The North Korea Crisis: Still Simmering Posted by Jeffrey Stacey

While the current American foreign policy focus is split between the vagaries in Iraq and duplicitous protestations of nuclear innocence in Iran, the crisis in North Korea simmers on.  Why is the U.S. devoting so much time to an Iran that is ten years away from producing nuclear weapons compared with a rocket-proliferating regime that is now actively producing nuclear bombs?

The U.S. can hardly afford frittering away more time, as the window of opportunity for defusing this crisis is beginning to close—while the North may have already built as many as eight nuclear bombs, in December it announced that it was reopening nuclear plants at Yongbyon and Taechon.  This move came on the heels of Pyongyang’s announcement that as a result of new U.S. financial sanctions it is pulling out of the stalled 6-party talks.

In November the talks achieved an apparent breakthrough, when the North in principle agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in return for security guarantees and economic and fuel aid.  However, the very next day the North claimed it had not agreed to the timetable that the U.S. and China et al. had insisted on.  Since then, not only have no new talks been scheduled, but diplomatic tensions have risen, and all the while Pyongyang continues to pursue its nuclear ambitions.

Indeed, in light of the North’s recent history of nationalistic intransigence, even its ongoing economic desperation may not provide the necessary catalyst.  What is needed instead is two-fold:  1) clearer understanding of recent history by U.S. officials  2) consensus inside the U.S. government to go for a comprehensive agreement.

The Bush team knows making North Korea the next Iraq is not an option. Even airstrikes aimed at the North’s nuclear capabilities are unadvisable, for the North maintains nearly 1 million soldiers along the demilitarized zone (DMZ) and several thousand of artillery weapons that could easily devastate vast sections of the South Korean capital and kill up to 20,000 American soldiers. 

Despite its scorched-earth rhetoric and unstable behavior, North Korea actually wants very little in return for giving up its nukes.  Its demands consist of only three things:  security guarantees / political relations, economic aid, and—quite literally—respect.  If the North is truly willing to do a diplomatic deal, this would cost the U.S. very little (as long as compliance could be assured).  The North is in dire economic straits, with its people suffering from widespread malnourishment, as evidenced by its recent move toward capitalism.

Holding up a deal thus far has not been President Bush’s long insistence that he won’t allow a nuclear North Korea; rather, ironically enough it is his insistence he won’t give in to blackmail.  Lost on almost everyone involved is how the U.S. – not North Korea – was the first to break the two sides’ 1994 nuclear deal.  In that agreement, the North traded away its nuclear program for four things:  fuel oil shipments, an end to sanctions, political relations, and the construction of two light water reactors that cannot be used to develop weapons. 

However, the Clinton administration’s slow-paced work on the reactors was not started until 1999, and sanctions were not ended until 2000.  In addition, fuel shipments from the U.S. were not always regular, and full diplomatic and political relations with the North were never established. 

North Korea began violating the agreement by starting its uranium enrichment process in 1997 –  after the U.S. had already violated its end of the deal.  In fact, the North did so specifically in reaction to the U.S. foot dragging.  In June 1998, the North offered again to end its missile proliferation activities, but got rebuffed.  It reacted that August by launching a long range Taepodong missile over Japanese territory.  Likewise, after its inclusion in Bush’s “Axis of Evil” speech, the North took a decisive step in its uranium enrichment activities by obtaining gas centrifuges. Moreover, after Secretary of State Rice’s provocative visit to the DMZ last year the North reacted by trumpeting a declaration that it already is a nuclear power and laying the groundwork for a nuclear test. 

Granted, it seems the U.S. has begun to alter its approach, an early payoff being the North’s recent return to the negotiating table.  However, being willing to deal with North Korean diplomats in group formats is necessary but not sufficient.  This missing piece of the puzzle is the simplest inducement to provide:  bilateral dealings that amount to the respect Kim Jong Il craves.  Deal with the North directly and the U.S. will get the verifications procedures and timetable it desires.

The hold up appears to lie inside the U.S. administration.  Hawks still holding out hope for a military option or regime implosion are in fact holding up a comprehensive package delivered in bilateral fashion. Along with a clearer understanding of North Korea’s actual quite rational behavior, a nuclear-free Korean peninsula and America’s national security depend on it.

Comments

[Keith, Indy]

Seems to me if North Korea has enough money and technology to produce nuclear weapons, it should have enough to provide energy and food to it's own people.

Why should we aid a closed, totalitarian regime?

Why should we show that regime any respect?

[bob]

North or South, these are Coreans you are talking about!! Have you seen the latest about the doc who falsified all those stem cells?? Your premise is that Kim Jong Il is not bluffing about nukes. The North can not feed themselves b/c they cant grow rice, a staple in in asia. If you cant grow rice, how does one manufacture a bomb?? Therefore, the nukes are a lie just like that corean doctor's cloned stem cells. On the other hand, persians dont lie and they will use nukes on israel and american interests!!

[J Thomas]

Bob, it's plain you've never spent a lot of time among persians.

And you ask how can they make nukes if they can't grow rice? Sheesh. You might as well ask how we can make nukes when we can't grow coffee.

About north korea, the situation has simplified. We are their enemy. So either they surrender and agree to whatever we want, or they achieve enough of a threat that they don't have to surrender.

We aren't ready to fight a ground war with north korea since they have a whole lot of nerve gas and a lot of troops, and we're already pinned down in iraq. So maybe we'll come up with some threat that can make them surrender and give us their top leaders for war crimes trials, or else we will not. And if we don't they'll get nukes. And then they'll negotiate for their minimal needs. If we starve them out, why shouldn't they use their nukes in response?

[Robichaud]

Excellent post, Jeffrey. But is it really fair to say the US broke the 1994 agreement? There were certainly transgressions from both sides well before the 1997 breakdown. In any case, I hope you'll keep the spotlight on North Korea a bit.

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