The Long Arm of Beijing - Felt in Harare Posted by Suzanne Nossel

Things in Zimbabwe have gone from very bad to a lot worse, and almost no one is talking about what's happening or one of the forces behind the Mugabe regime's endurance:  China.   Our last check-in on events in Harare was around April Fool's Day.  But Mugabe's success in shutting down the opposition and winning himself another term was no joke.

Since then his appalling policies have gotten much worse.  The despot has borrowed a page from South Africa's apartheid government and started razing squatter camps and digging up urban gardens as a way to punish and disperse his opponents, many of whom lived in city shantytowns.  Meanwhile the country is facing massive shortages of food and fuel, its economy is in ruins, its fields are fallow, and its currency nearly worthless.

Here, on a site maintained by Mugabe opponents, is an interesting analysis of China's role in propping up the Harare regime:

A couple of excerpts:

Quietly, without fanfare, China has been moving into Africa. Africa is the one continent which still has relatively untapped reserves, particularly of fossil fuels and minerals. Her main targets have been Sudan, Nigeria, and Angola . . .What could China want in Zimbabwe? We do not have oil, our population is small compared to those of larger African countries. Our location is not particularly strategic for an outsider. What the Chinese want is raw materials and opportunities for investment.

ZANU PF has doubtless observed how China has been able to supply the Sudanese government with military equipment used against their own people and at the same time frustrate any United Nations action against Sudan for the atrocities in Darfur . . . The Chinese government also has an interest in political alliances that will promote China's policies world-wide. They want supporting votes in international bodies that will protect them from scrutiny over their human rights abuses, their non-observance of international labour standards, not to mention violations of democratic principles and civil rights. A state such as Zimbabwe can provide that support.

Recently we have seen the use of the Chinese jets, the army trucks and riot gear in the war on the urban poor. The use of slogans for campaigns such as "Driving out the Rubbish" are reminiscent of Chinese campaigns during the Cultural Revolution.

The analysis confirms the theme of Joshua Kurlantzick's piece in this week's New Republic, picked up by Brad Plumer at Mojo.  Kurlantzick tracks China's arrogation of "soft power" - economic, political and diplomatic influence throughout the world, particularly in Latin America and Africa.

On the quick, a bunch of implications relating to some of the debates ongoing here:

- Going back to our Truman debates, though I agree that the notion of hegemony is distasteful, this kind of thing underscores for me the importance of ensuring that U.S. influence around the world doesn't wane - China's choice of friends, based on self-interested criteria, may help keep tyrants in power; 

- In weighing U.S. influence at the UN and the potential for reform of the organization, China is a major counterweight, and almost always enjoys the allegiance of the world body's controlling bloc of developing world countries.   Our single-minded focus on the war on terror to the exclusion of priorities uppermost in the developing world has only heightened this problem.

- All this ties in to the idea that, while its at a slow boil, we are in a battle of ideas not just with extremists, but also with China's version of globalization - a concept built on economic interests only, with no concern for democracy or human rights.  One of the gravest weaknesses of the Bush Administration's foreign policy is that it has allowed China to build popularity and influence while our own ties and stature around the world have atrophied.  This is doubly egregious in light of that fact that our appeal - the promise of freedom, our culture - should inherently be much more powerful than China's.  But our messenger's approach and tactics have badly undercut the message, and right now China's delivering where we aren't.

Comments

[doc]

...insightful, timely post, Suzanne.

i'll take us to a probable end point – unless we pay close attention to china’s globalization moves, the better part of this century will be lived under the chinese aegis. as you pointed out, the current administration’s idea of foreign policy is monomaniacal, a rough and tumble game of power chess. the chinese, meanwhile, and are playing wei ch’i: the US is blithely playing tenuki while the chinees are playing hane...

[doc]

...make that 'chinese are playing hane...'

[Jim M]

Don't forget Sudan! China's big there too.

[Greg Priddy]

China's "going out" policy with regard to natural resources is going to be a subject of major interest in coming years, both for economic and political/strategic reasons.

The deal that the state-owned oil company Sinopec signed with Iran last November for development of the Yadavaran oil field and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), reportedly valued at $70 billion over the life of the contract, has some obvious and rather significant political implications vis-a-vis the nuclear issue and China's vote in the Security Council.

There's also the question of the effect of such import dependency on China's international behavior -- is it a constraint, since it would make them reluctant to challenge the world's largest naval power, or will it lead to conflict as they seek to protect their investments with overseas bases and power-projection capabilities? I lean toward the former interpretation, in the near-term at least, but it's a very significant question over the longer-term.

[Robert McDougall]

this kind of thing underscores for me the importance of ensuring that U.S. influence around the world doesn't wane - China's choice of friends, based on self-interested criteria, may help keep tyrants in power

This makes China different from the U.S. (or any other great power) how?

[rosignol]

This makes China different from the U.S. (or any other great power) how?

The end of the cold war gave the US an opportunity to be much more selective about who it was friends with. Unfortunately, that time appears to be coming to an end, and the days of tolerating 'our bastards' may be coming back.

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