 2008 it might break out into the general election in a bigger way, because the Republicans will once again attempt to use strident support for Israel to peel Jewish voters away from the Democratic coalition. In 2000, Bush promised that if he were elected, he would move the embassy to Jerusalem, while Gore-Lieberman had a muddled position. Congress in 1995 passed legislation demanding just such a move, but allowed a president to opt out with a six month waiver for national security reasons. Clinton did so every 6 months, as has Bush.

But what about now? Well, none of the major candidates has taken the easy out of supporting the embassy's move. It's red meat for hard core pro-Israeli Jews, and could help any Democrat in New York or Florida, and certainly assist in fundraising. It's a ridiculously stupid policy proposition, since the moment it happens, riots would erupt in the West Bank and Gaza (if not elsewhere), and the peace process would be set back yet further. It would also make America the ONLY nation to have an embassy in Jerusalem. That's why Bush and Clinton didn't move the embassy (we do have two consulates in Jerusalem). I'm pretty surprised that none of the major Republicans or any of the Democrats has advocated it, particularly the second and third tier Democrats, for whom it would make immediate strategic sense. Even when speaking to a pro-Israel group, Biden didn't mention it.

But I don't expect this silence to go on much longer. And this time, this phony, symbolic issue could make it into the general election. If I were on the staff of any of these folks, in either party, I'd get an answer ready for the debates. But what should the answer be? The responsible answer is that moving the embassy would taint final status negotiations over Jerusalem, and unnecessarily enrage Palestinians and other Arabs at a tense time. Still, the political benefits for coming out for moving the embassy remain real, I think.

So, what should the Democrats say about the embassy, now and in the general?

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Comments

Democrats should hold to the position every American administration has taken on this issue, regardless of what the eventual Republican candidate says.

In fact, the eventual Republican candidate probably won't take the position Mayer is worried about. If he did, the Democratic candidate might lose a few votes and alienate a few contributors. Don't worry about it. One of the party's problems is that its candidates are seen, with considerable justice, as the obsequious servants of organized interest groups. The Jerusalem embassy has never been a make or break issue with Jewish voters in a national election, but vocal attacks by a few Israelicentric types attacking a Democratic candidate for not bending to their will might actually help, in a small way, with this particular image problem.

I think that is the right answer, Zathras, except that I think the Republicans WILL take that position, and I think the Democratic answer must be deft in preparation. It must not become anything that can be twisted into a perceived lack of support for Israel.

Well how much support is enough support, Jerry? No matter what position any party or candidate takes on Israeli-Palestinian issues, that position can be twisted into a perceived lack of support for Israel if it falls short of the needs of pro-Israel maximalists.

Oh, for Pete's sake. Maintaining the position held for over half a century by Presidents of the country to which Israel owes everything could be considered lack of support for Israel?

By voters who care about Israel and nothing else, maybe. But most of those voters -- there aren't that many of them -- live in states that any Democratic Presidential candidate will carry anyway. Of the other voters, mainly evangelical Christians, to whom Israel is deeply important, most are unwinnable for the Democratic candidate next year. Look, because there is a good chance that support for the Republican ticket could crater in 2008 it may be possible for a Democrat to pander his (or her) way to the White House, and that will certainly be the inclination of the candidates you've got. It isn't necessary to go to the extent of embracing the Jerusalem embassy issue, or being such a nervous Nellie about it.

Good responses. I'm not arguing for taking the position of moving the embassy. I'm arguing for getting ready rhetorically for not taking the position. And in general, having something to say of meaning on Israel-Palestine. For example, committing to a peace conference, with whoever is the elected leader of the Palestinians, Abu Mazen or whoever, within six months of election. That's just an idea, but something that is worth exploring.

But while I think the Dems have the advantage now, I don't think we should count on the Repubs cratering. Say Fred Thompson gets it, or some dark horse like Richard Lugar, and calls for immediate withdrawal from Iraq or some position on Iraq that situates him far from Bush. A lot can happen. Some nuthatch Green could enter, and stake out an Iraq position more radical than, say, Hillary, if she is the nominee.

http://www.jewishsightseeing.com/usa/campaign_2000/sd09-01jewish_voters.htm

the Republican Jewish Coalition cites a report in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz that "Al Gore has stated he would delay moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv until a final status agreement is forged between Israel and the Palestinians." "This is in direct conflict with the will of Congress which passed legislation mandating the move in 1995," the RJC [Republican Jewish Coalition] reports. "By contrast, Governor Bush has pledged that he would move the embassy to Jerusalem as soon as he was sworn in as President."

