What Iraqis Are Thinking Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Last week’s release of a World Public Opinion/PIPA poll of Iraqis was overshadowed by the State of the Union and associated commentary.  Most of the coverage there was focused on the 47 percent of Iraqis who approved of attacks on US forces – though only 1 percent approved of attacks on civilians.  But the poll, which had good and bad news for all ideological tendencies here in the US, merits a longer look.  Here are my top 5 underreported results:

1. Increase in positive attitudes about the future.  (67 percent overall, compared to 49 percent in an International Republican Institute poll last fall; for ethnic breakdown, though, see below.)
2. Belief, across ethnic lines, that Iraqi institutions would function better with troops gone. (67 percent say day-to-day security would improve, 67 percent say public services would be more available, and 73 percent say factions would cooperate better.)

3. Split on when the US should go that mirrors the split in US public opinion.  (overall, 35 percent want a withdrawal in 6 months, 35 percent in two years, and 29 percent “only as the security situation improves.”  Again, look below for ethnic breakout.)

4. Zero progress in getting Sunnis to feel more optimistic and included.  (More than 90 percent say the elections and the new government are not legitimate; 83 percent want the US out within 6 months.  93 percent say the country is going in the wrong direction.)  At the same time, Ken Pollack looked at t he data and for him it underlined another problem – that we are not paying enough attention to the Shiites, who responded with high degrees of hostility to questions about US non-military assistance. 
5. Across-the-board interest, including from Sunnis, in internationalization of the foreign presence in Iraq, both military and civilian.  (Even 57 percent of Sunnis said Iraqwould need help from “foreign military forces” for a year or more.)

What conclusions should we draw?

I've got three.

Well, if I were the Bush Administration, I'd be waving these numbers all over Turtle Bay, Brussels and every Arab capital trying to get the UN, Arab League, EU and NATO to step up and take on big chunks of the civilian reconstruction that we are busily "wrapping up."  If I were feeling especially confident, I might try to put somebody up to sponsoring a big international conference that didn't look and feel American, to try a different tack to bring Sunnis on board.

And speaking of Sunnis, seems as if we might need to declare the elections-as-opener-to-Sunnis strategy a qualified failure and start thinking about what else might help.

Lastly, both Ken Pollack and Shibley Telhami commented on how opaque the Bush Administration's intentions are to most Iraqis, even as many are willing to say that getting rid of Saddam was worth it, foreign troops are needed for some period of time, and reconstruction assistance would be welcome.  If you read all the way through the transcript of the poll's presentation at Brookings, you will find former Congressman Steve Solarz proposing that President Bush travel to Iraq and announce there that the US has no intention of leaving permanent bases in Iraq.  Darn good idea.  I'd add to that a commitment to make troop drawdowns as transparent to Iraqi civilians (the insurgents will know anyway) as they are to the American civilians at whom they are aimed.  Then Iraqis can be encouraged to start holding their own authorities responsible for failures and successes alike.

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