Non-Pro Non-Policy Posted by Derek Chollet

The past few days have seen a confluence of disturbing events on what I believe, hands-down, is the greatest security threat to the America: the spread of WMD.

Let’s begin with the conference in New York that begins this week to review the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).  Last convened 5 years ago, this month-long arms control conclave will be the first opportunity to formally discuss the NPT since 9/11 – and since we made new discoveries about the limits of the current non-pro regime, from Iran and North Korea to Libya and the A.Q. Khan network.

One would think that given all this – and given the obvious flaws in the NPT that allow states to acquire the technologies needed to produce nuclear weapons capabilities legally– the United States would be heading into this important meeting with an ambitious, bold agenda to reform and strengthen the NPT for the 21st century.

Nope. 

Instead, it appears that the Administration wants to use the conference to defend its failing policies toward North Korea and Iran.  Who is leading the U.S. delegation to these talks?  Stephen Rademaker, the State Department’s senior non-proliferation official and, more importantly, one of John Bolton’s protégés and closest allies (and apparently one of the only friends he had in the Powell State Department).

If one is wondering why some month-long arms control conference might seem important, consider the stunning admission last week by Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lowell Jacoby that North Korea has the capability not just to produce a nuclear weapon (that we already knew), but to put that weapon atop a missile and launch it.  Hillary Clinton deserves credit for flushing this out of Jacoby during a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Remember folks, it was North Korea’s missile test in August 1998 that sent the Clinton Administration scrambling to design a missile defense system – an effort that the Bush Administration has pumped with steroids for the past five years, without much to show for it.   The concern then was that North Korea might someday be able to arm such missiles with nuclear warheads – well, at least now according to DIA, that day has arrived.

We might have consoled ourselves that North Korea’s missile program had for some reason gone dormant, but unfortunately Pyongyang’s missile test last Sunday was an in-your-face reminder that the threat is real.  And added to all this, there is growing concern – and apparently mounting evidence -- that North Korea will actually test a nuclear weapon sometime soon. 

So what’s the Bush team doing about this?  Well, the usual: a lot of talk but not much action.  Last week it sent Chris Hill – the senior State Department hand for Asia – to make the rounds in Asia, but he did not have any luck making lemonade out of the lemon of a policy he carried.  When asked for an “optimistic closing line” for the trip, Hill responded with characteristic candor: “give me a week and I will come up with one.”

The problem is not that our diplomats are weenies – Chris Hill cut his teeth dealing with Slobodan Milosevic.  The problem is that the Administration at the highest levels is either too internally divided – or it has no idea altogether – what our policy should be.  For an Administration that is usually criticized for not doing enough with other countries, in the case of North Korea, it is leaving everything up to others.

Now I’m not about to suggest that there is some magically easy answer to the North Korea problem.  It’s true that North Korea might not ever agree a deal that will require it to give up its weapons verifiably, but how will we know if we refuse to test them?  Even trying and failing would move the ball forward by giving us even more leverage to work with others to increase the pressure on Pyongyang.  For a more detailed set of ideas of how the U.S. could approach this problem, check out chapter 6 of this recent Carnegie Endowment study.

It’s bad enough that the Bush team lacks either the will or the way to deal with specific WMD threats like North Korea -- its broader approach to non-proliferation is uninspired and unimaginative.  And who is going to pay the price?  Us.   

To sum up, I can’t put it any better than one of the true leaders of non-proliferation efforts, former Georgia Senator (and now head of the indispensable organization, the Nuclear Threat Initiative), Sam Nunn: “With so much at stake, our citizens have every right to ask: ‘Are we doing all we can to prevent a nuclear attack?’  My emphatic answer is ‘no, we are not.’”

Comments

[J Thomas]

Nonproliferation is dead. We just haven't gotten the word yet.

We can wish that the US government had done something different back when something different might have kept it going longer. Crying over spilled milk? Crying over spilled plutonium? Whatever you call it, it does no good now.

Now we have to figure out how to live in a world where nonproliferation is dead.

[praktike]

Derek, are you aware of the controversy over the draft Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations?

[praktike]

John Hamre had an OpEd about this in today's Post that was pretty interesting:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/01/AR2005050100833.html

[manoppello]

"Remember folks, it was North Korea’s missile test in August 1998 that sent the Clinton Administration scrambling to design a missile defense system – an effort that the Bush Administration has pumped with steroids for the past five years, without much to show for it. The concern then was that North Korea might someday be able to arm such missiles with nuclear warheads – well, at least now according to DIA, that day has arrived."

Sorry to disappoint you Derek, but the rosy picture and glossy brochures the defense contractors like to hand out to congress critters and administration officials while eating barbecued dolphin on yachts cannot hide the truth. And the truth is that the Physics does not yet exist that would allow us to build a reliable missile defense system using non-nuclear warheads, or exotic technologies like particle beam weapons. The Navy's LEAP project which likely held the most promise in this area is still fairly far from becoming an active component in their arsenal.

Someone will have to make the politically charged choice to use nuclear weapons to stop incoming enemy nuclear weapons. And even then...

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