The US, Israel and the 'Democratic Dilemma' Posted by Shadi Hamid

The pro-Palestinian protest I mentioned in my last post ended up taking place. Eventually, close to 150 people gathered on the steps in front of the Doctors’ Syndicate. This (Egypt) is a police state of course, so the protestors were not allowed to spill onto the street or even the sidewalk. Security forces easily outnumbered the protestors and boxed them into a rather small area. There were also two rows of hired thugs across the street (usually a grilled chicken lunch and 10 LE will do the trick) to provide additional “security." I asked one of them how much he got paid. He flashed a big smile. He certainly seemed like he was in a good mood.

The protestors were mostly of a Leftist/liberal persuasion, with a good number of Kefaya supporters. Americans have a tendency to think that leftists and liberals are more “moderate” on Arab-Israeli affairs than their Islamist counterparts. This is not necessarily the case. The crowd chanted in support of “resistance,” bombing Tel Aviv, and other such things. They expressed strong support for Hamas and Hezbollah. For example: "Nasrallah [our] loved one, hit hit Tel Aviv” (it rhymes in Arabic). Or “martyr martyr, Haifa and Yaffa are the land of our country.” Two Israeli flags were burned. And the American ambassador was requested to leave Cairo. There were, to be sure, no Sadat posters in the crowd.

The protestors kept their focus on the current crisis, but every now and then they would break out into pro-democracy chants. It was clear that they saw a clear link between the lack of Arab democracy and the deterioration of the situation in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. For them, President Hosni Mubarak is a dictator. America supports him and, in exchange, he acquiesces on US regional interests. He is dependent on the good graces of those above him – an agent, a lackey, so on and so forth.

On the other hand, so the argument goes, Arab democracies – boasting a popular mandate and popular legitimacy – would be more willing to stand up to Israel and stick up for the Palestinians (i.e. the vast majority of Arabs are hostile toward Israel, so a democratically-elected government would adopt a more “assertive” foreign policy, reflecting the will of said majority). This line of argumentation is not entirely new, but the last couple days, I’ve noticed Egyptians using it more often. A Muslim Brotherhood leader who I spoke to earlier today said that if Arab governments were independent, democratic, and “strong,” Israel would not have attacked Lebanon, because of the deterrent effect of more equally matched adversaries.

This is a variation on the traditional realist argument of balancing. According to this logic, democratically-elected governments, other considerations aside, would be interested in developing nuclear capabilities, for both electoral gain (“Arab street cred”) and the deterrent effect that such weapons would purportedly wield. (I don’t find this argument convincing, because international realities and American pressure would likely keep militaristic tendencies in check). In any case, based on what I've seen so far, I suspect that the events of the past week will lead to the further entanglement of the Palestinian question and the question of democracy. It is already happening. And I'm not so sure this is a good thing.

All of this captures quite well the complex nature of America’s “democratic dilemma” in the region. Democratically-elected Arab regimes will not, as some alarmists suggest, wage war on Israel (Arab armies are an absolute joke and will be for the foreseeable future). They will, however, be more anti-Israel than the current dictatorships and will be less supportive of the peace process (or at least whatever is left of it). This is, of course, why realists such as Gregory Gause are skeptical of democracy promotion efforts in the Middle East. And it is one of the reasons why US policymakers have traditionally been quite ambivalent about supporting democracy in the region. This is also partly why many in the policymaking community, in recent months, have decided that democracy promotion is simply not worth it. For now, let me just say that how America deals with this challenge will determine our success in this most troubled of regions. Until then, the region will remain an intolerable powder keg, exploding every couple of years, just as it is doing now. The status quo – an unfortunate product of 50 years of Scrowcroftian statecraft and 5 years of Bush administration policy – is simply untenable. The democratic alternative is better but it, too, is fraught with the very difficulties alluded to above, which is why we’ve got to bunker down and come up with some answers, however tentative they might be.

Comments

[Cal]

On the other hand, so the argument goes, Arab democracies – boasting a popular mandate and popular legitimacy – would be more willing to stand up to Israel and stick up for the Palestinians (i.e. the vast majority of Arabs are hostile toward Israel, so a democratically-elected government would adopt a more “assertive” foreign policy, reflecting the will of said majority).

This isn't even debatable. The only thing the Iraqi factions in parliament can agree on right now is their support for Hezbollah.

Before our policymakers try to solve this democracy dilemma, I think they should first ask themselves if they can even be objective about what's going on in the region. Before this crisis, for example, Suzanne was telling us that Israel's unilateral disengagement from the Palestinians somehow won't truly be unilateral; and that Sharon's/Olmert's plan to disengage was the best chance for peace -- instead of the dead-end it's proven to be.

IOW, she seems incapable of even imagining the Arab point of view. But whether you agree with that view or not, no policy can work without some understanding of it. We're doomed to fail until our leaders -- both Democrats and Republicans -- stop seeing things as they want them to be.

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