West Jerualem was part of Israel before 1967, and most of its residents are Jewish. Only those who believe that Israel should disappear would argue that this sliver of the city would not remain Israeli after any feasible settlement. Therefore, I do not understand why the United States and other countries should not be willing to place their embassies in West Jerusalem. If the Palestinans would riot (as the main post posits), that only shows they are totally unreconciled to the existence of Israel under any conditions. Maybe, the US moving its embassy to West Jerusalem would be a strong statement that the Arab hope of destroying Israel will not succeed.

Allan--I agree that Israel will always control West Jerusalem, and indeed, always should. But moving our embassy to Jerusalem would, as you are aware, not be interpreted as a statement on Israel's sovereign control over West Jerusalem, which is not in question except among those who most hate Israel, but as a statement over its control of all of Jerusalem. That is something that it would be foolish for the US to say at this point. Moreover, many might well interpret it as approval of Israel's policies of discriminatory race-based housing practices in both East and West Jerusalem. That we surely do not want to do. When a just peace arrives between Israel and the Palestinians (may the day come soon), it will probably be followed rather rapidly by the moving of many embassies to Israeli Jerusalem and Palestinian Jerusalem. As I see it, the Palestinian Jerusalem will involve a thin slice of East Jerusalem and a lot of Ramallah...

As I see it, the Palestinian Jerusalem will involve a thin slice of East Jerusalem and a lot of Ramallah.

Why do you see it that way? Is this a prediction or a preference?

Jerry -- Thank you for responding to my comment. But I continue to be puzzled. The primary reason you give for the US not moving its embassy to West Jerusalem is that it would be interpreted as a "statement" over Israel's control over other portions of the city. But why? Can't the US make it clear that it is just doing what is normally (always?) done -- putting our embassy in the city that the nation has made its capital. After all, Israel's Parliament and Supreme Court are in West Jerusalem.
Two added points. First, in the Camp David negotiations, Barak did show some flexibility about control of Jerusalem. So we do not have a situation where the Israeli position about control of all of Jerusalem is monolithic. Second, at Camp David Arafat rejected any historical connection between Judaism and Jerusalem. I think the hostility to recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital is connected with refusal by many Palestinians to recognize any valid historical claim by Jews to Jerusalem.

Allan--the fact that NO other nation, not one (the two latin american countries that had embassies in Jsalem removed 'em) has its embassy in Jerusalem is some evidence that it isn't just what is "normally" done, right? You do recognize that? Second, Jerusalem in toto was annexed by Israel, moreover, there has been a shameful landgrab even beyond the annexed territory over the last 35 years to create facts on the ground to prevent Palestinian claims. You can pretend that moving our embassy to W. Jerusalem would be nothing more than "normal". But the facts do not agree with you.

Dan--my thin slice prediction is not my preference, more of a prediction. Every time a deal doesn't get made, the Palestinians come back to find less on the table than the time they were there before. This has been true since the PLO was founded in 1964. The way of the gun has been a disaster for the Palestinians. If you want my preference, I'd prefer to see the Palestinians get more of Jerusalem. I just don't think that is likely. And I think the Palestinians should make a deal with israel, and stick to it, and get what statehood, peace, and prosperity that they can achieve, as soon as possible. What they have now is a disaster for themselves, and a bearable level of discontent for Israelis. Compromises have to be made by both sides, but I'm afraid that the next step will involve more Palestinian compromises. Not entirely, of course. The crazies in Hebron on the Jewish side will have to be forcibly removed, and some other settlements pulled back, and that may involve Jewish on Jewish violence. And some parts of Arab Jerusalem must be returned, particularly the population centers. And some of 67 Israel can be ceded to compensate for land kept in the West Bank. Barak's deal wasn't a bad one, and Arafat should have taken it. Corrupt authoritarian prevaricater that he was, he didn't. The Palestinians needed a Mandela. They got an Arafat. Tragically.

