Can Parliamentary Elections be Both Fun and Important ? (The Opposition Gears up For November 9th) Posted by Shadi Hamid

In previous posts, I’ve focused on the external dimension of this month’s parliamentary elections in Egypt, primarily the failure of US policymakers to exert substantial pressure on the Mubarak regime in recent months. Nevertheless, these elections will be conducted in a considerably more open and competitive atmosphere than in previous years. This is party due to an increasingly emboldened (although still fractious) opposition, which rightfully recognizes these elections as the most crucial political event in recent memory. Where the September Presidential elections were  largely a well-orchestrated charade with a predetermined outcome (the only excitement was whether Mubarak would win with 77.5% or 88.5% of the vote), the parliamentary elections, which begin on Wednesday, are sure to be full of surprises.

I tend to be very skeptical about the Egyptian opposition only because they never miss and opportunity to miss an opportunity. They seem congenitally unable to form anything resembling a unified front. This is, to some extent, still true today although there are positive signs that the opposition might finally be burying the hatchet.

The Unified National Front for Change (UNFC) is an interesting amalgam of secular and Islamist parties. In theory, it includes nearly the whole opposition, including the Muslim Brotherhood, the Wafd (center-right), and Tagammu (left) parties. The idea behind the coalition was to present a unified electoral list instead of dividing up the votes between the parties. When the rather impressive coalition of 11 parties and groups was announced in October, it generated a lot of buzz in Cairo’s political circles. Some of the anticipation, however, died down when the Muslim Brotherhood, although still officially part of the UNFC, decided to run its own candidates under its own campaign and platform. Not to mention the fact that al-Ghad party was not even invited to participate in the coalition due to the longstanding feuds between its leader, Ayman Nour, and Wafd leader Noman Gomaa. So, the opposition remains fractious but less so than previous years, which I suppose is a sign of progress, at least by Egyptian standards.

The Brotherhood remains the group to watch. Seemingly more confident than ever, they are fielding 150 candidates, three times more than they did in 2000. They have certainly benefited from the relatively open atmosphere. Where before the 2000 elections, nearly 6000 Brothers were detained (and in 1995, many including leading moderate Esam el-Erian were tried in military courts), this time around, there have been no arrests. Its candidates campaign openly despite the fact that the group is still technically banned. Their ubiquitous slogan “Islam is the Solution” reportedly plastered all over Egypt, albeit with a nice subtitle – “Together for Reform” to emphasize their democratic proclivities (you’d think that with Bush’s unfortunate use of “democracy” and “war” in the same sentences would turn people off, but, no, everyone in Egypt today - Islamists, socialists, communists, dictators - wants to be a democrat). Interestingly, their slogan has been “branded.” Progress indeed.

 There are whole host of fun subplots in the election. Secularist opposition leader Ayman Nour, who was arrested last January and released thanks to pressure from Condi Rice, is the victim of an appropriately ironic government smear campaign. The ruling party has plastered posters all over his home district of Bab al Sha’riya, accusing him of being a “US agent.” This of course despite the fact that the Egyptian government receives $2 billion of aid each year from the US, and despite the fact that President-for-life Hosni Mubarak and President Bush are still apparently buddies. In another interesting development, there’s the one female candidate who is running on the Muslim Brotherhood ticket. She happens to be a professor. More importantly, she is running for political office (something which will presumably divert her attention from the “household”). Yet, she still tells the press, without the slightest hint of irony, that asking for sexual equality "goes against nature." "Would women be happy if men were to stay home to look after the children while they worked outside?" she asks rhetorically.

Then there, of course, are the usual rumors that 1 million dead people, despite being dead, will somehow find a way to vote for the ruling party.

Yep, it’s going to be fun.

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