Moving the Debate beyond Troop Levels Posted by Jordan Tama

The New York Times reports today that the Bush administration is leaning toward a short-term increase of 17-20,000 troops in Iraq, achieved mainly by extending the deployments of two Marine regiments. That would be a reasonable decision, though those troops might do more good in Afghanistan. But I'm worried that critical issues other than troop levels are getting short shrift in the administration's deliberations and the public debate on Iraq.

By itself, a relatively small increase in U.S. troop levels (20,000 is a small number, given that we already have 134,000 troops in Iraq) won't make a large difference in Iraq. Don't get me wrong: I don't think we should increase (or decrease) troop levels more dramatically than that, for reasons I described in an earlier post.

But I do think we should be focusing more on other vital issues, namely: how to achieve political reconciliation among the many armed factions in Iraq; how to prod the Iraqi government to take the difficult steps necessary to weaken the most dangerous militias and insurgents; and how to induce neighboring countries to play a more constructive role in Iraq.

These challenges are mostly political and diplomatic. More troops won't get us very far in addressing them. Yet the Times indicates that the bulk of administration discussions this week have centered on security issues and the option of sending more troops to Baghdad.

In 2003, a larger troop presence might have stabilized the country. Today, there's no chance that 20,000 more troops will stop the sectarian violence that's been spiraling out of control for the past year. How exactly are these troops going to prevent death squads from murdering scores of individuals per day in their homes and on the streets? Our troop presence is necessary to prevent the violence from escalating into a total bloodbath, but political deals among Iraq's factions are necessary to end the rampant ethnic killing.

President Bush should focus his administration's energy on finding ways to help broker those political deals.

Comments

[yave begnet]

"President Bush should focus his administration's energy on finding ways to help broker those political deals." Ok, so in other words, he should find a way to make peace in Iraq. Great, we are in agreement. But how does he do this? What deals should he make? With whom? What leverage do we have and how can we bring it to achieve a peaceful solution to the conflict? There are a lot of blanks to fill in here. "President Bush should end global poverty." That would be nice, too.

Since the vast majority of Iraqis want US troops out of the country, it's likely that most Iraqis don't share your view that our "troop presence is necessary to prevent the violence from escalating into a total bloodbath." In fact, if Iraqis view US troops as hindering rather than facilitating peace, the presence of troops may hinder rather than facilitate Bush's ability to broker any political solution. Also, US credibility in Iraq is so damaged at this point I doubt we have the ability to broker much of anything--plus, remember who's in charge here. I don't think Bush could broker his way out of a paper bag, much less the complex, volatile situation he's faced with in Iraq.

And how exactly would increasing troop levels by 20,000 be a reasonable decision? Frankly I'm baffled by this assertion made without any supporting evidence.

[Judah]

Gotta agree with yave begnet. If "there's no chance that 20,000 more troops will stop the sectarian violence that's been spiraling out of control for the past year," how could adding said troops be reasonable?

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