Abbas' Gamble Posted by Suzanne Nossel

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is making a diligent attempt to personally rewrite the history of the next phase of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  Just 10 days ago Abbas was being dismissed as a figurehead who, by failing to rein in corruption and sustain a following among hardline Palestinian youths, had squandered the chance to lead the Fatah party toward permanent status talks with Israel. 

The five months since Hamas was elected have been a tense period for the Palestinian people, with thousands of hard-working government employees including teachers going without pay and major fuel shortages.  Israelis have cut off the flow of tax monies that they collect on behalf of the Palestinians, and the US and many other international donors are withholding relief monies previously supplied.

Abbas deserves a lot of credit for a smart scheme that just might cut through the impending crisis.   He has seized upon an 18-point plan (here's a loose English translation by the Jerusalem Post) developed by a group of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.  The package advocates a Palestinian state in the pre-1967 borders, reestablishes the PLO as Israel's negotiating partner, recognizes Israel's borders, and renounces violence within Israel proper.  The mastermind behind it is Marwan Barghouti, a charismatic and wildly popular Fatah leader whom I've written about before.   Here's an interview Barghouti gave on the document.

Tomorrow is the deadline Abbas set for Hamas and other factions to declare definitely whether or not they will support the proposal.  Thus far Islamic Jihad has said they're prepared to support it, but Hamas has refused.  If they decline, Abbas has pledged - and apparently has the authority - to call a national referendum on the proposal within 6 weeks.  Pitting the prospect of bankruptcy and international isolation against a proposal that some of their most radical leaders have already bought into, chances for a yes vote would appear strong.

The prisoners proposal is hardly a blueprint for a final status agreement.  It contains some positive provisions dealing with free elections and banning Palestinian security forces from participating in faction violence.  But it also calls for a right of return for all Palestinians who once lived within what is now Israel proper, a proviso that unrealizable in the context of a peaceful settlement.  It references the creation of a united front to continue all methods of resistence within the territories themselves.

But recognizing what it takes to unite the Palestinian people behind a shift away from the recalcitrance of Hamas, the document has potential.   The language on the right of return, for example, is translated by the Jerusalem Post as follows: "Doubling efforts to help the refugees and defend their rights and the formation of a popular body to emphasize the right of return and the need to stick to it."  This comes off as more an effort to placate than a pledge of particular results

Here's what strikes me as significant about all this:

- Abbas is more of a player than most would have thought after Fatah's stinging election defeat.  If he pulls this off, Israel may once again conclude it has a negotiating partner.  At the very least, it took guts to come forward with this gambit and stick a tight deadline on Hamas.   Israel recognizes this, and Olmert has just said he plans to meet with Abbas to discuss a possible resumption of negotiations. 

- The Palestinian people may be coming to the realization, more quickly than many thought, that Hamas' unyielding head-in-the-sand posture is both unworkable and unbearable.  If so, the Hamas victory could turn out to be less of a setback than was feared.

- Barghouti remains the one to watch.  Not since Nelson Mandela has a political prisoner guided events so directly from prison.  The Israelis have clearly decided its in their interest to let him do so.   It will be fascinating to see if, when and how he emerges on center stage.

- There may yet be an alternative to the potential viable, yet treacherous road of unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank.