Reading Jim Baker's tea leaves Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Trying to anticipate what the "Baker Commission" will come out with as recommendations for Iraq is one of Washington's better current parlor games, should you need a break from betting on the midterms.

Two weeks ago, I was hearing that the Commissioners were "hopelessly" split.  At least they're in touch with the mood of the country.

Today, though, The Note points out a Texas Monthly interview in which Baker apparently says that withdrawal would be a terrible thing.  That would seem to suggest that they won't be coming out with a plan that provides the Administration with a fig leaf for changing course; or, on the other hand, perhaps it suggests exactly that.

(He also declines to give a ringing endorsement to Rumsfeld, for those following THAT parlor game.)

Comments

[Don Bacon]

Baker's correct--withdrawal from Iraq would be a terrible thing for his Texas oil crowd, despite the facts that most Americans and Iraqis think that it would be a good thing, in fact a no-brainer when you consider that our expensive (in lives and dollars) occupation is merely designed to shore up a fundamentalist Islamic government allied to Iran. The tea leaves are drenched with blood--for our oil? Maybe not. A funny thing happened on the way to the refinery. It now turns out that China, as under Hussein, has first dibs on Iraqi oil! Ungrateful sots. Baker, the "Middle east expert," may not even know it, but no matter, he is a Bushie through and through. Stay the course. Use taxpayer dollars (other peoples' money) and impressed troops (other people) to salvage the investment. Can't lose.

[Cal]

Well, we now have the considered opinion of our top general in Iraq:

...Gen. Abizaid, the Centcom commander, held to the position that the war was now about the Iraqis. They had to win it now. The U.S. military had done all it could. It was critical, he argued, that they lower the American troop presence. It was still the face of an occupation, with American forces patrolling, kicking down doors and looking at the Iraqi women, which infuriated the Iraqi men. "We've got to get the [expletive] out," he said.

A cut-and-runner! You never know where you'll find them.

What does it say about our society that the generals are perhaps the most dovish sect among our elites?

We thus arrive at this singular consequence, that, of all armies, those most ardently desirous of war are democratic armies, and of all nations, those most fond of peace are democratic nations; and what makes these facts still more extraordinary is that these contrary effects are produced at the same time by the principle of equality.

-- Alexis de Tocqueville

[Don Bacon]

Not dovish--realsitic. The policy is on fire so head for the exits. The Pentagon just published a Woodward/Rumsfeld interview from last July where Rummy claims he was a Jay Garner fan--invade and leave--but was blind-sided by the White House and Jerry Bremer. Hah. To add a new metaphor, it's kind of fun to watch the rats scramble from the sinking ship. A disastrous military occupation? Not my idea, they're all saying. Cut-and-runners? Or, under the new law, unlawful enemy combatants (because "if you're not with us you're against us") and therefore subject to detention in some dank prison cell without hope of trial?

[seyid]

There are certain things in life related to smoking that simply cannot :)
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