Social Network Analysis and War with Iran? Posted by Rosa Brooks

John Robb of Global Guerillas links to an interactive map designed by social networking expert Valdis Krebs. The map gives a visual display of the links and disconnections between the various states and non-state actors acive in the region (extremely useful for those of us who have trouble understanding things we can't picture!). As Robb notes, the social networking map "provides a visual representation of the open loop system" that may be "leading us to war" with Iran:

Here's a systems view of the escalating tensions between the US and Iran and why it will likely result in war. The current situation is open loop -- an open loop system is one where all participants are regularly adding inputs without any consideration of the output/outcome. Feedback loops, like direct diplomatic contact or the use of international bodies/mediators to adjudicate disputes, that could typically serve to mitigate further deterioration have been intentionally turned off by those that want this conflict to occur. As are result, inputs from allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia (both fearful of growing Iranian power), impetus from guerrillas/militias forcing sectarian conflict, fears over ongoing nuclear development, mutual military preparation for conflict, and a need to assign blame for escalating counter-insurgency failures continue to drive it forward. At some point in the not too distant future, unless the feedback loops are reinstated, the system will inevitably produce an outcome that will force a war.

Robb notes that some analysts believe the Karbala incident (in which gunmen posing as US troops captured and then executed several real US troops) bears the hallmark of Iran's al Qods force, and worries that if this turns out to be the case, such incidents will set of the kind of "escalating tit for tat" that triggered Israel's war with Lebanon.

I have previously predicted that Israel and/or the US will end up taking military action against Iran (in fact, I predicted that it would happen by last September! I'm delighted to have been wrong about that, at least, and hope I'm wrong about all of this).  I continue to fear that we are heading into a military confrontation. The Administration's anti-Iran rhetoric has only escalated, despite increasing calls-- from within as well as without the Republican party-- for direct negotiations on both nuclear development and Iraq. We recently sent a second carrier group to the Persian Gulf, jut to remind Iran "that we haven't taken any options off the table," as Cheney put it.

Meanwhile, the Iranians are doing their bit to escalate as well: however intended, yesterday's statements by Iran's ambassador to Iraq seem certain to cause alarm both in Washington and in other parts of the Middle East.

It's beginning to feel a lot like early 2003, in the build up to the Iraq War.

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

Meanwhile, the Iranians are doing their bit to escalate as well: however intended, yesterday's statements by Iran's ambassador to Iraq seem certain to cause alarm both in Washington and in other parts of the Middle East.

Escalate? We should in fact be delighted that the Iranians are planning on stepping up to provide security and reconstruction assistance to its neighbor. This will relieve some of that burden from the American public. The Saudis may do the same thing for their Sunni friends in Anbar province and the Sunni triangle, if they can ever get the latter to desist in their violent efforts to topple the Iraqi government and re-establish Sunni rule over Iraq.

The only thing that is missing here is a pro-active US effort to fascilitate the coordination of reconstruction efforts, and make sure that this Iranian assistance, Saudi assistance, and assistance from other regional states are part of a cooperative regional framework for stabilization and reconstruction. The US refusal to talk to the Iranians, and bring them into a regional security discussion, is rather insanely counterproductive - and is ultimately going to cost us more American lives.

I hardly see how the sorts of steps outlined by the Iranian ambassador, which constitute normal and healthy cross-border relations, constitute "meddling". Does the US expect Iraq to follow a foreign policy of total isolation from it's neighbors? I suppose there are a few diabolical western Machiavels who want Iran and Iraq to be permanent and hostile enemies - just like the good old days of the phantasmagorically murderous Iran-Iraq war. But it looks like the governments involved have other plans, and are uncooperative geared up to establish peaceful and cooperative relations.

Oh my goodness - an Iranian bank branch in Iraq! What next?! Before you know it, people will actually start investing in the future of Iraq!

[Don Bacon]

According to propaganda-stoked polls Iran is the major threat to US security, so there will be no accommodation with our (and Israel's) major enemy. Iran has oil and gas, supports Hezbollah (a democratic force in the middle east) and is a major supplier to China, which is the next major threat according to the warmongers. If Bush doesn't whack Iran than Hillary will, if she gets the chance, to please her Zionist funders.

