North Korean Nukes: Three Fallacies (with bonus discussion question) Posted by Heather Hurlburt

1.    "North Korea is not our problem."  This is the tack neo-realists Anatol Lieven and John Hulsman take in today’s LA Times.  They posit that North Korea’s nukes are a “regional problem” that we should insist that China, Japan and others take the lead on.  The problem? What appears to be the North's big goal?  A missile that can hit… the continental US.  CSIS’s Antony Cordesman notes the uncertainty around what kind of weapon this test represents.  In any case, I’ve noticed several South Korean commentators pushing the contrary vision that North Korean nukes are in fact not a Korean problem, but a US problem, because proliferation to terrorists would never target Asia. Both can't be right, and if the South Koreans don't think it's their problem, I'd bet on them.

2.  “The regional powers have all the leverage.” This is the Administration’s argument for why we need six-party talks and, conversely, why there’s no need for the US to talk to Pyongyang. See above.  Who are the North Koreans trying to impress, ultimately?  Not Beijing, which is already plenty impressed by the specter of millions of staving Koreans crossing the border in the event of regime breakdown.  Now, if we could take our hyper-power selves out of the equation, and make Pyongyang get down to the business of living with its neighbors, sure, that would be progress.  But we could do that most efficiently by talking with them, just to take away the excuse that we won’t talk with them.  Moreover, if the regional powers aren’t interested in using their leverage on behalf of “our” issues, we’d better look for plan B.

3.  “Kim Jong Il is crazy.”  Yep, if you dropped him here in suburban Michigan, people would be suggesting he get some help for that narcissistic personality.  But that doesn’t make him irrational, or impossible to deter, maneuver or even negotiate with.  Remember, not only did we talk to Stalin, we even strategized enough to win a war with him.  And he was a homicidal maniac (the technical term) on a scale that Kim, fortunately, can only contemplate.  His regime does have, over the past few years, a tiresomely sane record of doing, or attempting, most of the crazy things it says it’s going to do.

One unpleasant truth:

“We are present at the unraveling.” David Broder nicely summarizes Graham Allison’s argument that the non-proliferation system that kept the number of nuclear weapons states down and kept us safe for more than 40 years is mortally wounded.  Progressives have –understandably – wanted to talk about saving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty for the past few years.  But now I’m afraid it’s time for bigger thinking about how the regime could be re-invented for a new century, and new balance of power, and a new set of threats.

Discussion question:

Jon Wolfsthal, an accomplished non-proliferation expert and a good buddy of mine, puts together the above factors and concludes that “The time for negotiations is over.  Now it’s about containment and deterrence.”  He proposes that we worry less about proliferation to terrorists and more about making sure Pyongyang understands how declared nuclear powers must behave to avoid miscalculation, etc.  He makes the interesting suggestion that Washington send an envoy to Pyongyang, not to negotiate anything, but to say ok, you’re in the club now, here are the rules.

I’m not sure this is entirely right – especially if the test was a failure, it seems to me that it’s still worth seeing what it would take to freeze or roll back the program.  But I give Jon credit for coming up with a first step that would communicate to Pyongyang the respect they so desperately seem to want from us and to the rest of the world the toughness that the threat of nuclear proliferation deserves.

Comments

[Jon Wolfsthal]

Heather:

Thanks for the shout out and considering me a friend. ;-) I am curious that you thought my recommendation conveys respect to the DPRK. I guess on one level it does, but it is mainly designed to reinforce to them that the world of the big boys they have tried for so long to join may not be all they hoped it was. I guess in saying that they are playing with the big boys, there is a level of acceptance, but I am willing to risk that to avoid a major miscalculation on the part of North Korea.

Keep up the great work.

Jon

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Well, yes, let's educate NK on how declared nuclear powers must behave. Let's see:
First declare who your enemies are, then invade and brutally occupy one of them, then threaten another with nuclear attack while refusing to talk with the third, while at the same time offering nuclear capability to a non-NPT signatory--no, that's not right. Don't do as I do .....

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