Every time a deal doesn't get made, the Palestinians come back to find less on the table than the time they were there before.

Yes, isn't it amazing? No matter how many times the Palestinians choose not to submit to the latest act of theft, they end up getting even more stolen from them. And those poor Palestinian simpletons seem perpetually surprised to learn that Israeli and American "liberals" have no serious intention of standing up for international law and the principle of the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by force, but instead believe that the appropriate way to redress criminal acts of theft is to have the robbers and the robbery victims sit down and negotiate over how much of the stolen property should be returned.

Barak's deal was another attempt by the boss of a gangster state, a state of which organized thievery is part of the very essence, to make an offer the Palestinians couldn't refuse. But the Palestinians are a bit dense. No matter how many times they wake up with a horse's head in their beds, they won't face reality.

It doesn't matter. There isn't going to be any deal. Israel has been fighting a war of gradual annexation and expansion since its inception - and before. It's going to win that war in the end, by extending its sovereignty over all of Palestine. Nobody with the will to stop them has the power to do so. And nobody with the power to stop them has the will to do so.

Dan--I think you're missing a key component of the story. When a deal is made, such as Oslo, was it upheld? Was terrorism given up as a tactic? (and yes, the settlements never stopped growing either, there was sin on both sides) For my part, I have always opposed the settlements, and I was always hoped for a day when Israel would return to the 67 borders, because that was what my interpretation of 242 was, the common sense, plain language one.

But Israel is not the mafia state you depict it to be. They have elements in their country who have been pursuing Greater Israel, and the best ally those elements have had have been the Palestinians who have advocated Israel's destruction, who have refused to recognize it, who have sent suicide bombers into civilian areas, and who have taught their children odious doctrines of racism and false history (Jews have no historical connection to Jerusalem, for example, mentioned above).

I believe that Israel is a fundamentally ethical nation that has done highly unethical things under great provocation and stress. Had the Palestinians chosen non-violent or even non-civilian targeted tactics, they would have done a lot better. I don't know if they would have acquired, through negotiations, all of East Jerusalem and the entirety of the West Bank. But I do know this--the first intifadah began with Israel in control of the territories entirely. When the process ended that began with that intifadah, the Palestinians were put in charge of significant parts of the West Bank and Gaza for the first time in modern history. The second intifadah, the terrorism intifadah, has not gone so well for the Palestinians, to put it mildly.

They need to put down the gun. Israel is the dominant military power in that region, certainly with regard to the Palestinians.

If they had been led by someone with ethics and high moral resolve, like Mandela, or Gandhi, or even an Adenauer...they would be on the way to peace and prosperity in a two state solution. Instead, by pursuing hopeless fantasies like Israel's complete destruction, Saddam as savior, or Right of Return to 67 Israel, they have helped those vicious elements on the Israeli side like Lieberman and the settlement movement to lead Israel to take vile actions like land confiscation, construction of a wall/barrier far over the Green Line, etc etc. They have also, incidentally, destroyed their own embryonic institutions and eviscerated their own emerging civil society, creating a vacuum in which the totalitarian theists of Hamas have become dominant, or worse, a total breakdown of all law and order. The way of the gun has been turned against their own society, and from what I read, Gaza is descending into anarchy. The flight of Christian Palestinians from the West Bank continues so that now they are even a smaller percentage than ever before. I think they are fleeing not only the violence and poverty, but also the emergence of an Islamicist rule.

Finally, I'm pretty pessimistic about the region, but I am not as pessimistic as your final conclusion. For Israel to take control of all of Palestine, as you suggest, would require ethnic cleansing on such a massive scale that I don't think, in the end, the Israeli public would tolerate it. And even if they would, I don't believe even the US would stand beside them if they did it. So cheer up. Your worst case scenario is not going to happen.

Rereading, my point on the first intifadah is not clear. My point was that it presented Israel, and it presented the world, with a picture much closer to the civil rights movement in this country. Teenagers taking on tanks with stones. People simply asking for the right to rule their own lives. Demanding an end to occupation. These were fundamentally just requests, and far more moral tactics, than what followed in the second intifadah. Israel ultimately had no choice but to respond favorably to the 1st intifadah.