The US objective, as in Palestine, has never been to stabilize but to profit from everlasting turmoil. And profiting they are, in full consideration of the gains to be made. It may not seem like it, but the elite know what they're doing--making tons of money. Call it the war dividend.

[kalonline Geons]

My friends and I like to buy kal geons, because the kal gold is very useful to upgrade equipment. Only your equipment becomes better, then you can win this game. In kal online geons, you can buy everything you want in this game. Yesterday is my birthday, so my friends bought me some kal online gold as gifts. I am so happy.

[cheap silkroad gold]

he usually buy some silkroad online gold to start his game

[gw gold]

I hope i can get GuildWars Gold in low price.
i buy Guild Wars Gold for you.

[wow gold]

Once I played wow, I did not know how to get strong, someone told me that you must have wow gold. He gave me some cheap wow gold.

[cheap mesos]

you must borrow
cheap mesos from friends, or you buy
maplestory mesos.

[Gucci handbags]

you must borrow

[fake Bvlgari Necklaces]

you must borrow

[luxury watches]

I am so with you,rolex watch
luxury watch

[injection moulding]

Labels printed by China printing is very good quality and good prices.
Plastic products made by plastic injection molding services with low costs and supeior quality
Shoring scaffolding for construction is a very useful tool.

[ghghg]

CHEAP rs gold
MY lotro gold
CHEAPEST aion gold

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[chanel handbags]

Chanel Handbags are woman’s dream come true.

Chanel, a fashion name that has become synonymous with femininity since 100 years, is on the must-have list of every fashion-conscious woman.? And we bring these must-have Chanel Handbags at never before discounts, just for you.

It is only when you come across an Chanel New Arrivals, do you realize the power of her words.? Chanel handbags are crafted not just to be trendy, but trend-setting.? Hardly has lived a celebrity who has not been seen carrying a Chanel handbag under her arm; such has the influence of Chanel handbags as a fashion statement.

Chanel handbags have been so popular in the elite classes of the society, that their pricing is usually prohibitive for everyone else.? Discount Chanel handbags are really difficult to come across, but today should be your lucky day.? We bring you a superb unbeatable range of Chanel Flap bags, all at fantastic discounts.? With us, you have an incredible chance to buy your favorite Chanel handbags at rock bottom prices!

Chanel Handbags have always been at the forefront of luxury and style.? The Chanel classic quilted leather handbags and its reinventions have ruled fashion since forever.? Chanel handbags have remained extremely popular as they continue to merge evolving modern trends with the class and simplicity of its original avatar.

An Chanel 2008 Collection and Chanel 2009 Collection single handedly enhances the look you are carrying.? The reason you would buy a Chanel handbag is own a bag that mingles with your charm and intensifies it with its inherent simplicity.? If you have owned an authentic Chanel handbag before, you know what we are talking about.? If you are one of the unlucky people who haven’t yet gotten a chance to own an Chanel Cambon, now is your chance to shop for an authentic Chanel handbag and discover its ability to transform your look completely.

Buy Chanel handbags with us, and get fabulous discounts which you will never get at your favorite store.? We offer cheap authentic Chanel handbags and they are all up for grabs!

[chanel flap]

When you hear Chanel HandBags being mentioned anywhere, the concept of high fashion comes to mind. When you attend a social function, you will realize that most women are carrying Chanel cambon designed by Chanel. These accessories can also be carried to the office. The Chanel carriers and purses are not just mere fashion accessories. They can come in handy when you do not have space to put your personal things.

One of the reasons why these accessories are so common has to do with their Chanel Coco Cabas. The carriers are designed in a way that they exude style everywhere you go. The cost of the accessories will defer depending on the designs. You should always go for the design that matches your tastes and preferences, not what every other woman is carrying on the streets.

