What Does John Bolton Want and Other Questions about UN Reform Posted by David Shorr

Thanks Suzanne for the gracious introduction. I am indeed an optimist, though anybody with their eyes open at this point has to be worried (see below). For anyone tracking my own movements, I am at the office in Iowa this week in between trips to New York and will head to the UN over the weekend. Meanwhile, I encourage readers to check out the Stanley Foundation's web pages on UN reform; we have been tracking these issues ever since Kofi Annan launched the current push for reform in late 2003.

Please indulge me a thought or two on Katrina before I dive in. I'm sure many who have worked on international humanitarian action have been wondering "what would Fred Cuny do?"  Cuny was the late genius of emergency response who was killed in Chechnya in 1995. (I did not know him, but count a number of his associates as mentors.) One of Cuny's first rules was to get local people themselves involved in rebuilding. So here's an idea that actually comes from my wife (a classical musician) -- Home Depot should be setting up classes in basic carpentry and construction for the evacuees in Houston or Baton Rouge. If some of those displaced were to acquire skills for which the reconstruction effort will create a high demand for a long time, this could only improve the longer term outlook for their families.

Now to my main question, what is John Bolton up to, and how does it affect prospects for meaningful reform at the United Nations? [Go here for my not entirely optimistic article in The Globalist.] Bolton is being portrayed as the unilateralist fox in the multilateral henhouse across the media, including here on DA by resident UN expert Suzanne. Judging by appearances, Bolton showed up for the final phase of negotiations before next week's summit determined to keep them from reaching an agreement.

Two things about appearances. First, they can be deceiving. John Bolton can hardly afford for these talks to break down. It won't serve his interests to have his bosses show up for a summit with a big dark cloud over it. That would only highlight his inability to successfully do business with his international counterparts. It would also give lie to the Administration's stated commitment to a strengthened UN.

There is even evidence that Bolton is rolling up his sleeves for these negotiations. From the time he arrived, Ambassador Bolton has been on a charm offensive (did I just use the words charm and Bolton in the same sentence?), which has impressed many of his colleagues. Hopefully, Bolton's famous doggedness will work to everyone's advantage. Here are some more words never associated with John Bolton -- disengaged, passive, complacent.

Something else about perceptions, though -- they matter in politics, and the administration walked right into this one. The legitimate critique of the US position is that it is an extremely long list of demands. American negotiators are probably prepared to yield on many of the less important issues, but when? The time is past due for the administration to distinguish between the things they can't live with from the merely irritating. Mark Goldberg of The American Prospect, who is also blogging daily on this process, raised a very good question: do they even know where their bottom line is?

From what I understand, US positions are all put through an interagency process, so there may be too many Washington cooks preparing the soup served in New York. If so, we need the chef to mix up something with a few key priorities. When the State Department's number three official, Under Secretary Nicholas Burns, recently briefed NGO representatives, he chafed at all the discussion of "negotiating tactics." But with the effectiveness and credibility of the United Nations on the line, outsiders are right to worry that an unwieldy, maximalist American agenda will bog down the entire process.

Because there is another problem with all the focus on Bolton and the US position: it is providing cover for a group of countries that are being wilfully obstructionist. Algeria, Cuba, Egypt, India, Iran, Pakistan and Venezuela have all been engaged not in open debate on the merits, but in full-blown assault on the main elements of the reform package -- a new Human Rights Council to replace the discredited Human Rights Commission, strong statements on terrorism and response to genocide, management reform measures. As the summit draws near, some of the action needs to move from the conference rooms of New York to the personal intervention of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, something I've been told she is prepared to do. I nominate Washington's friends like India, Egypt, and Pakistan for such attention.

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