Prediction Posted by Michael Signer

So I'm going to go on the record and predict the President will lose the fight for this new policy in Iraq.  I think constitutionally he might well argue that even if Congress de-funds the escalation in the supplemental appropriation, he could take steps to fulfill what he sees as his role as commander-in-chief.  But that's beside the point.  I think he's going to lose, for two critical reasons: 

(1)  The country actually has absorbed the lessons of Vietnam, and not in a first-time-as-tragedy, second-time-as-farce way.  We learned, and are unwilling to allow a President adrift in the fog of war to proceed unhampered.

(2)  The President has never had an intuitive grasp on either public opinion or on policy that actually makes a salutary difference in people's lives.  He's extremely good at manipulating the levers of elite control over politics and power -- like the money he raised in his primary campaign or the way he exploited the terror alerts before the 2004 election -- but he's never displayed the finely-tuned sense for public opinion of, say, a Clinton.  And so he doesn't really understand just how disastrous for his policy the public's discomfort and rage is -- and why so many Republican Senators in vulnerable states are already opposing him.

In support of all of this is a chilling Salon piece by Sidney Blumenthal, which reports that the neocon hawks have engineered this perverse strategy with the same hidebound machinations that led to the war in the first place.  The hawks, led by Vice President Cheney, browbeated and sidestepped Secretary Rice and others, like Brent Scowcroft, and played to the President's Freudian resentment of James Baker and the subtleties and remonstrations of the Iraq Study Group, and generated today's proposed policy.  Here are a couple of key grafs:

Just as they used the Iraq Study Group as their instrument, Cheney galvanized his neoconservative allies inside and outside the administration to counter it. In order to have their own proposal they put Jack Keane, a former Army vice chief of staff and longtime neocon fellow traveler, in touch with Frederick Kagan, an analyst at the neocon American Enterprise Institute, who urged a massive "surge" of troops into Iraq. Keane's presence lent a patina of military credibility. Encouraged by Cheney's office, Kagan and Keane and a team of neocons at AEI whipped up a PowerPoint presentation, and one week after the ISG report release, on Dec. 11, they were ushered into Bush's presence.

The president had become enraged at the presumption of the Baker-Hamilton Commission even before its members gave him their report. "Although the president was publicly polite," the Washington Post reported, "few of the key Baker-Hamilton recommendations appealed to the administration, which intensified its own deliberations over a new 'way forward' in Iraq. How to look distinctive from the study group became a recurring theme. As described by participants in the administration review, some staff members on the National Security Council became enamored of the idea of sending more troops to Iraq in part because it was not a key feature of Baker-Hamilton."

I'd be more worried if it weren't so inane.  Well, I'm still very worried, and I think we have to choose between multiple very bad options (of which I still think the Biden/Gelb plan would make the most sense, just as long as we don't expect it will achieve wonderful results).  But, honestly, I think these guys are going to lose this battle, because the mismatch between their reality and ours is becoming clear not just to the people, but to the Congress.

Comments

[Dan Kervick]

Suppose next week the administration begins launching air assaults on alleged supply depots, training camps, etc. in Iran. What position will you take?

[Don Bacon]

I never fail to be amused by appraisals of Bush`s "intuitive grasp" and other characterizations of Bush`s intelligence and planning ability by Signer, Kervick and others. We`re writing here about a man-child who was born with a siver spoon in his mouth, who has been given every oportunity that wealth can offer and yet has failed at everything he`s ever done, capped by his miserable performance as president. He has even described himself as a low achiever (but not low enough). He is a merely a self-made Texas good old boy who has succeeded hansomely at enriching his friends from the public larder, with a lot of help from people who should know better. Besides beig able to step up to a chalkline and read a pepared speech he has no observed interest in examiing issues or deciding them intelligently, and we certainly can`t expect him to have an "intuitive grasp" of anything. Please, here at DA where we each do have some modicum of intelligence, if we do anything here, let`s recognize Bush for what he is.

[Dan Kervick]

I never fail to be amused by appraisals of Bush`s "intuitive grasp" and other characterizations of Bush`s intelligence and planning ability by Signer, Kervick and others.

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[J&D]

At first I thought our DECIDER'S plan was doomed to failure; however thinking outside of "the box", I now believe it may very well succeed, since billions of dollars are unaccounted for by our cabal these moneys can go into "the new strategy": One hundred thousand or so mercenaries will be dressed up as Iraqi soldiers and police and imbedded with them and kill as many as they wish if orders are not obeyed. These professional killers may very well do the job! So then who is going to impeach the president and his vice president what with so much wisdom in such a time of fear? Once again the Dems will run for cover and the world comes closer to the abyss that awaits it. J & D somewhere among the Litchfield Hill in a simpler place in time ....

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