Chanel 2.55 double flap bag are available in an assortment of sizes and colors. When you go shopping for the accessories, it is important to think about what you want the purse or carrier for. For instance, if you want something to put your personal stuff in when going to an informal party, then you will want to buy a Chanel 2008 Collection and Chanel 2009 Collection. Black, white, brown and purple are the colors you should get if you want an evening accessory.

Since Chanel is one of the biggest names in the fashion industry, you can find their accessories in many fashion stores anywhere in the world.

[chanel handbags]

At first sight, I was fascinated at the motif design covered on Chanel cambon , which add some femininity, elegance, and exquisite to its all design. The bronze-colored chain and iconic CC lock on the front looks casual and classic, making this bag embodied with a distinctive restoring flavor, and Chanel 2009 Collection shaded metalized effect also give a hint of vogue and modernity to its totality. We can not miss its fantastic leather, the lizard, snake and crocodile leather are widely used. Furthermore,Chanel wallet also features crazy rock style and hand-crafted material.

[wholesale wigs]

every interesting to read.I enjoyed well while reading.I will recommend my friends to read this one for sure.

[Louis Vuitton handbags]

Both sides of the symmetrical lines, wantonly flaunt a perfect Louis Vuitton handbagsline, in the right case, the border, from 9 o'clock to 12 o'clock position to develop a unique design to show the whole concept of asymmetry, resulting in visual surprise, crown, located in the the right to beautiful, 4 o'clock position of the bright red jujube board. Black dial with white silkLouis Vuitton handbags screen printing, second hand with red paint, resulting in the formation of brand image is more out of color.

[wholesale cheap lingerie]

Everything is very open and very clear explanation of issues. was truly information. Your website is very useful. Thanks for sharing.

[gucci sneakers]

Produced pioneering spirit is very difficult.

[furniture stores]

spirit is very difficult indeed.

[اليوتيوب]

the Iranians are doing their bit to escalate as well

[Tiffany bracelet]

Great site. This could probably have the refactoring tag added t it.

[best pheromone products]

Such another informative blog. Thanks for sharing.

[Blake]

4 o'clock position of the bright red jujube board. Black dial with white silkLouis Vuitton handbags screen printing, second hand with red paint, resulting in the formation of brand image is more out of color.

[compare auto insurance]

Lula as one of them (and indeed, he did grow up quite poor). He is also seen as a moderate by many who once perceived him as a rightist.

[Thrush Pictures]

Lula as one of them (and indeed, he did grow up quite poor). He is also seen as a moderate by many who once perceived him as a rightist.

[Phones]

I did not receive one of my orders and they sent me again by their own cost. The pills are as original or as other generic.

[strumenti musicali]

certainly they do have sales. But brick and mortar stores also have a little thing called overhead which means they usually can't compete with the internet.

[Clorox wipes coupons]

article and useful in gathering the information of criticism in Israel and its pleasure to read the article and hope continue by sharing some

[Atkins Diet]

I have to admit that I have never heard about this information I have noticed many new facts for me. Thanks a lot for sharing this useful and attractive information and I will be waiting for other interesting posts from you in the nearest future.keep it up

[Inspirational Life Quotes]

you have no sense of irony whatsoever. What Rosa said not to do, is precisely what you're doing. You weaselly little bad example -- you call me antisemitic just for saying there is a zionist lobby! It's hard to imagine watering

[uk furniture store]

But brick and mortar stores also have a little thing called overhead which means they usually can't compete with the internet.

[payday loans online]

Your page is so fantastic! You sure do know how to keep your audience entertained. Im so glad that I took the time to look at this blog, because let me tell you. Not a lot of people know how to balance knowledge of a subject and content.

[payday loans online]

Im so glad that I took the time to look at this blog, because let me tell you. Not a lot of people know how to balance knowledge of a subject and content.

[strumenti musicali]

thanks protected that there are values on what we are sex to fact our subscribers involved. Trait them vexed is one representation we staleness

[payday loans online]

I really believe it's the US that is determinining how much crisis the world is in over Iran and will be in if Iran acquires a certain level of nuclear technology.