Here's a mental exercise I favor. Imagine the American civil rights movement, only put Arafat, and not Martin Luther King, in charge. It would have been a disaster, a catastrophe. I don't know how one measures the comparative justness of causes, but I submit that the African American claim to freedom and equality was at least as strong, and arguably stronger, than the Palestinian cause. Let's call them equal, though. If MLK had chosen the way of the gun, the way advocated by Stokely Carmichael and others...where would African Americans be today in my country? There's a reason King is revered in this country that goes deeper than many realize. Had he not led his cause through non-violence, the outcome would have been much much much bloodier, much slower, and more in doubt. I honestly don't know where we would be on the race question today if you put an Arafat in charge (and I'm not claiming we are in happy happy land, of course, in regards to race)

White America was far more wrong in its treatment of blacks than Israel has ever been with regard to the Palestinians. Many perceived that blacks had a moral right to violence, and they were not wrong, in terms of ethics for us non-pacifists. But they were wrong in terms of strategy--wrong in terms of what was ultimately good for their people, and for all Americans, in the end.

Whatever problems you have with the deal offered by Barak, and I had some, too, taking it and then working peacefully for change would have been better for the Palestinians. Do you really dispute that?

Jerry, I don't know why you think that the Israeli public would not tolerate the kind of ethnic cleansing needed to control all of Palestine. They tolerated such ethnic cleansing in 1948, and have continued to tolerate it since 1967, with increasing readiness throughout the 90's and into this century. Even without a catastrophic regional war, a majority will continue to tolerate such ethnic cleansing as long as it occur by dribs and drabs, with a settlement here and a settlement there, and with occasional extentions and redirections of the wall. If a major war occurs, they will tolerate much more obvious and large-scale population transfers.

As for the US position, tell me which future president is going pull the plug on enthusiastic support for Israel, or fail to "stand beside them", simply on account of increased settlement activity. Clinton, Edwards or Obama? McCain or Romney? Please. Their teams are all busy right now composing some drivel with which to respond, just as you suggest, to whatever further manifestations of Israeli expansionism may arise, in order to guarantee that their campaign not fall victim to any "perceived lack of support for Israel". Their administrations will follow the same M.O.

I used to believe that the Greater Israel component of Israeli society was a minority - maybe 1/3 of the country that exercised a mysterious power over the rest. I now think that the expansionist camp is far greater, maybe as much 75% of the country. It consists of a minority who frankly affirm they favor expansion together with a larger group who feel compelled to dissemble, and make a show of wringing their hands and crying over the expansionist activity they passively endorse. There is no other way to account for the utter failure of the supposed anti-expansionist majority of the country to gain control of their county's policies and arrest the indefatigable progress of the settlement movement.

A country doesn't continue to expand its territory, in the face of so much violent opposition, by some kind of accident. People like Lieberman might be bolder than most, but they are only able to succeed because they live in a country populated by Lieberman's willing annexationists.

"Lieberman's willing annexationists" is lovely language warfare, don't you think, touching on Goldhagen's book so deftly. Bravo.
The degree to which the Israeli public KNEW about the acts of ethnic cleansing in 1948 is debatable. Moreover, that took place in the context of a war that Israel manifestly did not start. I am not aware of widespread ethnic cleansing in the aftermath of 67 or during it. I don't call illegal land theft "ethnic cleansing". It is such a horrific act, it should be reserved for its existential core meaning. Ethnic cleansing looks like Bosnia under Mladic's military, not a settlement illegally stealing Palestinian farmland, or illegally building a wall that cuts Palestinian families in two. Both of those latter acts are horrible, but they are not "ethnic cleansing" because the abused and robbed from Palestinian still lives there.

What it would take to reoccupy and annex the West Bank and Gaza would look like Bosnia. And yes, I think Obama would cut off funding to Israel if that happened. Israel's vital trade links to Europe would be severed, and it would truly become a pariah nation, without a friend in the world...

