The Questions Not Being Asked on Libya Posted by Michael Cohen

My friend and blogging mate Shadi Hamid has been passionately beating the drum in support of US military intervention in Libya for the past several weeks - and in the end I hope that his view about the efficacy of intervention ends up being correct and my skepticism is proven wrong.

Having said I think the argument that he utilizes below justifying military intervention gets the US strategic equation decidedly backward: 

For realists, I would love to hear how doing nothing in Libya was going to help U.S. security interests.

I don't actually consider myself a realist (ish), but I'll take a crack at this. The question that needs to be asked is not how will doing nothing further US interests; the question is how will doing something further US interests. 

The argument that 'doing something' will improve our "plummeting credibility" in the Arab world is both not a rationale for acting; it's not even in the national interest of the United States. In general, I'm sort of amazed that progressives - after Vietnam, after Iraq and after Afghanistan - would be using the argument that we need to send US troops in harm's way to preserve US credibility. After all, wars should be fought for national interests, not national image.

Indeed I'm having hard time finding a single reasonable national security argument in Shadi's post below for intervention in Libya.

More troubling is Shadi's argument that "Doing nothing in Libya would also have set a dangerous precedent: that Arab (or any other) leaders could slaughter their own people with impunity." Well I suppose, but by acting we are setting another precedent - that by doing something in Libya we are practically on the hook if another Arab leader starts slaughtering his people. If Assad starts massacring Syrian or the Saudi leadership starts killing pro-democracy protesters is the United States undermining the cause of freedom and liberty in the Arab world by doing nothing?

Of course there are a whole other set of "what if" questions that remain unanswered? What if a NFZ and airstrikes don't work in stopping Gaddafi? Do we then send in ground troops? What if a foreign pilot is shot down - do we send in search and rescue teams?

What if the war ends up in stalemate do we accept a status quo or do we send troops to Tripoli to liberate the entire country (Shadi seems to think we should)? What if the rebels are successful in overthrowing Gaddafi and begin massacring those loyal to Gaddafi? Would we have to respond to this violence as well? And to this point who exactly are the rebels that we are no going to war on behalf of?

What if our military intervention creates a power vacuum in Libya leading to political instability and violence? What is our responsibility to clean up the mess i.e. the Pottery Barn rule?

Now maybe these are questions we can answer later and perhaps they pale in comparison to doing nothing. And having asked all these provocative questions there is certainly the possibility that while the US is supportive of intervention it doesn't actually intend to play a starring role leaving the dirty work to the Europeans and the Arabs. My sense is if these countries want to take the lead more power to them.  After all, for these folks there actually is an argument that what happens in Libya impacts their national security interests.

And as a strident internationalist the fact that the UNSC has signed off on this gives me a bit less pause. Certainly one could make the argument, and quite rightfully so, that this situation falls under the concept of R2P - and obviously the humanitarian factor must be considered as well. In other words, it's sort of a close call on what to do. It's not a slam dunk like Iraq.

But what I generally find so shocking about this whole situation is that no one seems to be answering the hard questions about what comes next. None of the pundits calling for intervention; no one in the Obama Administration and certainly no one in Congress, which hasn't even been consulted, it seems, on this. The United States could within the next 24-48 hours be going to war in Libya and there has been no national debate, no presidential address, no authorization by Congress. It's sort of insane actually.

At the end all I can say is that I hope things go well - but there are very good reasons to be concerned about the consequences of getting involved in a fight that is decidedly tangential to US interests. I only wish that those so fervently pleading for military prevention were as circumspect about what comes next in this fight. 

Comments

[Michael]

My concerns are the fact that Iran and Jihadist publications are supporting the UN action and US intervention. It was not that long ago we supported the same group who ended up orchestrating the attack on the US in 2001. One major issue I have with the US concern is the claim that thousands of civilians have been killed. I cannot believe this claim since there is no evidence of this happening. Show me the bodies. You cannot make thousands of dead bodies disappear, especially in Libya. Secondly, from all reports it seems that the Libyan army is targeting rebel forces instead of civilian targets. All of this is easy to confirm, yet the proof is not forthcoming. Just beware that out ally today will be out enemy tomorrow.

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I am in complete agreement. What the rebels seem to be requesting is that the U.S. and the international community provide its fire support while it fights the civil war in Libya. People are conflating an internal civil war and the inevitable casualties with a "humanitarian crisis" and the targeting of civilians.

My greatest concern is that it is highly unlikely that the rebels--ragtag and amateur does not begin to describe them-- will be able to launch an effective counterattack, repel the Libyan loyalist forces, and march into Tripoli by their lonesome.

What started with the "no fly zone" request will probably result in us(the U.S. and the West, but mainly the U.S.) being asked to ally ourselves militarily with a movement and culture we essentially know nothing about in terms of ideology and intentions. All we know is that it's anti- Gaddafi, and that seems good enough for us. If and when the ground war continues to grind on or continues to favor Gaddafi, it won't be long before the rebels and well-intentioned people will be calling for the introduction of ground troops (FYI, you're not going to be able to have helicopter support to the rebels, which is the most effective way to take out the Libyan armor, without ground bases inside Libya or pressed against the border in Egypt and Tunisia).

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For nearly six months I've been telling anyone who would listen to expect Obama to either start a war or attach himself to the first convenient one that comes along. Nobody believed me. I said it would be draped in symbolism and would be couched in terms of the global peace army protecting freedom. Even friends rolled their eyes at this one - Obama, the peacenik who bows to every dictator in sight? Absurd. And now here we are - looking at a huge hornet's next we had no business getting involved with. A conflict which began, by SHEER coincidence, on the eighth anniversary of our invasion of Iraq. Just like that conflict, the Libyan campaign was initiated without the congressional approval required by the Constitution. The entire federal government shirks its sworn duties on a daily basis, but in matters of war such dereliction is especially despicable. We send our bravest and strongest to die so that the military-industrial complex can keep rolling in the billions, so that weak men with bodyguards can look like war heroes, so that giant soulless corporations can find new low-wage workers and natural resources to exploit (and later on, new markets to unload their wares). The only moral wars are defensive or retributive ones, and only if their fought by volunteers. There hasn't been even a remotely moral war fought in forty years. Afghanistan *could* have been a moral conflict if we had thrown everything we had into it, and fought it to win with no holds barred. But then we attacked Iraq for no legitimate reason and all but forgot about the war we were already embroiled in. Since then Afghanistan has become a pointless conflict with no end in sight, and the only winners will be whoever controls the poppy fields, natural gas and lithium deposits. If I were president I would withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan, Iraq and any other place where we have no immediate national interest. Incidentally, I consider myself a staunch conservative, as do many others who share my views.

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