[payday loans]

fantastic! You sure do know how to keep your audience entertained. Im so glad that I took the time to look at this blog, because let me tell you. Not a lot of people know how to balance

[auto loans]

Thanks I’m impressed, I have to say. Really rarely must i encounter a blog that’s equally educative and entertaining, and ok , i’ll tell you, you have hit the nail to the head. Your idea is actually outstanding

[Lysol coupons]

Who woulda thunk social networking would take over as much as it has?

[Locum]

sense of irony whatsoever. What Rosa said not to do, is precisely what you're doing. You weaselly little bad example -- you call me antisemitic just for saying there is a zionist lobby

[Online Payday Loans]

Everything is very open and very clear explanation of issues. was truly information. Your website is very useful. Thanks for sharing.

[e liquid]

I figure that one learns something new everyday. Mrs Right learned her lesson! Nice, informative website by the way.

[no nonsense muscle building workouts]

open communication between the leaders of nations, dictators or not, is a bare essential for peaceful diplomacy. If you want to know if Ahmadinejad is crazy

[hdmi to component cable]

Thanks admit that I have never heard about this information I have noticed many new facts for me. Thanks a lot for sharing this useful and attractive information and I will be waiting for other interesting posts

[Fredericks of Hollywood Coupons]

Social networking reaches new heights.

[Bare Minerals Coupons]

Neocons are hoping for war with Iran.

[Canada furniture]

Unlike some other neo-cons, I've always sensed a genuine empathy for Arabs on the part of Wolfowitz, an empathy which clearly drove

[Cheap Car Insurance]

Thanks for making such a cool post which is really very well written will be referring a lot of friends about this. Keep bogging.

[Mic Cable]

I havent any word to appreciate this post.....Really i am impressed from this post....the person who create this post it was a great human..thanks for shared this with us.

[backpack]

I don't like Iran!!!| backpack

[export import canada]

You sure do know how to keep your audience entertained. Im so glad that I took the time to look at this blog, because let me tell you. Not a lot of people

[casino]

Thank you for sharing This knowledge.Excellently written article, if only all bloggers offered the same level of content as you, the internet would be a much better place. Please keep it up!

[www.casinoenligne777.com]

Street names drugs usually have a story behind them; the names may describe the formulation, the chemical name or the appearance of the drug, sometimes the street name will describe the user. we should try to stay away from all these drugs

[car insurance]

To be honest, this is kind of why I like Condi/Dr. Rice, because unlike some others in the Bush administration, she actually seems to genuinely believe in this fascinating (if somewhat destructive) view of international relations.

[car loans]

I took the time to look at this blog, because let me tell you. Not a lot of people know how to balance knowledge of a subject and content.

[cheapest car insurance]

It's not some parlor debate. But the same people who were wrong keep demanding we do things their way. That would be suicidal.

[florida home insurance]

We supported the Haitian military and dictators for two hundred years, and then in 1990 Aristide came along and we got rid of him.

[medical air transport]

I did not receive one of my orders and they sent me again by their own cost. The pills are as original or as other generic.

[Auto Loans]

every interesting to read.I enjoyed well while reading.I will recommend my friends to read this one for sure.

[Online Poker]

Unlike some other neo-cons, I've always sensed a genuine empathy for Arabs on the part of Wolfowitz, an empathy which clearly drove

[Usama khan]

Unlike some other neo-cons, I've always sensed a genuine empathy for Arabs on the part of Wolfowitz, an empathy which clearly drove

[garden rattan furniture]

I've always sensed a genuine empathy for Arabs on the part of Wolfowitz, an empathy which clearly drove

[negozio strumenti musicali]

Everything is very open and very clear explanation of issues. was truly information. Your website is very useful. Thanks for sharing.

[payday loan]

Some great information there,keep up the good work.

[personal loans]

Much appreciated, very valuable information.

[rattan patio furniture]

I took the time to look at this blog, because let me tell you. Not a lot of people know how to balance knowledge of a subject and content.