Unless, of course, the Palestinians set off a massive wave of missile attacks from the West Bank and Gaza that resulted in high levels of Israeli casualties. All bets would then be off. I'm not talking about Kassams, I'm talking about something else. If the Palestinians are insane enough to acquire and use the capability to exact vast civilian casualties through open acts of war...well. That would require Israel to use its military superiority to ensure its security, as any nation would. Two questions--

The same one as above--the one about King and Arafat---don't you think the Palestinians would have been MUCH better off choosing non-violence in general, and the Barak deal in specific? I really did want an answer.

Second, what steps could we take, now or in the near future, to bring about positive developments on either side? I don't see much hope for negotiations until a monopoly of force is established on the Palestinian side...

Jerry, I'm happy to reserve the term "ethnic cleansing" for more gruesome and manifestly barbarous acts that do not include mere illegal annexation through settlement and wall-building. But in that case, my point is just that gaining control of the West Bank will largely require only more of this illegal settlement activity. Other more dramatic acts directed at urban centers might take place under cover of warfare, when few Israelis will object. Such wars are depressingly predictable. But full Israeli sovereignty will not require moving all of the Palestinian population. It only requires reducing the area of Palestinian habitation to several portions of territory that are not contiguous and clearly not a viable ground for a future state, and then sustaining that situation for a while as the international community gets used to the notion that Palestinian statehood is no longer in the cards. At that point, all of the "reasonable" voices in the international community will begin to annouce that the Palestinian Palestine should consist mainly of Jordan, just as you have ventured that the Palestinian Jerusalem should be fashioned out of Ramallah.

Israelis have shown themselves quite willing to put up with a certain amount of resistance in the form of terrorism, year after year, in order to achieve the aim of conquest. Much of the task of subduing the Palestinians and fully conquering the land will be accomplished by unyielding pressure that, over time, will induce more and more Palestinians to emmigrate.

I agree that the Palestinians have failed to mount a successful resistance movement, and that their choice of tactics plays a major role in this failure. In each generation, there seem to be too many Palestinians who hold out the futile and fond hope of recovering what they have lost, rather than accept the fact that their only viable choices are between accepting the losses they have already incurred, or losing more. They do seem to have some emotional difficulty in embracing defeat. And in addition to damaging their cause with tactics that are inherently immoral, and violations of the international law of armed resistance, they have failed collectively to grasp what sorts of tactics sell on the world stage. Still it seems perverse to justify or tolerate Israeli expansion, as many do, by citing the failure of Palestinians to resist it more effectively or virtuously. The fact that a victim resists criminality either stupidly or with more criminality does not excuse the initial criminality.

Eventually, I imagine, after a few more decades of territorial losses and futility, Palestinains will get the message that the cause is truly lost, and at that point they will leave Palestine in increasing numbers. Perhaps in a few thousand years some Palestinian return movement will be launched, based on their remote ancestors' historical connections to the land.

Well, it is tough to criticize someone for being overly pessimistic about the Israel-Palestinian issue, but let me paint a somewhat brighter picture:
The gate to hell that Hamas has opened in the Gaza with a near total breakdown of law and order gets recognized by Palestinians all over. Moreover, Israel recognizes (they are already beginning to) that a total collapse of order in the territories, while allowing for even more land grabs, is ultimately going to result in living next door to Afghanistan circa 1994 and then circa 2000, neither of which is a good thing for any nation.
Forces within the Arab world who also don't want to live next to a seething Afghanistan (Jordan and Egypt, primarily, but the Saudis, also) become willing to take brave steps for peace.

The US, under a Democratic administration, reverses 8 years of flailing and stupidity, and engages.

Europe and Muslim nations around the world offer peacekeepers. What peace are they upholding? A modified Taba, in stages. While extremists in both sides may be willing to kill each other, they might hesitate to be the ones to kill Malays and Norwegians. Well, maybe. It's my dream, damn it.

And the world, led by the US, also gives enough money to the Palestinians so they haven't had it so good since 1993 at least, maybe better than ever.

And they give up right of return to 67 Israel.

And the wall returns mostly to 67 lines, with adjustments.

And settlements are uprooted mostly.

And terror stops, entirely, or almost entirely.

Shit, maybe you were right...


Well I hope you're right Jerry. It's no fun being so pessimistic

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