[cash loans]

Thanks Laurenti for drawing attention to my observations regarding the mixed messages given out by the U.S. during the Human Rights Council negotiations. I did not intend to place all the responsibility for this on Ambassador Bolton, but only to suggest

[smokeless cigarettes]

The cost of the accessories will defer depending on the designs. You should always go for the design that matches your tastes and preferences, not what every other woman

[Web Design Mchenry Il]

Wonderful article, thanks for putting this together! This is obviously one great post. Thanks for the valuable information and insights you have so provided here.

[content writing]

Lula as one of them (and indeed, he did grow up quite poor). He is also seen as a moderate by many who once perceived him as a rightist.

[christian dating]

But brick and mortar stores also have a little thing called overhead which means they usually can't compete with the internet.

[organic foods]

Great site. This could probably have the refactoring tag added t it.

[HDMI Matrix Switchers]

every interesting to read.I enjoyed well while reading.I will recommend my friends to read this one for sure

[hotel booking]

you have no sense of irony whatsoever. What Rosa said not to do, is precisely what you're doing. You weaselly little bad example -- you call me antisemitic just for saying there is a zionist lobby! It's hard to imagine watering

[Potenzmittel online]

You organize the article very well and your writing ability is really wonderful.As an English learner, this post is a little too difficult for me to understand. I hope one day I could write such good articles

[best hcg drops]

The meat on a person’s dinner plate should be no larger than the palm of their hand. Another good rule to follow is to make sure the vegetable portion is larger than the meat portion on the dinner plate.

[HCG diet reviews]

you have no sense of irony whatsoever. What Rosa said not to do, is precisely what you're doing. You weaselly little bad example -- you call me antisemitic just for saying there is a zionist lobby! It's hard to imagine watering

[CPR Certification]

I really believe it's the US that is determinining how much crisis the world is in over Iran and will be in if Iran acquires a certain level of nuclear technology.

[strumenti musicali]

Everything is very open and very clear explanation of issues. was truly information. Your website is very useful. Thanks for sharing.

[vendita chitarre]

I found this site through search engine and I have been reading along all the blogs posted. They are very well written indeed. Thanks

[Diaper Coupons Printable]

every interesting to read.I enjoyed well while reading.I will recommend my friends to read this one for sure.

[hi fi]

thanks for putting this together! This is obviously one great post. Thanks for the valuable information and insights you have so provided

[Barclays Credit Card]

The power of social networks on display again.

[Black Mold Removal]

I did not receive one of my orders and they sent me again by their own cost. The pills are as original or as other generic

[willie mays jersey]

You recognize how to make your website above a rant approximately a challenge.

[football tips]

De site is in het Engels, maar vrij makkelijk te begrijpen. Bubbl werkt niet met lijnen, maar met blokjes. Het principe is hetzelfde

[Communication Skills]

Thank you for sharing This knowledge.Excellently written article, if only all bloggers offered the same level of content as you, the internet would be a much better place. Please keep it up!

[Communication Skills]

Thank you for sharing This knowledge.Excellently written article, if only all bloggers offered the same level of content as you, the internet would be a much better place. Please keep it up!

[heat pump reviews]

Everything is very open and very clear explanation of issues. was truly information. Your website is very useful. Thanks for sharing.

[christian psychic readers]

article and useful in gathering the information of criticism in Israel and its pleasure to read the article and hope continue by sharing some....

[How to Get Rid of Bed Bugs]

In hindsight with all the recent uprisings with Twitter and Facebook this article seems pretty prophetic

[bad credit car loans]

I took the time to look at this blog, because let me tell you. Not a lot of people know how to balance knowledge of a subject and content.

[bad credit car loans]

I took the time to look at this blog, because let me tell you. Not a lot of people know how to balance knowledge of a subject and content.

[glass table]

Your website is very useful. Thanks for sharing.

[dining tables]

Everything is very open and very clear explanation of issues

[dining table]

great blog, very useful

[oak dining table]

great article

[Panasonic ES8109S]

Lula as one of them (and indeed, he did grow up quite poor). He is also seen as a moderate by many who once perceived him as a rightist.

[iphone 5]

You sure do know how to keep your audience entertained. Im so glad that I took the time to look at this blog, because let me tell you. Not a lot of people